What Europe can deploy now would be additive, not transformative, given existing Ukrainian military capability. But, you have to start somewhere. The question for policymakers will be: what is this force backed by, and what happens if it is attacked. 6/ - ThreadSky

michaelkofman.bsky.social • 107 days ago

What Europe can deploy now would be additive, not transformative, given existing Ukrainian military capability. But, you have to start somewhere. The question for policymakers will be: what is this force backed by, and what happens if it is attacked. 6/

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leftpeggers.bsky.social•107 days ago

Are boots on the ground needed? Surely more useful aid would be good no’s of modern jets and a promise to keep the skies clear. A clear message to Russia, no more missiles or drones. Without those, Russia will surely lose?

benniepie.bsky.social•107 days ago

Yes, boots on the ground are needed. To deter a further/larger invasion that Russia might be tempted to inflict on Ukraine.

In much the same way NATO has troops stationed on it's eastern flank acting as a deterrent in case Russia is tempted to invade.

leftpeggers.bsky.social•107 days ago

Would significant AirPower. It so the same thing?

mediapundit.bsky.social•96 days ago

Would European capabilities like the F-35 be transformative?

erikelmgren.bsky.social•107 days ago

For Army yes.

For Navy and Airforce it would be quite transformative.

michaelkofman.bsky.social•107 days ago

Bottom line, while I’m skeptical that European nations can deploy and sustain a large force in country, I also don’t think they have to. The initial requirements are not insurmountable and should not be exaggerated as an alibi for doing nothing. 7/

rampanen.bsky.social•103 days ago

With tactical nukes on planes, which means either USA or France, are the only viable deterrent in Ukraine.

inkro.bsky.social•107 days ago

I think back of the napkin math is that the combined EU contribution is something like a division's worth right? Also, unless you're really good at deconfliction channels (and guess who had a ton of experience doing this with the Russians?) You're opening the forces up in theater for bombardment.

erikelmgren.bsky.social•107 days ago

If we're talking mid-to-long term I don't fully understand the skepticism. It would require a new type of force recruited for the mission but it's not that different to have your troops in a friendly nearby country as in some part of your own country.

It's very different if the locals shoot at you.

michaelkofman.bsky.social•107 days ago

This is just back of the envelope thinking about requirements. I’m cognizant of the risks and dilemmas any deployment would entail. I welcome other colleagues’ views on the subject who know European forces much better than I do.

jjaok.bsky.social•106 days ago

What are your thoughts on air and navy? 300 jets (100 operational) + battle group docked in Romania in the Black Sea to deter flashpoints in Odessa, Serbia or Bosporus? The Balkan peace keeping force was 60.000 in size. Might be a good blueprint to build on

poprygozhin.bsky.social•107 days ago

I think 3 brigades would actually be fairly transformative because that might change rules of engagement in an area, with russians either avoiding them like the plague or specifically trying to capture them alive

robzaagman.bsky.social•106 days ago

@skyview.social unroll

chrisgallon.bsky.social•107 days ago

I am hardly qualified in this company. But surely the requirement here is to ensure any Russian attack fails while pinning Putin's forces in place. If we provided rapid deployment of 300 strike aircraft and attack helicopters and forward air observers plus some troops would this not be enough.

unprogressisteeur.bsky.social•104 days ago

@unroll.skywriter.blue unroll please

unroll.skywriter.blue•104 days ago

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robredotruthe.bsky.social•107 days ago

don't u also think talk about troop numbers misses the point that the current battlefield would look seriously different if european air forces were engaged, even just 5/10% of current capacity?

nategator.bsky.social•102 days ago

Not really part of this discussion as I'm not an expert. But I think the issue is credibility. Europe theoretical. France + Germany + UK kind of credible. NATO is even more credible, but that is a no. If anything positive w/ T's heel turn, it's Europe needs to onshore defense & institutionalize.

jasft.bsky.social•107 days ago

It's a trap but we need to get in there to train up our drone teams.

alarcos.bsky.social•107 days ago

Also, we should not underestimate the morale boost for the Ukrainians, both civilian and military, if European troops are deployed visibly in their country. Battlefield success isn't just a matter of numbers and equipment, as important as those are, of course.

alarcos.bsky.social•107 days ago

Also, several West European countries have suspended but no abolished conscription. It may be time to start a discussion of unsuspending it, also as a clearly visible signal of preparation for the near future.

mediumyan.bsky.social•107 days ago

There is no legal impediment to the deployment of a European non-NATO force in Ukraine? I mean I don’t know. There certainly seems to be a paralysis of will, although I feel that there may finally be a grudging recognition that this is a) a good thing to do and b) necessary.

brendythefrenzy.bsky.social•107 days ago

Big question is how we would react if/when Putin tests our resolve by "accidentally" shooting down a jet, or bombing our troops etc

andreas555.bsky.social•106 days ago

With fury?

brendythefrenzy.bsky.social•106 days ago

And action? Or just impotent fury?

andreas555.bsky.social•106 days ago

I think action.

poppingbubbles.bsky.social•107 days ago

I don't think you need a military brain for this (I don't have one.) If Ukraine is able to fight the Russians to a standstill on their own, with financial support from Europe to maintain troop levels, your Euro brigades are just there as a trip wire right?

poppingbubbles.bsky.social•107 days ago

As long as more force can be deployed later (within weeks not months) isn't that enough? Also air and naval units would be engaged straight away.

davehaterofracism.bsky.social•107 days ago

European air bases in Ukraine would be a massive deterrent to Russia - we could put some of the best most modern planes in the world at them . Ukraine is currently fighting with 90s technology planes and matching Russia.

purble.bsky.social•107 days ago

No reason to set up air bases in Ukraine, which would presumably take considerable time and money. If air support needed, little reason not to fly from existing bases in Poland, Germany or wherever else around Europe.

lefloon.bsky.social•107 days ago

If Europe had balls, hundreds of Rafales and Eurofighters could be landing in Ukraine by nightfall TODAY.

poppingbubbles.bsky.social•107 days ago

Yes also true if you could defend them. Potentially even based outside Ukrainie so they couldn't be attacked without triggering A5 but able to fly sorties over UKR on day one.

zamfir.bsky.social•107 days ago

The larger force is the sticking, I suspect. If it's not very clear how that looks and how strong it is, then there is a temptation for Russia to call the bluff - do some small, fairly harmless attacks, and hope that the reaction force does not dare to escalate.

poppingbubbles.bsky.social•107 days ago

Willing to be corrected here by those who understand better.

mkorhonen12345.bsky.social•107 days ago

Would There be need for land forces? Ukraine is doing pretry well without meaningful Air force , so with Decent air force…?

poppingbubbles.bsky.social•107 days ago

From other replies here the problem is the UKR demob at the end of the war.

erikelmgren.bsky.social•107 days ago

Initially they may well have to be much more. When there is a "peace" large parts of the Ukrainian army will demand to be demobilised. That will be a very dangerous process for a few years.

poppingbubbles.bsky.social•107 days ago

That's a really good point Erik. Do you have any conception of timescales?

erikelmgren.bsky.social•107 days ago

New units. If we assume they can largely fill the officer and NCO corps with veterans my guess is at least 2 years for that.

Retaining and re-recruiting temp units from current army, possible, offer high salaries.

Rotation for current army instead of demobilisation? 1/3 of current force max?

...

myskhin.bsky.social•107 days ago

What about using planes. It seems the Russian forces and bases in Crimea would be vulnerable to a heretofore minimal air attack.

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