aaronshem.bsky.social
UofM IO&E, Optimization, Risk Mgt, Financial Eng/Engineering Economy, MBA, Sailor, Biker, Horse Riding, Oil painting, Acro, Aerial (Lift people, not weights.)
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m.youtube.com/watch?v=iLDz...
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Prediction is looking good.
Possible el nino may keep it on high side.
bsky.app/profile/aaro...
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6/š§µ
Right now, Iām guessing high winds breaking & pushing sea ice. Lots of precipitation releasing latent heat. More sea surface losing heat, but where thereās ice it is thickening. The thicker ice will last more into summer. The latent heat release will radiate away in the dry winter air.
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5/š§µ
This makes Gavinās prediction look pretty solid. bsky.app/profile/clim...
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www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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4/š§µ
This could destabilize the PV & cause continued high temperatures anomalies everywhere. That would mean another hot year, but also a lot of heat loss. x.com/PaulRoundy1/...
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3/š§µ
we may see slightly elevated arctic temperatures as the rest of the world cools. However, Paul Roundy notes recent westerly winds are releasing heat thatās been storing up in the indian ocean for decades & could trigger el nino this summerā¦
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2/š§µ
There will be less heat loss by ocean & slightly less SW absorption in JJA, keeping arctic atmospheric temperatures low if thatās the case. Otherwise latent heat change from additional ice melt will keep temps relatively low as more heat flows into the arctic, if thatās the caseā¦
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They are likely to have people whoāve looked at the best cases for both sides.
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It will weaken because of natural variability. It has little to do with albedo or ice feedback. The angle of incidence is high as you get more north, so it doesnāt affect albedo much. Clouds also make ice reduction mostly irrelevant. It will continue to warm heat transport from the SH will increase.
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Given the ground hog tradition has been mostly about the northeast and maybe midwest, itās looking iffy.
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Nature drives me nuts. Subscription is ridiculously expensive, and for unknown reason doesnāt include anything before 2017, which is most of the best research.
Is there some major bandwidth problem for those servers?! Why!?
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Nope. The model way overestimates warming. The model estimated a .84C temperature rise from 1980 to 409ppm CO2. The actual temperature rise at 409ppm was .56C ~2018, ~50% too high. But this was below trend. If you use the expected trend value itās better ~.76C (using BEST), ~10%-20% too high. 1/š§µ
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4/š§µUsing a data set more consistent with those used in the 80s, like HadCRU3, the temperature increase estimate is only .57C 1980-2018. So weāre back to an estimated trend more than 300% too high.
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3/š§µwhich wouldāve been slightly less than a 1.8C temperature increase from 1980 in the exxon model. Well over 200% actual trend.
Now, BEST is in the middle. NOAA estimates .68C & NASA .79C. But these estimates are very different than how people estimated global average temp in the 70s & 80s.
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2/š§µBut this makes it seem way better than it actually is. They estimate this for CO2 alone, CO2 is only a portion of the actual greenhouse increase. The actual forcing was ~40% bigger than CO2 alone. So no, the model was not accurate. Not even remotely. The actual forcing in 2018 was eCO2 502ppmā¦
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Nope. The model way overestimates warming. The model estimated a .84C temperature rise from 1980 to 409ppm CO2. The actual temperature rise at 409ppm was .56C ~2018, ~50% too high. But this was below trend. If you use the expected trend value itās better ~.76C (using BEST), ~10%-20% too high. 1/š§µ
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Not surprised. No one benefits from the climate scam more than big oil and OPEC.
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Literally sick to my stomach:
āFor the first time since World War II, global access to electricity declined in 2022, and likely remained flat in 2023. This left more people relying on traditional energy sources, which leads to increased health threats and rising air pollution.ā
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Literally sick to my stomach:
āFor the first time since World War II, global access to electricity declined in 2022, and likely remained flat in 2023. This left more people relying on traditional energy sources, which leads to increased health threats and rising air pollution.ā
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7/š§µ
If Climate Activists were smart, theyād use the Green Paradox to their advantage to get people on board & accelerate transitioning to a less carbon intensive future. But it requires accelerating fossil fuel use in the short/medium termā¦
x.com/rogerpielkej...
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āDepartures of several standard deviations from the mean, although rare, are far more common in such a distinctively non-Gaussian world than they are in a Gaussian world.ā
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
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The events weāre concerned with are probably > 6 sigma.
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Probably more left skewness for most things. Tails largely donāt change or thin.
Precipitation āextremesā do increase for more normal weather (Clausius-Clapeyron) , but the big really big, thin tail, damaging events are governed by different dynamics. Big temp swings which decrease with warming.
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The trend is strongly in the direction of less frequent, less intense, shorter duration, and less area with warming (though it could be coincidental solar activity increases).
If any of the recently data mined hypotheses have any impact, itās trivial. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
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8/š§µ
Establishment of this dynamic could keep prices too low for most new major reserves to be developed before costs of alternatives make fossil fuels near worthlessā¦ web.mit.edu/krugman/www/...
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7/š§µ
If Climate Activists were smart, theyād use the Green Paradox to their advantage to get people on board & accelerate transitioning to a less carbon intensive future. But it requires accelerating fossil fuel use in the short/medium termā¦
x.com/rogerpielkej...
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6/š§µ
This has been an epic foreign policy disaster, driving the developing world into the open arms of Russia & Chinaā¦
www.brookings.edu/articles/chi...
www.wsj.com/articles/sol...
foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/08/c...
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5/š§µ
Doing too much wind & solar here drives up the cost there (though energiewende did drive economies of scale, theyāre exhausted now.) Egregious since we wonāt finance reliable fossil fuels projects there & tie aid to promises for wind & solarā¦
energychamber.org/africa-faces...
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4/š§µ
Western emissions are essentially irrelevant to future warming. The way to keep concentration growth down is to figure out how to develop Africa & Asia without using too much coalā¦
x.com/aaronshem/st...
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3/š§µ
We also see pushes for changes to our agriculture system that will increase risk & probably exacerbate chronic health problems. Weāve delayed progress in productivity in africa which means more environmental destruction & less progress in nutrition improvementā¦
x.com/tednordhaus/...
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Weād be much further along without the distraction of premature expansion of wind & solar. Nuclear could have achieved far more, faster & cheaperā¦ twitter.com/aaronshem/st...
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Though, I suppose itās possible that harsher winters today than during HCO may prevent the biological activity at the surface that may have captured methane and CO2 releases from below back then. If albedo was lower in the SH summer, heat transport to NH in winter was likely much higher.
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This is likely just a temporary effect of the recent global weather phenomenon. A similar, more intense event happened in the 1870s.
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CO2 and methane actually started climbing when they began to freeze again.
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Itās also thawed before and CO2 and methane concentrations fell. This is likely just natural variability. Thawing was likely faster in the early holocene, when thaw reached these lands there was a switch from release to uptake.
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Or just not being embarrassingly insane.
āHorrific: this member of the village people appears to be doing two Nazi salutes at the same time š”š”š”ā
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āIn this study, we take advantage of the predictable nature of natural variabilityā šš¬
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What do wild pollen proxies say?
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Crops have essentially no impact on annual uptake because nearly all of the CO2 captured is released. But they are an indication of uptake in general. Do you really think the forest were able to be productive while crops that have the benefit of human intervention struggle?