In answer to @jonnelledge.bsky.social's original question (I’ll come to the NDP collapse in due course), it was Justin Trudeau’s resignation in early January that triggered the dramatic swing in poll numbers. @internetthought.bsky.social 1/n - ThreadSky

tmpear.bsky.social • 50 days ago

In answer to @jonnelledge.bsky.social's original question (I’ll come to the NDP collapse in due course), it was Justin Trudeau’s resignation in early January that triggered the dramatic swing in poll numbers. @internetthought.bsky.social
1/n

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tmpear.bsky.social•50 days ago

Trudeau had long ago reached his best-before date and there had been concerted efforts within the Liberal Party to oust him well back into 2024. Trudeau’s departure would not have had the effect it did, however, if not for the election of Trump... 2/n

tmpear.bsky.social•50 days ago

... and his subsequent antagonisms toward Canada: his trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state. In Mark Carney, the Liberals chose a leader who seemed tailor-made for the moment: he could be packaged as a “serious” politician whose experience leading the Banks of Canada & England... 3/n

tmpear.bsky.social•50 days ago

... through the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit respectively apparently proved him the steady hand the crisis demanded. Carney’s attributes contrasted well with his principal opponent, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. 4/n

tmpear.bsky.social•50 days ago

A career politician, Poilievre has little gravitas and—despite concerted efforts to package him as a likeable family man who “gets” working people—Canadians have failed to warm to him. There’s a strong argument his advantage was simply that voters disliked Trudeau more. 5/n

tmpear.bsky.social•50 days ago

And then there is Poilievre’s achilles heel: his Trump-lite ideology, policy positions and persona. Poilievre had used inflation as a cudgel to very effectively beat Trudeau into retirement, building a huge lead between mid-2023 and late-2024. 6/n

tmpear.bsky.social•50 days ago

But absent Trudeau and with Trump's arrival he was vulnerable. Could he really take on the man whose policy positions he had aped and whose language he had often copied? (The Liberals have run ads that show Trump and Poilievre saying the same thing in identical or near identical wording.) 7/n

deathbybacklog.bsky.social•50 days ago

jonnelledge.bsky.social•50 days ago

That more than Trump? Were both not necessary conditions?

tmpear.bsky.social•50 days ago

Both, for sure. Absent Trump, I think the Conservatives would still be ahead in the polls, although I suspect Carney would have closed the gap somewhat.

jonnelledge.bsky.social•50 days ago

Do you think the Liberals will do it?

tmpear.bsky.social•50 days ago

They're clear favourites and the trend is of little or no trend, with most parties' numbers holding steady within the margins of error. Since the campaign began, the Liberals have been hovering in the low- to mid-40s, with the Cons 37-39 (granted, with outliers for both).

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