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guymc.com
•
72 days ago
Yeah I think that's pretty much I what I had. Thanks for confirming - back to the drawing board for me I suppose!
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guymc.com
•
72 days ago
To clarify: I'm optimizing to find λH and λA such that:
1) 1-Poisson.cdf(total, λH+λA) = over probability
2) Skellam.cdf(handicap, λA, λH) = probability of home covering
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nilsmackay.bsky.social
•
72 days ago
Yeah that looks about right. With AH you have to take into account both the probability and the spread of the given AH odds, if you're not doing that already.
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guymc.com
•
72 days ago
Yeah that's in there. I reckon the issue is probably how I'm handling quarter and whole goal spreads and totals. Thanks very much for your help!
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nilsmackay.bsky.social
•
72 days ago
Yeah that's a pain for sure haha. Good luck!
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1) 1-Poisson.cdf(total, λH+λA) = over probability
2) Skellam.cdf(handicap, λA, λH) = probability of home covering