If limited military action cannot destroy a state's ability to develop a nuclear weapon then the next step for strategic planners devoid of any scruples or concerns for what comes next is to develop unlimited military action that destroys that state
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Perhaps it's stating the obvious, but unlimited destructive military action doesn't automatically secure nuclear materials, or eliminate those who would wish to use them.
A struggle to grasp how policymakers in different socio-economic and institutional contexts from the US, EU or China might have far fewer scruples about opting for unlimited warfare arcs back to the point I made here https://bsky.app/profile/aphclarkson.bsky.social/post/3lrpijyeyy22g
Within 12 hours of the start of Israel's operations it should have been clear to every observer that the Israeli government's strategic goals go far beyond flattening Fordow.
Remove Iran from the geopolitical chessboard. If the regime is replaced by a more democratic, friendly government, that's nice, but failing that they'd be happy for Iran to collapse into a decade of civil war like Syria.
exactly, everybody talking about deescalation and deals is paying lip service at best, to the point I suspect some are just giving narrative cover bc they can't possibly be so naive, it's very clear that this is not about deals it's about removing a perceived threat while the window is still open
Regime change. Iran is a regional power with boundless hatred of Israel. This could also explain the passivity of Saudi Arabia, Iran's fiercest competitor in the region. Saudi Arabia is more willing to cooperate with Israel than most Middle Eastern countries.
Netanyahu needs forever-wars to stay out of jail. His relifascist coalition partners want chaos to further their agenda of stealing more and more land 🤔.
It appears as an all-in gamble in a sense, as even partial success risks embedding as existential strategic prerequisite a nuclear and conventional deterrence for the current or future regime/administrations.
Netanyahu needs forever wars to stay in power and escape jail. Now that the genocide in Gaza is under way, he can't maintain his reign with just more and more mass slaughter and famine. He needs a bigger threat.
So, Iran.
Of course, the USA will settle most of the bills.
Then, if some miscalculation causes the handy Iranian bogeyman to crumble, Netanyahu will find another war. Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq... whatever. He won't attack Turkey however, because that country can fight back.
I think a large scale invasion of troops and tanks, etc by Israel, would cause other Arab Countries to become involved. That involvement could lead the US into the conflict, and cause the US to have “boots on the ground”! In other words this could spiral out of control and lead to a WWIII scenario!
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https://bsky.app/profile/aphclarkson.bsky.social/post/3lrpijyeyy22g
There's only so much they can silo off their disagreements when dealing with Iran, but they're doing their utmost.
Is that really hard to understand?
So, Iran.
Of course, the USA will settle most of the bills.