I used paper by @alisonfeder.bsky.social @pleunipennings.bsky.social & @petrovadmitri.bsky.social in class yesterday. It makes v. useful point about softsweeps in viral time series. But its also v useful for motivating calculations on the probability of loss
https://journals.plos.org/plosgenetics/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgen.1009050#pgen.1009050
Comments
time on drug after
1 day 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks. 4 weeks
the number of mutations (1 per day) and prob of establishment of >0 mutations
10% 52% 77% 89% 95%
at the board in under grad popgen class.
Your students may also be interested in a related case where women were treated with single dose nevirapine, which led to K103N being detectable in 87% of women at 6 weeks.
https://abetterscientist.wordpress.com/2024/10/22/essay-on-hiv-drug-resistance-in-pregnant-women/