In relation to turnout and polling.
The register is unreliable of course: lots of duplication (multiple registrations, people who are deceased or abroad) on the register so this isn't necessarily a good baseline for measuring turnout.
The register is unreliable of course: lots of duplication (multiple registrations, people who are deceased or abroad) on the register so this isn't necessarily a good baseline for measuring turnout.
Comments
Newly eligible (IE/UK) 18+ in the 4.8 years (A notably large Celtic Tiger cohort)
+
New adult citizens
+
Net migration of Irish/British adults
-
IE/UK adult deaths here
Comparing these numbers we're still looking at about a decrease in turnout of around 3-4% since the last election.
This wouldn't be enough to distort an exit poll unless there was also a big change in the distribution of voters shifting from young to old.