I agree the risks are immense from an Israeli or US perspective, but I also think we shouldn't underplay the massive level of damage and destabilisation being meted out against the Iranian state here. Iran's regime as much as Hezbollah is not invincible. - ThreadSky

aphclarkson.bsky.social • 11 days ago

I agree the risks are immense from an Israeli or US perspective, but I also think we shouldn't underplay the massive level of damage and destabilisation being meted out against the Iranian state here.

Iran's regime as much as Hezbollah is not invincible.

Reposted from François Heisbourg

I fear that this operation will incentivise rather than deter Iranian efforts to cross the nuclear threshold working from its deeper enrichment and weaponisation sites (eg Fordoz). Hoping I'm wromg.

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jaybut707.bsky.social•11 days ago

The Israeli régime isn’t invincible either.
Its leader is wanted for trial. Democracies are applying sanctions against its hard right leaders.
Mr Rubio is reported to have said starting the latest war was a unilateral act by Israel.
(PS I don’t support either side.)

jennysampson.bsky.social•11 days ago

Rubio is lying fyi

brettbaldridge.bsky.social•11 days ago

Iran has a right to defend itself, by any means necessary.

nokilli.bsky.social•11 days ago

Only demonstrates that Iran has a legitimate need for a nuclear weapon.

More than any other nation on the planet, in fact.

aboutosleep.bsky.social•11 days ago

America can take over but it can't conquer the people. 🤷‍♂️ Fighting them is another Vietnam or Iraqi War it's not gonna work.

dburx.bsky.social•11 days ago

One thing is certain, that KSA will conclude they must have nuclear bombs.

camgottaplan.bsky.social•11 days ago

Same conclusion a lot of folks are coming to (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Ukraine...)

foundationsofthedigitalstate.com•11 days ago

It is also the end of the old song where X has been variously Damascus, Cairo, South Lebanon, Tunis, Baghdad and finally Tehran.

Israel is attacking in order to prolong the war that when it ends will only lead to 2 questions:

foundationsofthedigitalstate.com•11 days ago

(1) what's the path to a Palestinian state?
(2) who executed these newly exhumed corpses?

aphclarkson.bsky.social•11 days ago

I agree that this damages Israel's future but I find a lot of takes assuming that "this helps Iran" as misguided as previous "this helps Hezbollah" or "this helps Hamas" takes. The Israelis can damage themselves while also dealing fatal blows to rival actors.

The only clear winner is the New Syria

radiobeartime.com•11 days ago

It’s good news for Baratarna and his Mitanni ambitions but the Hittites are likely to take this as a threat to their own Thousand Gods.

tarquinhh.bsky.social•11 days ago

"We now go live to our Ugarit correspondent Niqtamru the Scribe"

foundationsofthedigitalstate.com•11 days ago

also does this help or hinder the authoritarian regimes in the Middle East? what's the impact in Cairo? or Riyadh?

Regimes there might be anti-Iran but the population is not pro-Israel

aphclarkson.bsky.social•11 days ago

If current events in Gaza didn't trigger sustained street revolt in Cairo or Amman then this won't either

foundationsofthedigitalstate.com•11 days ago

that's true until it isn't tho

Everyone is assuming that Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon and now Iran means endless impunity...

how big is this caravan for Gaza moving through the Mahgreb?

laskajan.bsky.social•11 days ago

I think most of people doesn't truly grasp what Hamas attack meant for a lot of Israelis and it all (assumptions, reason, suprise etc.) goes from that...

roryr6.bsky.social•11 days ago

And the Saudis

jtatlife.bsky.social•11 days ago

I'm a bit surprised that the growing evidence that the current Israeli regime are becoming blood-crazed isn't doing more to create a balancing coalition. Slaughtering the Gazans, smashing Hezbullah, attacking the new Syrians and now going all-in against the Iranians. Where does it stop?

mcdaragh.bsky.social•11 days ago

True, but I also think that an Israeli bombing campaign is one of the few things that could mobilize support FOR the regime.

commiecohen.bsky.social•11 days ago

Since both Israel and the US are genocidal, criminal regimes, any "risk" coming their way is perfectly justified. Both these "countries" should be dismantled and the land returned to original owners.

thexq.bsky.social•11 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/thexq.bsky.social/post/3lrhv3melik26

massdisillusion.bsky.social•11 days ago

risks are dramatically reduced, already

theturk.bsky.social•11 days ago

My fear is the greater threat of escalation triggered by the most recent Israeli pre-emptive defensive attack on Iranian targets. At some point Israel will nuke Iran and it's non-nuclear armed allies. It has a track record of reacting with excessive force with no regard for innocent lives.

norcaldawg.bsky.social•11 days ago

Neither is Israel’s. Hopefully Iran’s retribution exposes that.

andrewcrompton.bsky.social•11 days ago

No right to self defence for Iran either then?

aphclarkson.bsky.social•11 days ago

The Iranians and Israelis have been waging an increasingly open war against each other for a while. In enabling Hezbollah and the Houthis the Iranians have played their own role in this escalation cycle.

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