is this something you've ever covered in a newsletter that i just missed, but what actually happens in a death spiral for this sort of product? they're investing SO MUCH into infrastructure so what does an LLM collapse even look like?
I should also add that this much stock being sold by insiders is a sign they don't believe it'll grow much further or that the company will IPO (i personally think the chances of OpenAI IPOing are very very low)
I think you need to know the total value of stock owned by insiders to make that claim. Is this 10%, 50%, 80%? As someone whose owns illiquid stock in a startup I believe in, I’d definitely sell some now if I had the opportunity and hold some for the future. It’s not a perfectly rational market.
Possibly dumb question: is it a kiss of death because it allows employees to cash out? I.e. they (employees) have little belief that the company's value will keep growing?
it's the kiss of death because you have a bunch of people who have now cashed out, which makes them less likely to want to stay, especially at a company that has hit a wall as far as making new stuff. Also, Softbank is the last call for a company, you only go there if you are desperate
Is there long form reporting on how Masayoshi Son has been able to get away with consistently making terrible bets, after he got lucky with Uber and Airbnb? Surely he must have lost that money by now
It's one thing to dump 1.5 billion into a shit company but seeks different to do it in a way that bails out a ton of employees who clearly don't want the shares. Any particular reason he'd do this? Or just plain stupidity
Comments
Softbank: Even we have no idea why we're do this anymore.
At Softbank, we don't make a lot of the products you buy.
It's not bad investment, it's Lossmaxing
That’s a lot of money being pulled out.