kevcunningham.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Given that it is topical, from April's Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent 'Should Ireland withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest in protest against the inclusion of Israel in the contest?' Yes 55 No 37 Don't know 8

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

Nearly 800 wards/divisions in now. Reform are still doing better in areas with fewer university graduates, higher levels of employment in manufacturing and primary industries, and where UKIP did well in 2017. The evidence for a big age gradient in the Reform vote looks weak now. @news.sky.com

submitted 32 days ago • 2 comments

The key chart right now: Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers. This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.

submitted 42 days ago • 114 comments

Yup.

submitted 47 days ago • 0 comments

What a sad sight

submitted 60 days ago • 0 comments

Turns out a lot of people who claimed to care about freedom of speech actually don’t.

submitted 69 days ago • 7 comments

One of the many problems with having plain clothes secret police kidnapping people off the street in broad daylight is that nobody can tell the difference from criminals doing exactly the same thing. It makes everyone in society less safe.

submitted 69 days ago • 33 comments

This is fascism. If you've ever wondered what you would do, now is the moment when you find out. If there is a protest, go to it. If not, organize one. Call Congress. If you have a microphone, now is the time to use it. The historical record is crystal clear. This will not stop here.

submitted 85 days ago • 18 comments

Hi there @repjournal.bsky.social I've been wading through some of the earliest issues of your Journal and thought you might like this pic of your very first issue from 1908

submitted 88 days ago • 0 comments

My latest analysis in the Sunday Independent on where the median Irish voter stands on defence and housing issues. Covering the Triple Lock, NATO, Defence spending, Neutrality, EU Army, Log cabins & one-off-housing planning, tax cuts, derelict buildings... www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...

submitted 92 days ago • 1 comment

Hard to say it but, notwithstanding one's position Zelenskyy really f**ked up today and in a way in which I'm not sure we'll recover.

submitted 95 days ago • 10 comments

I may be wrong here (and I have been!) but I will guess that this will be among the more popular initiatives. 'NIMBYism' by contrast is very much a minority sport rather than a reflection of popular opinion even in a given locality. A miniscule number of people are blocking developments these.

submitted 104 days ago • 1 comment

Exploring the decline of immigration as an issue in Irish politics: analysis.irelandthinks.ie/drop-in-asyl...

submitted 126 days ago • 0 comments

In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election: The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️

submitted 145 days ago • 18 comments

Opining again as the gov get winner's bump. m.independent.ie/irish-news/f...

submitted 142 days ago • 0 comments

It's officially 'very cold'

submitted 146 days ago • 0 comments

Interesting job: Applications to be the next Political Editor of the Irish Independent and Sunday Independent... mediahuis.staging.krakatoa.eu-2.volcanic.cloud/job/politica...

submitted 146 days ago • 0 comments

For your post-Xmas #rstats reading: idealstan now has an updated vignette showing ideal point marginal effects: a new way of understanding how covariates ➡️ latent variables with noisy indicators. + an easter egg about old vs. young Democrats in the Senate 😁 saudiwin.github.io/idealstan/vi...

submitted 161 days ago • 0 comments

Everything You Didn’t Really Want To Know, And Therefore Didn’t Really Care To Ask, About The Seanad Elections! (🧵)

submitted 177 days ago • 2 comments

In relation to turnout and polling. The register is unreliable of course: lots of duplication (multiple registrations, people who are deceased or abroad) on the register so this isn't necessarily a good baseline for measuring turnout.

submitted 181 days ago • 1 comment

Fine Gaelers really feel the Paschal Donohoe push over the last few days was effective - this might back that up.

submitted 181 days ago • 3 comments

Great analysis by @kevcunningham.bsky.social I’d no realised there was also a Sindo/Ireland Thinks exit poll www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... Kevin Cunningham: FF-FG coalition is now so tightly knit it can only be broken up at huge risk to both parties

submitted 184 days ago • 3 comments

The 2024 election produced a much less proportional outcome due to the relative inefficiency of the Independent/Other vote.

submitted 181 days ago • 2 comments

Only really getting to look at the data from our polling day poll now. Really interesting to see how the most important issue shifted towards the economy both during the campaign and then in particular in the final week.

submitted 181 days ago • 3 comments

The polls have almost nailed it. On average, @irishpollingind.bsky.social was only 0.54 points away from election result (max: 0.85). Spot on for FF and FG. Irish pollsters are better than their reputation, and online polls are not worse than face-to-face surveys. pollingindicator.com#validation

submitted 183 days ago • 3 comments

Expecting these odds for ff/fg/Independents to start moving in quite quickly? #ge24

submitted 185 days ago • 1 comment

Fitzgerald to elect Paschal Donohoe, with some transfers closing to gap. Donohoe's surplus might just about put Marie Sherlock over Gerry Hutch..?

submitted 184 days ago • 0 comments

There it is. Gannon's surplus and Fitzpatrick's elimination.

submitted 184 days ago • 2 comments

My article in @TheSundayIndo attempting an explanation of yesterday's vote together with some fresh data. m.independent.ie/irish-news/e...

submitted 184 days ago • 1 comment

RTÉ Election Marathon Fantastic teamwork with @kevcunningham.bsky.social throughout the day! 🙌 #GE24

submitted 185 days ago • 1 comment

Great work with Stefan working on our votes to seats model taking into account the individual's vote share/quota, their ranking relative to seats, number and vote share of running mates. Transfer friendliness of FF FG may change this further. We'll have to see!

submitted 185 days ago • 1 comment