holding popular positions is good, but it’s often better to hold mildly unpopular positions in a way that convinces voters you are principled than to hold popular positions in a way that convinces them you are reading directly off a polling sheet
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It was frequently said in the 2004 campaign about Bush that “you might not agree with him, but you know where he stands”, which was supposed to be in contrast to finger in the wind Kerry. It was a message that worked.
One of the issues with holding all of the most popular political positions “genuinely” is that nobody does that. Unless we find the one politician who has *exactly* the median beliefs of most voters in *exactly* the moment the election happens, it’s going to have to be fake and weak!
A) in the middle of the leftmost and rightmost stances
B) holding a combo of leftmost and rightmost stances
I think B is a lot more common in reality than A especially amongst the general public, but wonks talk as if A is the only form of moderate that exists
I'd add a D), for technocrats who weigh all policy proposals against the chance they'll actually work. Whatever their ideological leanings, they filter out a lot of the more extreme proposals that way. The center-right version must be aware by now that trickle-down doesn't work, for example.
There's also C) seems like a reasonable person, someone who you could have a conversation with, someone who isn't going to go into a spittle-flecked rage at you
Which definitely gets conflated with both of the above!
This is why Trump supporters respected Bernie and only Bernie in the DNC field. He was the only one that seemed to have real opinions, not poll tested & focus group calibrated thoughts.
Absolutely this. The misogyny was terrible and utterly unfair. Warren was the best chance we had to get back to truly competent governance & smart foreign policy. Instead we had Uncle Joe & The IDF.
I mean, Sanders was also the beneficiary of enormously skewed media coverage. Especially as conservative media knew they could exploit him to drive a wedge between Dems. It's counterfactual to believe this was born out of good-faith 'respect' lol.
They're using him for ratfucking right now. See #3.
one of Trump’s political superpowers is that he has shown voters that he doesn’t care about the traditional gatekeepers of American politics
“I am willing to ignore all the people who are saying this is illegal and bad” works on people even when the things he is doing are in fact illegal and bad
Some hold the view that 2024 was a loss despite a weak candidate. I’m starting to think T is a historically strong candidate, in his ability to raise turnout, be immune to criticism, and never be attributed unpopular positions.
Trump got fewer votes in 2016 than Obama got in 2012. Trump also got fewer votes in 2024 than Biden got in 2020.
I think Trump only wins by default when the Dems split their own vote by attempting to appeal to moderate conservatives who have not been proven to exist.
The average American pays attention to politics about 15 minutes a week. For all the talk about weak parties, partisanship is pretty static. Divining the decisions of the 5-10% (max) who go back & forth is impossible in the election year and simply priors-affirming post election.
His cult are folks who generally don’t vote other than for him. Those are the folks who have pulled him over the finish line twice and made it far closer than it should’ve been another time.
Trump is a media creation. His candidacy was given relevance by the media, his shortcomings minimized or even celebrated by the media, and the disastrous policy consequences of his administrations obscured by the media. No other candidate in history had been so propped up and lionized by the media.
It is amazing how Trump seems to get an exception for literally every rule for some reason.
He could insult your wife, talk about tearing up the first amendment, and wipe his ass with the flag, and conservatives wouldn't even pretend to be concerned.
Interesting take. Since Trump was defeated in 2020, he’s not totally immune from defeat, but his win in 2024 shows that we shouldn’t take a D win for granted.
I agree. He IS a historically strong candidate. The real “Teflon Don.” MAGA candidates constantly flame out (Lake comes to mind) even when Trump himself is on the ballot, but his MAGA base loves him and refuses to think he has ever done anything wrong.
Trump has nontraditional strengths. His personal brand (could be summed up as "Get Trump, Get Money") is really appealing to a big slice of the electorate, and it's hard to break that brand because *personal branding has been his only real job for the last fifty years.*
From a foreign observation viewpoint, his strength is how his party just buys into his shit, self flagellating any time they are asked.
It's insane, watching on. It's so obvious he is full of shit/corrupt as all hell/absolutely fucking wrong about everything. No one calls for his resignation. Wild.
He's not strong against an actual opposition party. He's strong against a center-left party obsessed with conciliation and compromise no matter what he does. The Dem base now hates him but until recently this attitude wasn't just held by their politicians, but the voters too
Oh yeah that's obvious, but in other places in the world people do things for the common good sometimes, not over yonder it seems. Literally no one prepared to risk a single thing.
Wild.
Several Republicans stood up to Trump and it ended their careers. I don't think it's about national character. Tories could dump Truss, Johnson and May easily. Much harder for Republicans to do that here
in 2024, every incumbent on earth lost. kamala came relatively close to upset that dynamic, no? trump has a fundamental appeal but his main quality in 2024 was that he was not the incumbent
Evangelicals literally think he was personally chosen by God, and the assassination attempt, staged or not, solidified that for them. Even though he repudiated a national abortion ban, there was still "you have to vote for Trump to save the babies".
If they really believed the Bible, the “assassination attempt” and miraculous recovery pointed more to him being the Antichrist than God’s chosen. Their actions are a perfect example of biblical idolatry, worshiping a golden calf while ignoring the actual teachings of the god they profess to follow.
Eh, Biden tried this on the Afghanistan withdrawal, and the WH media excoriated him for it. This is a benefit that exists solely for Trump, because the WH media liked him and wants him to win.
All of that is downstream from the fact that Trump is like an OJ Simpson for whites. Eveyone knew he was a scumbag who didn’t actually give shit about the community that was supporting him. But letting yourself believe him was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to really stick it to people you hate.
Trump genuinely seems to have a power to make him immune to most political backlash, yes the media helps somewhat, but even that doesn't explain it fully.
Thankfully it seems no other politican is able to replicate it, the closest seems to be farrage in the UK but even then
Not to mention that if you actually took the Matty strategy seriously, you would have to change your position on issues every single year as new polls come out and swing in different directions, which is just transparently clownish.
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A) in the middle of the leftmost and rightmost stances
B) holding a combo of leftmost and rightmost stances
I think B is a lot more common in reality than A especially amongst the general public, but wonks talk as if A is the only form of moderate that exists
Which definitely gets conflated with both of the above!
I held my nose and voted for "shoulda divorced him" Clinton.
Volunteered for Warren.
Voted for Harris.
...now I just want my red lightsaber, CSPAN, and a pot of tea.
They're using him for ratfucking right now. See #3.
“I am willing to ignore all the people who are saying this is illegal and bad” works on people even when the things he is doing are in fact illegal and bad
The ascendancy of the right-wing media system aligned with Trump’s rise. The No. 1 factor
I think Trump only wins by default when the Dems split their own vote by attempting to appeal to moderate conservatives who have not been proven to exist.
In retrospect him winning in 2020 was prob best outcome. No Jan 6 and he’d/Rs own Covid/inflation top to bottom.
He could insult your wife, talk about tearing up the first amendment, and wipe his ass with the flag, and conservatives wouldn't even pretend to be concerned.
https://bsky.app/profile/jamellebouie.net/post/3lpmbevbvoc27
It's insane, watching on. It's so obvious he is full of shit/corrupt as all hell/absolutely fucking wrong about everything. No one calls for his resignation. Wild.
He's not strong against an actual opposition party. He's strong against a center-left party obsessed with conciliation and compromise no matter what he does. The Dem base now hates him but until recently this attitude wasn't just held by their politicians, but the voters too
Wild.
Thankfully it seems no other politican is able to replicate it, the closest seems to be farrage in the UK but even then