2/ Israel has planned this attack on Iran for a long time. Israel is also likely to have developed what military planners call ‘branch plans’ for if the US intervenes militarily or if the American military doesn’t participate in offensive operations against Iran. - ThreadSky

warinthefuture.bsky.social • 4 days ago

2/ Israel has planned this attack on Iran for a long time. Israel is also likely to have developed what military planners call ‘branch plans’ for if the US intervenes militarily or if the American military doesn’t participate in offensive operations against Iran.

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21stcenturycol.bsky.social•3 days ago

Or Sequels

warinthefuture.bsky.social•4 days ago

3/ There are an array of advantages and disadvantages for the U.S. administration to consider as it works through its calculus for supporting or not supporting offensive operations against Israel.

warinthefuture.bsky.social•4 days ago

4/ Given Trump’s propensity to avoid foreign conflicts (in general), any American commitment to offensive operations in Iran is very likely to be limited in scope and time and designed to bring Iran to the negotiating table under conditions very favourable to Israel and America.

warinthefuture.bsky.social•4 days ago

5/ Surprise is an enduring element of war. The next two weeks could see many surprises. These might include an American decision and strike much earlier than two weeks, a rapid diplomatic decision or Iran striking out at the oil infrastructure of neighbours.

stdjantar.bsky.social•4 days ago

The biggest surprise would be to make the Middle East a nuclear free zone.

warinthefuture.bsky.social•4 days ago

6/ I conclude with the following questions: At what point can the Israelis say they have achieved their strategic objectives for this war? And what will the security situation in the Middle East look like then?
You can read the full article at this link:
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/surprises-ahead-in-the-israel-iran

feelingantsy.bsky.social•4 days ago

I find it very hard to view the Israel / Iran war without wondering how it will affect the Russia / Ukraine war

westvillagecrank.bsky.social•3 days ago

I also think Putin will not tolerate an American administration's participation in a war against Iran. (Among other things, Russia has been using Iranian drones in Ukraine.) So Pettyman Smallcock is caught between Netanyahu and Putin... And I bet he picks Putin.

richdickins.bsky.social•4 days ago

I can't say I see an Israeli strategy for Iran beyond neutering their forces. Yet another 'tomorrow's problem ' approach

tombusiahn.bsky.social•4 days ago

Don’t take Trump’s “two weeks” dodge seriously. It means nothing.

fry69.dev•4 days ago

What is the rationale for Iran striking out at the oil infrastructure of its neighbors?

northernrouleur.bsky.social•4 days ago

Typo: I think you mean Iran here

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