...it's a huge embarrassment and a serious setback, electorally, too. The FN/RN is a Le Pen fiefdom. If it's decapitated, it'll unleash serious tensions.
3) Party is being fined 1 million EUR. This is also a big deal. Potentially guts the party's finances. Serious knock-on effects... 2/
3) Party is being fined 1 million EUR. This is also a big deal. Potentially guts the party's finances. Serious knock-on effects... 2/
Comments
Also even if it is a blow it's not clear how strong the relationship between expenditures and vote share is.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/2022-legislative-elections/article/2022/06/20/marine-le-pen-s-rassemblement-national-wins-historic-victory-with-89-mps_5987419_129.html
Boss thinks this is useful. Yes, decapitated. But important to realise that FN isn't like ISIS and ISIS collapsed after it's leadership was killed.
Far-right authoritarians/totalitarians create a system that's highly sensitive to the loss of a ruler.
1. Most don't know
2. The boss thinks it's not fatal to FN, but would have been 5 years ago. Thinks it might lead to splitting support if other parties vie for votes
3. 2 take a similar view to you
No, RN definitely not like ISIS (!), but leadership crisis could really take hold. Or not. Depending on how MLP plays it.
6) It damages the party's attempts at "credibilisation", just as RN seeks parliamentary respectability. Corruption at the top suggests... 4/
7) The RN have not been talking seriously - even amongst themselves - about this eventuality. What happens now? Is Bardella ready? Can they harness her guilt for victimhood? Big unknowns. 5/
Expect that MLP and her party deliberately bluffed (and lost):
Always playing the victim when adressed and obviously convinced that she'd never be convicted, out of fear for the "mob". The French approve the verdict apparently by 70%.
I don't see infighting happening as long as she's there, & she might be more useful staying in the shadows supporting Bardella. Let's not forget that France is patriarchal, and her sex hindered her even within her electoral camp.