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The effect of US #tariffs on the supply chain vary significantly. Retaliation targeting final & intermediate goods = more GDP loss & more persistent inflation than retaliation targeting only final goods. N Gnocato, V Gunnella, C Montes-Galdon, T Schuler, G Stamato cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

VoxEU editor-in-chief @baldwinre.bsky.social explains how #US #trade #policy has become about grievance, not growth In the latest Vox Talks Economics he joins @talknormal.co.uk to discuss his new book The Great Trade Hack and the rise of the Grievance Doctrine 🎧 cepr.org/multimedia/g... #EconSky

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

In #Uruguay, youth report increased worry but reduced loneliness as access to high-speed internet grows. Dissatisfaction with oneself and increased risky behaviours are behind the detrimental effect. @karicolombo.bsky.social, E Failache, M Querejeta cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Substantial #immigration into politically fragile democracies can exacerbate institutional weaknesses. Democratic decline tends to increase emigration, potentially hindering prospects for institutional recovery. Assaf Razin cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

R Arbolino & P Di Caro find that the effectiveness of EU cohesion funds is reduced when geopolitical risks from the US and China are taken into account, though the effect varies greatly across countries. Policy should be coordinated and flexible to withstand shocks. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Households & forecasters react differently to #Fed policy, with households placing less weight upon it. Household #inflation expectations rise when the FOMC expresses concerns about inflation. E Granziera, V H Larsen, G Meggiorini, @leonardo-melosi.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Advanced economies are still dealing with labour shortages post-pandemic. Job quality based on job insecurity, poor working conditions, and exposure to health risks reduces the attractiveness of high-vacancy jobs. O Causa, E Soldani @oecd-ocde.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

The #tariffs of the size currently being proposed by the #US administration and the assumed retaliation may have significant short-run and long-run costs on output levels, #inflation rates, and #welfare. Stephane Auray, Michael B Devereux, ‪@eyquem2.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Globalisation & 'regression to the mean' should be taken seriously, alongside #inflation targeting adoption, as explanations for low inflation from 1989-2021. Inflation targeting must evolve to survive & maintain credibility. S S. Bhalla, K Bhasin, P Loungani cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

Credit support policies in the form of credit guarantees and central bank credit lines can help firms substitute in the event of evaporating external credit for domestic borrowing. Miguel Acosta-Henao, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

The blackout in Spain & Portugal was a stark reminder of the fragility of #energy systems & the risk of #renewables being turned into a scapegoat. European energy needs to be modernised through #digitalisation, expanded storage, and interconnection. Cristina Peñasco cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

A monetary union shapes the impact of economic #uncertainty on its member countries by providing a nominal anchor that effectively eliminates price level #risk from country-specific uncertainty. @bborn.bsky.social, Luis Huxel, Gernot Müller, Johannes Pfeifer cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Data from West #Germany from the 1960s to 2013 show that the child penalty has increased over time because women are earning more, so the opportunity cost of motherhood has grown. Ulrich Glogowsky, Emanuel Hansen, Dominik Sachs, Holger Lüthen cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

F Maruhn, M Konradt, @schularick.bsky.social, C Trebesch, & J Wingenbach find some countries consistently earn up to 4 percentage points higher average nominal returns than other countries. The drivers of differences in how nations invest require further research. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

Post-Brexit, firms located further from the Irish border, and thus more exposed to the full economic consequences, experienced greater negative effects including lower growth expectations & reduced workforce. Hang Do, Kiet Tuan Duong, Luu Duc Toan Huynh, Nam Tuan Vu cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Despite #tariff warnings since Trump's inauguration, it wasn't until 2 April that #equity prices fell significantly. Uncertainty about actual implementation of #trade restrictions may have been a key factor in the lagged response. J Feveile Adolfsen & T Harr cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

The European Commission's Spring Forecast depicts a resilient #EU economy. However, tariffs & uncertainty weigh on trade & investment. By leveraging its strengths the EU can move beyond resilience and maybe even thrive. Maarten Verwey & Kristian Orsini @ec.europa.eu cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

G Campbell, Á Gallagher, & R Grossman use 1869-1929 London stock exchange data of companies governed in London but operated in Latin America to show that the location of governance for a firm has a more material impact on valuation than the location of operations. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

Long-term care partnership contracts that protect a portion of participants' assets while still allowing them to qualify for #Medicaid have increased insurance uptake & reduced Medicaid spending in states that have introduced them. Joan Costa-i-Font, Nilesh Raut cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

VoxEU Editor-in-Chief @baldwinre.bsky.social introduces The Great Trade Hack, a new CEPR eBook that argues that Trump's trade policy, driven by a 'Grievance Doctrine', is emotionally coherent but economically incoherent and won't solve any of the US' problems. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

@sophiehatte.bsky.social @jordanloper.bsky.social @ttaylor-econ.bsky.social use the staggered introduction of Free Basics across sub-Saharan Africa to show that access to a major social media platform (Facebook) was key in increasing female political representation. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Ai Jun Hou, Lucio Sarno, & Xiaoxia Ye develop a novel source of exchange rate predictability for a multi-country model incorporating the global #trade imbalance network to uncover new insights into currency #risk premia. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

While cross-border lending by Chinese banks to EMDEs was highly correlated with bilateral #trade flows prior to the pandemic, there has since been a marked correlation shift from cross-border lending and trade, to lending and FDI. C Casanova, E Cerutti, S K Pradhan cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Strong coordination of wage setting in Nordic countries has been maintained through pattern bargaining. However, this may come into conflict with the future needs of labour reallocation due to aging populations & higher demand for military personnel. Lars Calmfors cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

New VoxTalks Economics episode! Does growth drive trust in government? Tim Besley (LSE & CEPR) explains the deep, lasting connection between economic performance and how much people trust their leaders. 🎙️ Listen here: cepr.org/multimedia/g... #EconSky #Podcast

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

Specialised commercial banks played a crucial role in helping firms diversify away from Chinese supply chains faster and more successfully following the 2018-2019 US #tariffs on #China. Laura Alfaro, Mariya Brussevich, Camelia Minoiu, Andrea Presbitero cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

Big techs' role in the #AI supply chain raises questions about competition, operational resilience, cyber security, and financial stability. Big tech AI supply chains also risk stifling socially beneficial #innovation. Leonardo Gambacorta, Vatsala Shreeti cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

@ershovd.bsky.social, Yanting He, & Stephan Seiler analyse over 100 million tweets from 2014 to 2021 and find that the vast majority of commercial content on social media is not appropriately disclosed by the influencers who post it. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

Up to now, the financial sector lacks adequate tools for short-term #climate #risk analysis. The Network for Greening the Financial System released its first set of climate scenarios, which look at outcomes of climate risks over the next 5 years. T Emambakhsh et al. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 18 days ago • 0 comments

Pseudo-wealth (wealth not backed by real economic resources) can rapidly inflate or deflate, leading to volatility in spending & potential economic instability. M Guzman & @josephestiglitz.bsky.social show pseudo-wealth can have consequences for societal #welfare. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

Conventional wisdom says that #uncertainty leads to economic contractions, but L Gambetti et al. show that the type of uncertainty matters. When uncertainty accompanies consumer disagreement about economic conditions, the economy remains stable. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

⭐Every CEPR #PolicyInsight also has an accompanying summary on VoxEU written by the author! Read the latest column here: cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

US #tariffs could lay the foundations for a greater international role for the #euro. To sustain this, Europe needs to accelerate its reform agenda, as outlined by Draghi, & advance the savings and investment union. R Cardani, M Kühl, J Peppel-Srebrny, R Strauch cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

In the long run, US tariffs & countermeasures by its trading partners could lead to output losses of 1% of global GDP. In the short term, tariffs act as negative supply shocks for tariffing countries & negative demand shocks for targeted countries. D Cerdeiro et al. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

The performance of stock markets often appears worse in the daily news than it actually is because of 2 main factors: journalists tend to focus on major events, and the daily performance of indices is negatively skewed. Antonio Ciccone, @felixrusche.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

In the US, WFH has already increased full-time disability #employment levels by over a quarter million people. Hybrid & fully remote working could increase labour supply in North America by ~1 million+ with similar gains possible in Europe. N Bloom, G Dahl, D Rooth cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

@yveszenou.bsky.social @monashuniversity.bsky.social joins @talknormal.co.uk to discuss whether friendship can change our political beliefs. Based on an experiment at #SciencesPo, this VoxTalks explores how even brief connections can bridge ideological divides. cepr.org/multimedia/d... #EconSky

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Following the 2012 #sanctions on #Iran, workers in industries with greater pre-sanctions exposure to international #trade experienced a significant rise in informal employment compared to those in less-exposed industries. Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi, Roberto Nisticò cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Stelios Michalopoulos, Elie Murard, Elias Papaioannou, Seyhun Orcan Sakalli map Greek displacement after 1922 and suggest that forced relocation can have lasting impacts by altering the value placed on transferable human capital investments. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Federal subsidies to state and local municipalities in the US during COVID-19 significantly improved individual #health outcomes as subsidies were channelled toward critical health care inputs. Jeffrey Clemens & Anwita Mahajan @ucsandiego.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

Even with partial suspensions, the US #tariffs are set to trigger sharp contractions in #trade, significant welfare losses (especially for the US), and major disruptions to global supply chains. @fpconteduca.bsky.social, Michele Mancini, Alessandro Borin cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 26 days ago • 2 comments

Robert N McCauley argues 14 major central banks holding roughly $1.9 trillion in US safe assets could form a #dollar coalition of the willing in the event of dysfunction in dollar funding markets. An inferior international lender of last resort is better than none. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 27 days ago • 2 comments

During periods of high #inflation, #monetarypolicy can be more effective in reducing inflation as frequent price changes lower the impact of monetary policy on economic activity. @peterkaradi.bsky.social @galonuno.bsky.social @ernestopasten.bsky.social et al. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

Short-term visas, especially for business or professional purposes, significantly increase the likelihood of firms innovating in both products and services, with the effect much larger in African countries compared to the rest of the world. Linguère Mously Mbaye cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

Economists @cathrinmohr.bsky.social ky.social (Bonn University) & Christoph Trebesch (@kiel.institute) talk to @talknormal.co.uk al.co.uk about how global power politics are reshaping economics—and what researchers should focus on next. Listen: cepr.org/multimedia/w... #Podcast #EconSky

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

#Carbon pricing has unequal impacts across European regions. It is associated with a significant decline in output and a rise in #unemployment, as well as increasing the vote shares of extremist and #populist parties. Maximilian Konradt, Giacomo Mangiante cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

Data from #Norway show that lower profitability in the fossil energy sector due to falling oil prices led to reallocation of R&D resources within firms, triggering a shift towards clean #innovation. Esther Ann Bøler, Katinka Holtsmark, Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

During the recent #inflation episode in the euro area, a tiered system for remuneration of bank reserves would have allowed for a significant reduction in interest transfers to the banks, while keeping central bank operating procedure unchanged. P De Grauwe, Y Ji cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 32 days ago • 0 comments

How do monetary policy shocks affect workers' wages and employment? When it comes to employment, young firms are especially sensitive to monetary policy shocks, and wages of workers at large firms react more than those of workers at smaller firms. A Bobasu, A Repele cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 32 days ago • 0 comments

Data from Chile show that having at least one female teacher in a #STEM technical and vocational #education and training programme significantly increases the likelihood of female students pursuing STEM higher education. M Paola Sevilla, P Bordón, F Ramirez-Espinoza cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

submitted 33 days ago • 0 comments