Not sure about that, if you look at how much the CCP needs to sustain a massive export surge to prevent anaemic domestic consumption from triggering a severe Chinese overcapacity crisis then the Trump vs Xi duel looks more like mutually assured destruction - ThreadSky

aphclarkson.bsky.social • 44 days ago

Not sure about that, if you look at how much the CCP needs to sustain a massive export surge to prevent anaemic domestic consumption from triggering a severe Chinese overcapacity crisis then the Trump vs Xi duel looks more like mutually assured destruction

Reposted from John Springford

Trade wars with autocracies are hard to win

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aphclarkson.bsky.social•44 days ago

A best case scenario btw is the EU initially puts up restrictions against Chinese goods flooding the market, as do Japan, India and other stronger economies. If a chastened Beijing is sensible everyone then negotiates a new post-American trade system as the US continues to burn itself to the ground.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•44 days ago

A worst case scenario is Xi refuses to move enough to calm China's other post-American major trade partners in EU, India, Japan and so on and fails to restructure China's economy. That would lead to severe disruption across entire Chinese sectors dependent on exports to survive

qua12.bsky.social•44 days ago

Only with Ally support Can the US try to get China to focus on Chinese internal consumption. I would like to see Xi go but Chinese economic difficulties could lead to a revival of Hard core Maoism in China👍

richarddwyer.bsky.social•44 days ago

"Hey, I promised that I would reduce exports as a share of China GDP. You just all *assumed* that meant increasing domestic spending."

erikelmgren.bsky.social•44 days ago

Worst case scenario is trade war causing panic in Beijing that they try to solve by trying to grab Taiwan quickly and that escalating into global thermonuclear war.

catiomiles.bsky.social•44 days ago

China has a big cushion.

They also have a huge market with 1.4 billion people.

They can survive and I agree an authoritarian government can impose more pain to their citizens than a democracy.

davesrants.com•44 days ago

I'd be making the bet that the US isn't enough of an autocracy (yet) to prevent protest/sane Republicans etc stepping in so they blink first. China can presumably keep dissent supressed on its side longer.

qua12.bsky.social•44 days ago

I favor tariffs only on China not US neighbors and allies, Trump is turning the US into a rogue nation👍

pibasedlifeform.bsky.social•44 days ago

And it looks like autocracy v autocracy as well

dollybastard.bsky.social•44 days ago

From the quoted post alone, I thought he was referring to the US 🙈

mecha-sheep.bsky.social•44 days ago

The CCP can build more guns to keep its economy rolling.
It has a way more advanced dictatorship than Trump (for now) and absolutely zero "check and balance", while the USA is still a federal state.

stephaniemac.bsky.social•44 days ago

jofromeurope.bsky.social•44 days ago

Chinese have more experience living with the hardship.
Spoiled Americans not.
They will revolt if they are out of coffee 🤪

handle.invalid•44 days ago

How will the EU manage with this trade war ?

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