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aaronschatz.com
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN+ writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
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Started working yesterday on an ESPN piece, "one more move each team should make." Had the Colts signing Germaine Pratt. Whoops. This is what happens when you try not to procrastinate.

Music post: OMG, Salem 66 is now available on digital and streaming! Great Boston band from the late 80s, I still have a couple of their albums on cassettes. Highlight of my high school years. pitchfork.com/reviews/albu...

If every NFL team lost their starters, who’d be best off? 🏈 Here's how @danieltkelley.bsky.social ranks them — Top 5 backup units for 2025: 1️⃣ Ravens 2️⃣ Packers 3️⃣ Falcons 4️⃣ Lions 5️⃣ Buccaneers

Did you miss this yesterday?

Hey, Steelers fans! I wrote something about your new quarterback! Always good to Aaron Rodgers topping a leaderboard and... oh, I seem to have this one upside down. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/passing-...

New from @brykno.bsky.social on @ftnfantasy.com (FREE): Aaron Rodgers' bad year. We measure passing +/-, how many passes QBs complete compared to expectation, and Rodgers had one of the worst figures since 2006. Goff, Hurts, and Geno Smith were on top. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/passing-...

Have you ever wondered, "Hey, I wonder what was the worst Thanksgiving game in NFL history?" In 1980, the Cowboys beat the Seahawks 51-7. The Seahawks took six sacks, had seven turnovers, and a safety from intentional grounding in the end zone. www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/19...

Jaire Alexander coverage DVOA 2023: 7 games, 12.1% 2024: 7 games, -44.7% Typical CB inconsistency + small sample size + injury history = who knows what's next?

I decided to turn on the UFL playoffs and Michigan already punted on fourth and a foot from their own 45.

I keep seeing posts about how Bluesky is declining and I just think we need to wait for football season to come back around again. It makes all social media better!

Which is the best spot in a conventional snake fantasy draft for 2025? And which is the worst? ftnfantasy.com/nfl/the-best...

90 days until the NFL season kicks off! This graphic has the 14 players with the most approximate value wearing the #90 jersey. How many can YOU name? We say goodbye to our pass-rusher focused stretch here, as the WRs limber up for a run...

We voted for Derwin James as a slot corner in the All-Pro voting because he actually played more slot corner than safety last season!

Post of the day.

Another thing I've said before and I'll say again: I don't think Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers are a good match.

I've said this before and I'll say this again. If you're going to pick teams based on the politics of certain players (or ex-players), you're going to be severely disappointed whether you're on the left or the right. Every team has a mix of dudes. Owners, well, that's a different story.

Our long national nightmare of waiting is over. Pittsburgh's long local nightmare has just begun.

I wrote for ESPN about the eight teams in last place last year, and who is most likely to go from worst to first (the 49ers, by a lot). www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

The 49ers are hiring a Football R&D Analyst: career4.successfactors.com/sfcareer/job...

Did you miss this earlier today?

This year's look at caused versus uncaused pressure rates! You probably don't need advanced stats to tell you the Chiefs had left tackle problems in 2024. But here are some anyway! ftnfantasy.com/nfl/caused-p...

New from @brykno.bsky.social on @ftnfantasy.com: which QBs take pressure because the OL gives way, and which QBs take pressure on their own? Shows how the Chiefs OL really fell apart in 2024. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/caused-p...

New Series! Five Signature Moments from Dallas Cowboys history. miketanier.substack.com/p/five-signa...

Only 1️⃣ running back has been stuffed at or before the line of scrimmage on 20% or more of his carries in *each of the last three seasons* (min. 150 carries) ➡️ Kenneth Walker #Seahawks 2025 Offensive Line Rankings: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2025-off... @ftnfantasy.com

Still a very good player, this is a definite loss for the Lions.

My good friend @mattlombardo.bsky.social are teaming up for a Pride Month special. 🏈 Subscribe to Too Deep Zone for one year, get six months of Between the Hashmarks for free! 🏳️‍🌈 AND 20% of your subscription will be donated to The Trevor Project. Details: miketanier.substack.com/p/matt-lomba...

95 days until the NFL season kicks off! This graphic has the 15 players with the most approximate value wearing the #95 jersey. How many can YOU name? 95 is clearly a much cooler number than 96-98. Lots of fun names on this one.

Shhhhhh... someone seems to have psychically gotten a hold of the FTN Almanac 2025 projections...

Now I have to go update the Bills special teams comments for the book with more Jake Camarda information!

If you've got pass rush problems, I feel bad for you son... There are 99 days left until the 2025 NFL season begins. This graphic has the 15 players with the most approximate value wearing the #99 jersey. How many can YOU name? 🥉: 4 🥈: 7 🥇 13 🏆: 15

EA Sports College Football 26 has Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams on the cover which is bad for me because I keep getting them confused. On a radio appearance a couple weeks ago I talked about Emeka Egbuka competing with Ryan Williams for targets and felt like an idiot afterwards.

Just found this article about comics legend Jack Kirby designing futuristic NFL uniforms. Check out the Fran Tarkenton of the FUTURE! www.cbr.com/jack-kirby-n...

This week on FTN: Pressure rate by number of pass rushers! Brian Flores remains a mad bomber. I knew Robert Saleh wasn't much of a blitzer; I just didn't realize how consistent he was at sending four. The Lions replaced quality with quantity. More: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2024-bli...

New at @ftnfantasy.com from @brykno.bsky.social: The blitz is back! Let's look at 2024 blitz rates and which teams were the best blitzing or sending four. Plenty of success without blitzing: 49ers, Eagles, Ravens The blitz kings: Vikings ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2024-bli...

Memorial Day sale! Get all your DVOA numbers and elite fantasy football projections.

Lots of comments in various places that my ESPN underrated players article was missing Zach Seiler. I just wanted to give more love to Zach Allen at iDL but Seiler would have been a good pick as well! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

In case you missed this earlier today.

I can't read anything about the baseball player Christian Walker without thinking about the old Brian Bendis comic book "Powers."

I have an extra Super Bowl LIX program for a lucky Eagles fan out there. I'll send it to the first FTN subscriber who emails me at [email protected]. Yes, I'll check that you're actually a subscriber!

New for ESPN: Picking the most underrated players at every position from Brock Purdy to Corey Bojorquez, plus a couple Buffalo Bills DBs and my usual love for Lavonte David. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...