They say expectation is most people will be released 33-50% of the way through their sentence, but they could serve their whole sentence in custody. Given current state of prisons & how difficult it is to get onto rehabilitative courses, might be v difficult for offenders to prove good behaviour. - ThreadSky

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cassiarowland.bsky.social • 12 days ago

They say expectation is most people will be released 33-50% of the way through their sentence, but they could serve their whole sentence in custody. Given current state of prisons & how difficult it is to get onto rehabilitative courses, might be v difficult for offenders to prove good behaviour.

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radiobeartime.com•12 days ago

As ever it’s the additional resources and time required to get the prison system and social services to the place where transformation and efficiencies can be delivered which is the core issue.

And already it looks like neither time nor resources may be enough.

cassiarowland.bsky.social•12 days ago

Absolutely. Gauke does explicitly say in his report that requirements for early release should be lower when it's first introduced, to account for the difficulties of getting onto rehabilitative courses etc in the current situation. But not yet clear how any of this will be implemented in practice.

radiobeartime.com•12 days ago

Always the issue with criminal justice system reform. Benefits accrue downstream (and mainly to someone else’s budget) but costs occur now (to your budget)

cassiarowland.bsky.social•12 days ago

This raises the possibility capacity challenge could get *worse* rather than better! People currently released after 40% of their sentences could be spending 50-100% in custody instead. This is the highest impact change proposed in the review, so gov very reliant on it to free up necessary spaces.

cassiarowland.bsky.social•12 days ago

It's also worth highlighting a downside of earned early release approach. While there are a lot of benefits, it introduces new opportunities for bias in the system. Racial bias is one risk, but also people who are more literate or just good at navigating the complex prison system etc will do better.

criminologist.bsky.social•12 days ago

*power of defaults wonders wtf is going on*

so...there's a layer of bureaucracy implied in removing automatic release too that will clog up exits. never mind risk aversion / bias as you say.

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