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wxjerdman.bsky.social
Senior meteorologist @weatherchannel. M.S. Colorado State Univ.; B.S. UW-Madison; Insightful. Interesting. Impactful. Weather. Opinions are mine only, not of my employer.
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Most extreme Opening Day weather: - Series snowed out, games moved to another stadium in a "Major League" coincidence. - An OF & 1B ump lost a fly ball in a snow squall. - A helicopter once dried a field after over a foot of snow. - A snowball fight -> forfeit.

Couple of record warm notables from Tuesday: - Portland, OR tied their March record (80˚), an average high for July 7. - Death Valley (101˚) had their first triple digit high of the year. They average 147 days a year with a triple-digit high, usually from mid-April through mid-October.

Now at least 24 killed in some of the worst wildfires S. Korea has seen. Unfortunately, just a few showers Thursday, then a cold front and not much more precip into early April.

The last soaking rain in Corpus Christi, Texas, was Jan. 9, almost 11 weeks ago. No measurable rain this month, so far. So, it only stands to reason they're in the second highest level of flooding rainfall threat through early Friday AM, per NWS/WPC. Typical Texas feast or famine rain scenario.

Not everyday that there's a 15% hatched hail probability in thee Pacific Northwest

Falling trees are a danger in high winds, whether from t-storms, tropical cyclones or from a strong low-pressure system. 61 of 65 wind-related deaths from Helene in the U.S. were from falling trees, per NHC. Latest case, Monday AM in southern Louisiana.

Monday, Lewiston, ID had its record warmest March low. (55˚) Today, Phoenix could record its earliest 100˚ in any year (March 26, 1988). It's among dozens of record highs possible through Thursday in the West.

Badly-needed rain for drought stricken central and South Texas is on the way tomorrow, the first rain of the month for some. But in parts of coastal Texas, it could be "too much of a good thing", with a threat for flash flooding.

Yes, Florida can have hailstorms, too. 33 years ago today was a whopper for the Orlando metro, their second of the month.

50 years ago this morning, an F3 tornado tore through Atlanta, including the Governor's Mansion, during Monday morning rush, no less.

112 tornadoes confirmed by NWS in the outbreak that began 1 week ago this afternoon (March 14-16). 39% of those (44) were rated at least EF2. Combined tornado tracks from AL+AR+MO+MS = 1,107 miles, longer than driving distance from Atlanta to Boston. Full recap: 👇

Most of the time, you'll see a tree fall onto or through a roof in high winds. In the Maryland Heights, MO EF2 tornado, it looks like the roof actually went through the tree. (Credit: NWS-St. Louis)

Update: NWS has now confirmed 109 tornadoes from the March 14-16 outbreak across 14 states. The combined track lengths in just 4 of those states are over 1,000 miles. Damage surveys continue. Kudos to the incredible effort of NWS staff before, during and after the storms.

>100 confirmed tornadoes from the March 14-16 US severe weather outbreak. A significant event. But... Those who think tornadoes are the predominant driver of annual US severe convective storm (SCS) losses are mistaken. In any given year, hail accounts for 50-80% of SCS insurance claims.

Two of Mississippi's strong #tornadoes last Sat. March 15 crossed paths within 41 minutes of each other in western Covington County, per NWS-Jackson surveys.

Speaking of March heat, the peak of what weather historian Christopher Burt called "probably the most extraordinary anomalous heat event in U.S. history" was occurring about this time 13 years ago.

Wednesday felt more like the first full day of summer, rather than the last full day of winter, in Pittsburgh. Record warmest, so early.

Update: 105 tornadoes now confirmed by NWS in 14 states from the March 14-16 outbreak. Surveys in multiple areas continue, so that tally will likely rise in the coming days. Details and notables: 👇

Serious "weather envy" for Omaha this AM. - Just after 3am CT: Quarter size hail just north of the city - Now: Changeover to thundersnow + strong winds.

So far, 91 tornadoes have been confirmed by NWS damage surveys from the March 14-16 outbreak, with surveys continuing. A significant fraction of those were rated "strong", and several had long tracks. Both signatures of major outbreaks. weather.com/storms/torna...

During the day of March 14, damaging wind gusts up to over 80 mph kicked up large amounts of dust across the plains, greatly reducing visibility. Large smoke plumes from wildfires are visible from weather satellites against the backdrop of the dust (image 1).

Perhaps a chilly Opening Day ⚾ next Thursday in the Northeast, Great Lakes? Maybe #MLB shouldn't start in March, unless it's in a retractable roof stadium or in the South. 🤷

100 years ago today: America's deadliest tornado, the Tri-State tornado. And here's what some recent research has found...

On this date 73 years ago: America's first public "tornado bulletin" was issued, now known as a tornado watch.

So far, NWS has confirmed 48 tornadoes from the March 14-16 outbreak in 10 different states. 27 of those were "strong" (EF2+), including the first 2 EF4s of 2025. Damage surveys will continue for the next several days. Kudos to the hard-working NWS staff both covering, then surveying this event.

It’s March 15 in southeast Wisconsin. Pretty sure this is either wildfire smoke or dust. Air has a bit of a funky odor.

2 March windstorms...10 days apart. Last 24 hours ending 12z: - 977 reports of non t-storm wind gusts - 112 reports of non t-storm wind damage Peak gusts: - 95 mph near Organ, NM - 89 mph near Pine Springs, TX - 83 mph near Frederick, OK

If the high winds & low humidity weren't enough, NWS & SPC also mentioned initial thundershowers this afternoon in the central Plains could produce little rain over an area if they move so rapidly, instead acting like summer Southwest "dry thunderstorms" whose lightning could ignite wildfires.

Unfortunately, today will be the second straight Pi Day severe weather outbreak, yet again affecting parts of the Midwest. Here's what happened one year ago today.

The Storm Prediction Center has two consecutive "days" (Fri pm - Sat. night) of level 4 severe t-storm risk in their outlooks. Since 2019, that level 4 risk has only appeared an average of 11-12 days a year, typically from March - June. That last happened in the Dec. 28, 2024 South outbreak.

As was the case last week, high winds will be a calling card of the upcoming storm. Already an impressive swath of NWS high wind watches and warnings covering a population of ~30 million, including Dallas, OKC, KC and Chicago.

35 years ago today, a violent tornado outbreak included the earliest in spring F(or EF)5 tornadoes on record for the Plains, and a state tornado path length record. The photos, video of Hesston, Kansas, are forever burned in my memory.

Why a severe t-storm warning from the National Weather Service could save your life...

In addition to the significant threat of severe t-storms, high fire danger is in place in the southern High Plains into the weekend. Today and Friday look particularly dangerous, including at least parts of the I-35 corridor. (Outlooks: NOAA/NWS/SPC)

Before Sandy, a March storm rightly earned the name "Superstorm" this week in weather history.

Imagine a major city buried in #snow before the advent of snowplows, or even the basic forecasting infrastructure we may take for granted today. So went the Blizzard of 1888, 137 years ago this week in NYC.

The "everything but the kitchen sink" 🚰March storm parade rolls on. I: Last week II: This Fri. - Sun. III: Mid-next week? (more cold air to work with on northern flank?)

It appears this morning's central Florida tornado was the first in the peninsula since Milton, per SPC's data. Only other one statewide since Milton: an EF0 in the Panhandle's Santa Rosa County late last Tuesday night.

There was a brush fire in a marsh in the western Milwaukee suburb of Brookfield Sunday afternoon. No outdoor burning in these areas today, please.

2 strong tornadoes, 20 days & 3 miles apart. This harkens back to spring 2020 in Mississippi.

NWS is forecasting about two dozen daily record highs in jeopardy today in the N. Plains and upper Midwest. Perhaps 80s in Nebraska & 60s in the U.P.

Cyclone Garance recently struck Réunion in the South Indian Ocean. Initial insured losses estimated at EUR160-200M (USD170-220M). This follows Cyclone Chido that struck Mayotte in December and cost insurers >USD675M. 2024/25 becomes the costliest TC season on record for insurers in the basin.

So far, NWS has confirmed 21 tornadoes among the 428 reports of severe t-storms from March 3-5. Surveys continue, so those tallies will tick up a bit more. Only one strong tornado (EF2; southeast MS), but responsible for 4 injuries. A reminder that manufactured homes are not safe in tornadoes.

Don't worry, it's not in the forecast. But it did happen on this date in history. And it wasn't a "fish storm".

Wind was the most widespread impact from this March storm. Over the last 24 hours ending ~ 6a CT: - 739 reports of high winds (not from t-storms) - 172 reports of wind damage (again, not from t-storms) Peak non-t-storm wind gusts: - 93 mph near Hugoton, KS - 89 mph Camp Creek, TN

The value of mesoscale networks of observations, or "mesonets": One location in the Oklahoma Mesonet (Fittstown) reported a peak gust of 87 mph earlier this AM with a squall line of severe t-storms.

One challenge NWS offices have today: Bow echoes and embedded rotations within a squall line of severe t-storms that can -> tornadoes quickly. Heed any severe t-storm warnings just as you would tornado warnings. It doesn't take a tornado to knock a tree down, possibly on your home or vehicle.

On this date in weather history: A North Dakota blizzard eventually -> an iconic photo.