🧵1/N New study published in @jama.com on re-emergence of vaccine-eliminated infectious diseases under declining vaccination in the US. We model long-term risk and conditions for return to endemicity for measles, rubella, polio, & diphtheria. Collab w/ @Mathewkiang.com https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2833361
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Yes,I know about herd immunity, but if we can't have that at least we can be happy that the conservatives are working so hard to limit their own numbers.
📈A 10% drop in MMR coverage? >11 million measles cases over 25 years, becoming endemic around 10 years
📈A 50% drop in vaccine coverage (over 25 years):
• 51M measles cases (51,200 with postmeasles neurologic disease)
• 10M rubella cases (10,700 with congenital rubella)
• 4.3M polio cases (5,400 with paralytic polio)
• >10M hospitalizations
• 159K deaths
While with measles, we’re right on the cusp, increasing vaccination levels by just 5% brings measles immunity safely away from returning to endemic levels. It’s empowering that a small segment of the population can make a difference here.