Important new article in @nature.com: "...the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend." #TruthIsBadEnough (h/t @flowinguphill.bsky.social) - ThreadSky

michaelemann.bsky.social • 30 days ago

Important new article in @nature.com:
"...the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend."
#TruthIsBadEnough
(h/t @flowinguphill.bsky.social)

Reposted from Jens Terhaar

Why have the sea surface temperature suddenly risen in 2023/24? 🌊
Is it true that climate models cannot simulate such SST jumps? What is common to such jumps? How will SSTs evolve over the next months and years? Are we in uncharted territory? More from our recent study in Nature is here👇

Comments

cassouman40.bsky.social•29 days ago

Dear Mike,
Here is another study where we focus on the temperature jump in the North Atlantic in 2023 and where we emphasize the crucial role of internal variability for that event, with human-caused long-term stratification of the ocean acting as strong feedback.
Cheers.
https://bsky.app/profile/tguinaldo.bsky.social/post/3lmwodyonjk2l

michaelemann.bsky.social•29 days ago

thanks for the heads up Christophe--really nice work!

rgatess.bsky.social•29 days ago

Global warming increases the probability of such anomalies, just as it increases the probability of more extreme weather events. There’s more energy throughout the climate system and extreme black swan events increase in frequency.

thimbles.bsky.social•30 days ago

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but how are we going to confirm the revert to norm, given the state NOAA is going to be left in after the frat party crew are finished with it?
Are there other organizations that are doing this work on a comparable scale?

thimbles.bsky.social•30 days ago

I know the Australians have aims:
https://www.aims.gov.au/research-topics/monitoring-and-discovery/sea-temperatures
Copernicus?
https://marine.copernicus.eu/ocean-climate-portal/sea-surface-temperature

thimbles.bsky.social•30 days ago

Jochem Marotzke has expressed worry about the ARGO program:
https://www.mpg.de/24355236/interview-marotzke-trump-administration-climate-research
It's "more than 50 per cent funded by the U.S. – through NOAA. The programme consists of 4,200 buoys drifting across the oceans... If NOAA is gutted, Argo is in serious danger, as the buoys need to be replaced"

thimbles.bsky.social•30 days ago

Wow. The end of that Jochem article took my breath away.
Because, as a side note in passing, it mentioned Dr. Katherine Calvin:
https://bsky.app/profile/jksteinberger.bsky.social/post/3lkgfvg4ns22e

michaelemann.bsky.social•29 days ago

The U.S. covers under 2% of Earth’s surface. In other words, even if we had no measurements over the US, we would still have a very accurate estimate of global main surface temperature. In reality, we still have European reanalysis data, and satellite measurements over U.S. as a backup.

thimbles.bsky.social•29 days ago

You cad. 😉
You know I'm talking about the funding to maintain scientific research and the control of equipment, like the satellites by NASA and the buoys by NOAA, to which we cannot guarantee access won't be disrupted...

thimbles.bsky.social•29 days ago

... or that the potential head of the Department of Data Reinterpretation - Steve McIntyre (shoot, I shouldn't give them any ideas), won't adulterate figures with a sharpie.
When the ice caps melt and the Western Interor Seaway returns - 😉 - that 2% gap might make a difference.

But right now..

thimbles.bsky.social•29 days ago

I'm more concerned with how this administration felt comfortable publishing an unsupported lab leak covid history.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/lab-leak-true-origins-of-covid-19/
So I have a little anxiety about relying on US sources until after this administration.
But do international replacements exist? *shrug enoji*

michaelemann.bsky.social•29 days ago

Indeed. You’ll appreciate my forthcoming book with Peter Hotez, “Science Under Siege”

michaelemann.bsky.social•29 days ago

Yes, it will be a $hit$how

michaelemann.bsky.social•29 days ago

The rest of the world has the infrastructure to continue monitoring (satellites, buoys etc). But there is no question that a loss of American leadership and defunding of our platforms is a hindrance. Of more concern to me is what it signals about us to the world.

thimbles.bsky.social•29 days ago

"what it signals about us to the world"

It appears the world has picked up on the signal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/04/france-eu-us-based-scientists-come-to-europe-emmanuel-macron-ursula-von-der-leyen

thimbles.bsky.social•29 days ago

"France is thought to be particularly keen to attract scientists working on health – particularly infectious diseases – as well as climate research and artificial intelligence."

michaelemann.bsky.social•29 days ago

They did this during the first Trump term too

overshot.bsky.social•29 days ago

"jump in global sea surface temperatures that breaks the previous record by at least 0.25 °C is a 1-in-512-year event under the current long-term warming trend"
https://bsky.app/profile/privateeyenews.bsky.social/post/3liw2bvqr3c24
... So hopefully a few hundred years without another such anomalous jump.

bigskyrad.bsky.social•29 days ago

All this careful measurement stuff is just godless liberal ideology. Those damned libs actually believe all that “mathematics” stuff. Charts like that are socialist plots to take away MAGA freedumbs.

michaelemann.bsky.social•29 days ago

We published related work looking at how human-caused warming increases the likelihood of surface temperature extremes and "streaks" some years ago:
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep19831
(see also this followup study: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL074056)