I think any smart analysis of the situation in europe needs to step back and consider what russia has actually accomplished in ukraine in the last 3 years:
-taken some territory
-suffered so many losses it has instituted conscription and dusted off armor/vehicles from '60s
-lost its own territory
-taken some territory
-suffered so many losses it has instituted conscription and dusted off armor/vehicles from '60s
-lost its own territory
Reposted from
B. A. Friedman
300,000!? Who is invading Europe in this scenario, the PLA?
Comments
Also, add to the list
- destabilized democracy in US
- made NATO 5th atricle questionable
-a heavily sanctioned economy
ukraine has fought with lots of materiel from the west but nearly all the manpower is ukrainian. european countries w/modern hardware (& nuclear deterrent) are not vulnerable to russian conventional attack imo
- post-Avdiiva, where a localized Ukrainian collapse occurred and they straight up lacked any mobility to capitalize
- Vovchansk, where they lacked the mobility to advance
- Kursk, where reserves took forever to move
Maybe they should form a defense pack with Ukraine who will attack Russia from their flank, if say, Poland or Georgia is next.
But the battleground states would still bleed. A lot.
The risk that awoke me a few minutes ago is that of having to fight a bloody, destructive war on our own soil, with our small and aging population.
The rationale would be to discredit and roll back NATO, EU or both. That could be quite achievable even if conquest isn’t.
But dictators have a history of staring wars they end up losing.
And even a NATO victory parade on the Red Square could not bring back our dead or restore our ruined cities.
It is to avoid having to fight in the first place.
That primary mission is now at a serious risk.
But undoubtedly we will make arrangements of our own, if Europe dithers once again.
I say "never again." If that requires the capability to burn all the largest cities of Russia with atomic hellfire, then so be it.
Little green men wont work.
But powerful thrust with all in approach could take over Baltics, or at least half of them before european NATO can react.
All eastern flank states.
But Baltics lack strategic depth.