This is just ridiculous. It ignores the 100% Starship failure rate to date and instead assumes it's like Falcon with only a 25% chance of failure??? Is Starship much harder than Falcon or not? You can't have it both ways...
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Starship system is in testing phase where some failures are expected.
Starship v2 success rate is 0%
Starship v1 success rate is 60% (IFT1 failed bc of SH)
Super Heavy launch success rate is 89%
Falcon family success rate is 99,4% (503/506)
vs Partially reusable SShuttle 98,5%
Might need a lot of more time.
IMO: better do expendable 200t lifter NOW rather than continue delivering nothing usefull for years.
Just see what NASA wrote a year ago: reached the intended orbit
Getting to orbit was not hard for v1 starship, in practice it did it already several times.
If they have those hulls, scramp them. Do not launch them for bad PR.
Some retweets and a follow and you've got a shot at making $
If they hit the target, they'll say it was the "learn rate" and (lol) "Elon urgency variable" at work. If they don't, well they told you they likely wouldn't based on sober science.
I guess the prediction is about making a 2026 *attempt* not a successful arrival at Mars, but I'd add that the reusable upper stage also has to operate in deep space for 9 months, and restart engines after 9 mo.
But "operate in deep space for 9 months" tests things we haven't seen tried at all. I imagine there are big solar panel + big dish antenna attachments planned?
They should adopt a planB now when it is 100% clear that it takes years before reusable second stage is reusable.
If their math is correct and expendable variant could lift 200t, that would be pretty good for a piece that costs <$200m to manufacture.
Piere on X on the matter
https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2025//03-march/0325-space-economy.htm
https://x.com/lionnetpierre/status/1933077012643778734?s=46&t=X8IGO_Rw5FipdKTeYoGT2A
- demonstrate Starship reliability is enough to safely enter orbit (2+ completely successful suborbital flights)
- in space prop transfer (never been done on this scale, or with cryo)
- high enough flight rate to refill Starship prior to Mars window
- deep space, multi month ops out to 1.5AU with a cryo stage
It's a heck of a to-do list.
And I haven't even mentioned that they'll want to nail recovery/reuse to fly those 6 Starships in quick succession without spending $$$$
Then I read these posts and I'm reassured.