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webberweather.bsky.social
Gov't meteorologist. UNCC & NCSU Alum. Specializes in Climate Dynamics & S2S variability. Opinions are my own & not a reflection of my employer. webberweather.com
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Looking way ahead to later in April/closer to the climo peak of the tornado season: The forecast circumglobal wave pattern & global tropical precip in week 3 on the Euro Weeklies has a lot in common with the Thompson & Roundy (2023) composite 2 weeks prior to violent tornado outbreaks in the US

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

The early April -PNA/-NAO pattern is imho largely being triggered by low frequency forcing from the Western Tropical Pacific & downward propagation of stratospheric circulation anomalies from the preceding final warming event. There’s probably more of this where it came from in April.

submitted 6 days ago • 2 comments

The fingerprints of lower frequency forcing from the tropics is all over this -PNA/-NAO pattern in early April

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

Tonight’s wind event on the East Slopes of the Organ mtns in southern New Mexico is likely to be a memorable one. With a 976mb low over SW Kansas & 500mb flow of 110-115 knots, it’s nearly outside the parameter space of an extreme (85+ mph) wind event here since 1951 (n=22). 😬

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

Thursday Night & Friday’s wind storm is certainly trying to do its best impression of the historic December 1951 event in southern New Mexico. We measured 95 mph winds at WSMR Post in this storm. 😬

submitted 18 days ago • 1 comment

I still like the idea of a sudden snap into spring this year over the Eastern US The Pacific jet will run out of gas/+U influx from the tropics & extratropics w/ -EAMT next week & then the MJO settling into the Maritime Continent in week 3 Liable to see a shift to a -PNA pattern by mid-March or so

submitted 38 days ago • 2 comments

I came up w/ list of analogs for this year's tornado season & this is what the 1°x1° tornado track density anomaly composite looks like over the CONUS. These analogs are highlighting an anomalous eastward shift in tornado activity this yr, w/ the mid-MS Valley most favored compared to normal.

submitted 42 days ago • 3 comments

Beyond 2011, I took a closer look at this year's mid-late winter AAMa distribution to see if there were any signals that could be gleaned going into this spring's tornado season. Here's how this year's Jan-Feb 200mb zonal (U) wind anomalies stacks up against a subset of (weighted) U200 analogs.

submitted 43 days ago • 1 comment

This winter has taught us (myself included) to respect patterns like this w/ big chunks of the tropospheric polar vortex getting trapped underneath a strong/persistent block Oftentimes when this appears, we don’t get last second north + west shifts The next winter storm is another reminder of that

submitted 43 days ago • 1 comment

Wrt this year's upcoming tornado season, it's honestly a little troubling how close this year's low frequency ocean *and* atmosphere base states are to 2011. Of course, minus the fact that the Gulf is much warmer this time around 😬

submitted 43 days ago • 5 comments

There’s a very strong subseasonal tropical forcing component to the stratospheric polar vortex disruption mid to late month that models are only now starting to truly see. The Pacific MJO -> weaker polar vortex teleconnection is also greatly enhanced in La Niña. This is a pretty classic evolution

submitted 56 days ago • 1 comment

Most of the classic -NAO precursor signals are in place going into the 2nd half of Feb Pacific MJO orbit ✅ Large Scandinavian ridge anomaly ✅ Equatorward shift & negatively tilted N Atlantic storm track ✅ -PNA ✅ Also the Pacific MJO to -NAO teleconnection is stronger in Niña winters like this yr

submitted 59 days ago • 3 comments

This pattern is cheeks. Nowhere near cold enough to snow and not warm enough to really feel like spring & get severe weather ⚡️ Just lots of cold rain 🌧️ ☔️

submitted 114 days ago • 5 comments

Pretty typical response to Maritime Continent - West Pacific convective heating later in week 2-3 w/ west-central US trough, SE ridge, & GOA ridge axis extending into Alaska.

submitted 120 days ago • 0 comments

Updated CANSIPS & CFSv2 500mb forecasts for this winter 👀 I generally agree w/ them overall. Pretty close to the (weighted) analog fcst I made last week. A warm Indo-Pacific, weak -ENSO, wQBO, & strong stratosphere polar vortex are some reasons why I think this winter will have a more +TNH flavor

submitted 120 days ago • 0 comments

I found it very interesting that these same 2 subsets of years, with vastly different mid-late winter temperature patterns over the CONUS, were all viable analogs for this upcoming winter.

submitted 120 days ago • 1 comment