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zagreus4816.bsky.social
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A London-based man won a $24m Ukrainian state contract for a project meant to defend Dnipro power plant from Russian attacks while secretly helping Moscow’s spy services to launder money and evade sanctions. Wild scoop w/ my colleague Miles Johnson @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/57a3...

I saw this in person back in April. My favorite touch was his head hanging behind his shoulder.

Putin has staged another performance concerning the "missile": kremlin.ru/events/presi.... He bragged about the specs and promised to start serial production. A master bullshi**er, he delights in intimidation. You can tell from his demeanor here that he thinks his tactic has worked.

My wonderful SAIS colleague @sarotte.bsky.social is here! You should follow her! And make sure to read this great book: www.amazon.com/Not-One-Inch....

Ukrainian forces used U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles in an overnight strike on Russia's Bryansk region, targeting ammunition storage, including North Korean supplies, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, reports Politico. www.politico.eu/article/ukra...

Kursk: Russia Prepares Airfields for the Impact The announcement permitting Ukraine to strike inside Russia with ATACMS came just yesterday, but evidence suggests Russia has been fortifying the Kursk military airbase since early October. Analysis from Frontelligence Insight🧵:

I spoke to @mbudjeryn.bsky.social about Ukraine's rumored nuclear weapons development capacity, as reported last week by The Times. She explained the science, the industrial needs, the practical obstacles, and more. Really enjoyed our conversation! meduza.io/en/feature/2...

Early reports suggest that Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles may come with specific geographic limitations. This nuance might significantly influence the outcomes of their use. Here’s a breakdown of what we can expect, given that the information about limitations is correct🧵:

Permission to strike with ATACMS came as timely as it did in October 2023, when the counteroffensive was essentially over. Don’t expect a major shift on the battlefield, as the nature of the setbacks for a Ukrainian army comes from different issues, especially if it’s limited to a Kursk only

“President Biden has authorized the first use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia, U.S. officials said. The weapons are likely to be initially employed against Russian and North Korean troops in…Kursk” www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/u...

The Abkhazia rollercoaster continues as President Aslan Bzhania walks back Saturday's comments about stepping down to appease protesters. Now he insists that he's staying put and talking up the unrest's threat to relations with Moscow. tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...

Hamas has reportedly lost contact with field leadership in the Gaza Strip overseeing Israeli hostages, and has not been able to communicate with them for about a month, one senior Hamas official tells Qatari Al-Araby Al-Jadeed

Property sales are now down -48% to -82% YOY across the country with rural areas hit the absolute hardest. An absolute disaster for people wanting to sell their homes and we know exactly who to blame.

🇰🇵 North Korea may send up to 100,000 troops to Ukraine, according to Bloomberg citing G20 intelligence. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I am working on a book "A Faithful President: The Founders vs. the Originalists" on presidential power, the mythology of the "unitary executive theory," and an alternative history emphasizing checks & balances. I've put together a Presidential Power Pack (#POTUS Scholars): go.bsky.app/5VHVDa9

“An immense strategic unknown about a depopulating world is whether pervasive aging, anemic birthrates, and prolonged depopulation will affect the readiness of shrinking societies to defend themselves and their willingness to sustain casualties in doing so.“ www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-de...

🇺🇸❗️Russian-born Boris Epshteyn proposed to US President-elect Donald Trump that he himself creates a special envoy for peace in Ukraine. Trump himself has not yet rejected the proposal, but has not yet approved it, The New York Times reports. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/15/u...

Here is why any peace deal with Putin is going to be very difficult to achieve. He is not merely interested in territorial gains or a no NATO pledge. These are the demands I would expect him to make in any future negotiation: - Partial Ukrainian disarmarment (a demand in the Istanbul 2022 draft)

If you want to follow some lovely Ukrainians on Bluesky, this is the list i have put together❤️ go.bsky.app/8iJqzrP

✨ 3 Legendary Units Campaign ✨ Support our new fundraiser for 3 units: 🦅 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholodny Yar" 🦉 Special Unit "Timur" (GUR MO) 🔥 Tactical Group "Adam" Donate to the units here: donorbox.org/3-legendary-... Our campaign of $50k is a part of Ravens Of Hope BIG fundraiser

I argue in Engelsberg Ideas that getting Putin to talk peace does not in itself get us very far: engelsbergideas.com/notebook/fiv.... He probably will talk. And ask to take peacefully what he hasn’t been able to take by force.

As for the news from Abkhazia, the protesters have not dispersed. Earlier, the opposition gave President Aslan Bzhania an hour to resign, but he refused and then allegedly fled to a Russian military base. Video is from a few hours ago.

A thought-provoking passage on many levels; some political, some psychological.

A Russian priest urges soldiers not to listen to the "devilish words" of godless North Koreans who have arrived from distant lands, claiming they have brought "some kind of plague to our land." It's almost beyond comment at this point.

I highly recommend following Noelreports if you are interested in a news feed related to the Russo-Ukrainian war. I have never seen them spread misinformation, and they do a daily recap ("sitrep") threads as a collection of daily news.

I have begun to assemble a list of high quality OSINT accounts from Twitter that have migrated or added a presence here. The list will grow as I find the rest. Give them a follow here: go.bsky.app/NX7M9nT

The second part of Frontelligence Insight's investigation, based on leaked emails and documents provided by the Ukrainian Cyber Resistance, reveals new details about Russia's 2022 struggles to produce critical Su-57 components due to reliance on Western parts. 🧵Thread with investigation details:

Posting my response here to the Texas National Security Review roundtable on my book, To Run the World: tnsr.org/roundtable/b....

⚡️Russia won't start negotiations until it regains control of the Kursk region, WP writes. The Kremlin reportedly refuses to let Kursk become a bargaining chip over Ukrainian territories, with orders to reclaim it by January 20, ahead of Trump's inauguration. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/1...

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave an interview to Ukrainian Radio Main points: ◾️ Negotiations with Russia are possible only if Ukraine is not alone and has a strong position;

To kick-start Bluesky, search for feeds + starter packs on topics you're interested in. I've got this feed with 2800 scientists who study climate + 8 starter packs on climate-related topics. Use SkyFollowerBridge to find your X follows + BlueArk to move your tweets over. bsky.app/profile/did:...

Germany's cost for not supporting Ukraine and letting Russia win will be 10-20 times greater than what Germany is currently spending, according to the Kiel Institute: t.co/w36ZarnYPL

Our Ukrainian forces urgently need $120,000 for vital engineering equipment to secure positions, with only $20,000 raised so far. Excavators and cranes save manpower and keep troops safe. Please donate and share to help reach our goal! ⤵️ www.paypal.com/donate?campa... Please like and repost

In the coming days, Frontelligence Insight will release the second part of our investigation into Su-57 production struggles, showing how component shortages nearly caused missed production targets in 2022. Our first report exposed the program's reliance on Western parts

The argument "without Western aid to Ukraine, the war will end" is categorically false, as anyone who has ever spent time in Ukraine talking to Ukrainians could tell you. Without Western aid, the war will continue, but thousands more Ukrainian civilians and soldiers will die.

Hopefully, more people continue to join Bluesky and leave behind the mess that is X.