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trustspo.bsky.social
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TV news is dying and is being replaced by stuff like this. On the whole I consider this a bad development but we have no control over it:

US Economic policy 2024: we must sign a big beautiful deal with Russia so that we can start a massive trade war with our two closest neighbors

Ratio me away to Valhalla, but practically the entire developed world is experiencing a right-wing surge as progressives lose ground in country after country, in large part because of a unique global inflation crisis that many traditional economists, including the pictured Jason Furman, saw coming.

EV batteries may last 40% longer than expected. I suspect a lot of EVs will have frames degrade before their drivetrains stop being perfectly usable.

Y’all morons are now confusing “insurance executives kill people by kicking them off insurance” with “if someone has to pay more on the public fire insurance plan that justifies murder” and it’s absolutely disgusting, immoral, and pathetic. I have nothing but disdain for this poster.

One of the wildest facets of the last couple years is that not only are we seeing a stealth deleveraging of consumers' housing balance sheet (subdued origination -> amortization rolls along and fixed payments shrink vs rising incomes) but also an outright deleveraging for non-housing debt too.

People sometimes make fun of science that sounds stupid and random. Meanwhile, a study of lizard saliva turned into a peptide medication, which was turned into a diabetes medication, which was turned into a GLP1 weight loss drug, that just became the first therapy every approved for … sleep apnea

VW is slashing capacity in Germany and adding it in South Carolina & Georgia (sorta, via RIVN stake) *VW, UNION AGREE TO REDUCE CAPACITY, AVOID GERMAN PLANT CLOSURES *VOLKSWAGEN WORKERS TO FOREGO PAY RAISES FOR NEXT 6 YEARS: UNION *VW TO CUT CAPACITY AT 5 SITES BY SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND UNITS

It’s not inconceivable to me that the House ends up being so ungovernable that they can’t pass a tax cut extension or even a border bill. Never a good sign when you are threatening to primary people 2 years before the next election when you will literally need their votes many times.

Two movements were ascendant 2006-10 Put crudely: the Tea Party right and the ambitious econ policy agenda of the left (universal HC, climate, infra, aggressive countercyclical fiscal) May be terminal or just a chapter to a longer story, but 2024 marks a functional end for both imo

Bloomberg reports Chinese limitations on drone component exports are starting to take a toll on Ukraine's military capabilities.

📈📉 New Census Working Paper: "The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in U.S. Labor Markets" by Nicholas Bloom, Kyle Handley, and Philip Luck (@philuck.bsky.social) www.census.gov/library/work...

Updating one of my perennial charts. California utility-scale solar begain ~5 years before Texas, but Texas is growing about four years faster than California did. Different markets, different solar resource, a different world of tech in 2007 vs 2012 (not to mention today) but still, striking

“Stepped up antitrust enforcement” should have meant “scrutinize more small deals that can still have big local anticompetitive effects” not “arbitrarily decide that tech companies are too big.”

Per today's ISM report, electrical components have been in shortage now for 50 straight months

After Biden won in 2020 I thought Trump was the one-term aberration with Reagan/Clinton/Bush/Obama as the “incumbents win reelection” norm, but now it seems like Obama was the aberration and post-2006 (?) the norm is unpopular presidents with the public constantly looking for change.

Wow. Here is one to brighten up your morning. The first images of the restored interior of Notre Dame cathedral. Breathtaking. In just five years France did it

I mean this is basically what happened. Warren held up the Fed appointments because she was holding them hostage during the infrastructure negotiations, and on some level that led the Fed to delay liftoff.

I've always been a stretching skeptic

Norway's road transport energy use is now highlighting a really important effect: primary energy consumption falling even while people travel more. Why? Because electrification is energy efficiency. Chart by @robbieandrew.bsky.social

Who is winning and losing in China's quickly electrifying vehicle market? VW, Honda, Nissan all in real trouble. Toyota holding for now but watch next year. Great piece from the Bloomberg News team www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

"Sojourner pointed out 3 years after foster cases started, positive outcomes became clear. The kids were scoring much higher on standardized achievement tests... less turnover in schools... boosted the chances of... moving into permanent home settings by 29%."

How markets see things: The pro-growth stuff that will be difficult to get through a 218ish-215ish House is definitely going to happen, and the anti-growth stuff he’s been saying forever that he’ll do and which he can do unilaterally on day 1 is a bluff for negotiating purposes.

WILL CORPORATIONS FALL IN LINE THIS TIME? In today's newsletter, I wrote about the prospects of a very different corporate reaction to the Trump administration than in 2016. Big biz, tech, much more accepting. Perhaps more eager to jettison ESG-type platitudes. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Nearly fifteen years after DOE LPO gave Tesla its crucial lifeline to build Fremont, catalyzing the global EV sector, we can announce a $6B loan to Rivian for its new Georgia plant. This is the one you’ve all been waiting for. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/b...

Surprising no one, Trump's transition team is compiling an energy package that would 🚢 Approve new LNG export plants 🛢️ Boost oil drilling off the US coast & on federal land 🚗 Repeal tax credits for EV ⚡️ Remove clean power plant standards www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Permitting is a big hurdle to building a domestic supply chain of critical minerals. Yesterday, the US Bureau of Land Management rolled out a process they hope will streamline mine permitting on federal land: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

California’s ultra-low property tax is rent control for the richest people in the world. High-tax Texas has more inventory and more affordability for those who don’t yet own. It’s always tricky to be in favor of higher taxes, but in housing it helps our kids.

Joe Biden loses to Xi Jinping in battle for Latin America https://www.ft.com/content/b9cfdae3-c276-4184-adbb-707c5e460fa7

Underrated fact: FDI flows to China have completely evaporated since peaking in Q1 '22 (peak year was 2021) with inbound FDI actually net negative in Q2 of this year (small rebound in Q3).

Republicans may end up cutting the consumer EV tax credit but saving the manufacturing credits tied to jobs in their districts — in other words: ‘What do we want? No EVs! Where should we build them? Here!’ @opinion.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The only adult in the Trump administration is going to be the stock market.