We currently have a rather strong +EAMT event unfolding which is I suspect, directly related to the surge in heat-flux up into the stratosphere during the forecast period & the rapid weakening of the sPV.
A major SSW currently seems less likely, but significant stratospheric disruption..
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A major SSW currently seems less likely, but significant stratospheric disruption..
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..seems plausible, especially helped by the wave-breaking event which develops a block across Scandinavia/Siberia. It's no coincidence that heat-flux is generated downstream of the Himalayas.
Impacts to the surface? Unknown currently, but interesting to watch this unfold.
The +EAMT event will also dump extra momentum into the Pacific jet triggering an extension, this will generate a Rossby wave packet that leads to the Siberian blocking & potentially some chilly/frosty weather into the UK.
No current sign of significant cold/widespread snow, however.
Can’t give you any hope of warmth at the moment!