adamgoodtime.bsky.social
Into politics, technology, capital markets and their intersections.
261 posts
59 followers
151 following
Getting Started
Active Commenter
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@lioneltrolling.bsky.social this is the kind of rhyme you dig out and do great work out of, check it out
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And lived to tell the tale!
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So what? The mighty British Empire and the fearsome USSR did too.
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I used to think a history degree was basically pointless. A kind of Oxford gatepass. But since user-generated online content became a thing, have realised that three years' training in assuming biases and checking sources is unbelievably useful.
And rare.
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I was thinking a Berlusconi Gaddafi hybrid with Mugabe characteristics, something they couldn’t have conceived of or designed for, I was probably not giving them enough credit.
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I hope you’re right. You’ve been advocating for cooler heads, trust in the intrinsic resilience of the system, belief that a level of normalcy would hold since the beginning of all this and they mostly shat all over that, so I can’t dismiss the alarmists and fatalists among us but hope you’re right.
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tech companies play dirty usually and I don’t see that changing.
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Exactly, and I don’t see why it wouldn’t, with time, transition to closed loop cooling systems like many cloud computing data centers did few years ago, and geothermal, nuclear on the energy source side of the equation, huge incentives for both transitions. This is really not the vector along which
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the current relatively recent paradigm not a new one.
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True. I find it useful to not think in term of stages but layers, the agrarian extractive mode didn’t go away we just built a layer on top of it that got so big it made it marginal, so maybe people sense a new layer emerging or the need for one, my instinct is that it’s likely to be an evolution of
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Yes
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If agrarianism is any indication there is a middle golden age, the source of the many “noble savage” interpretations, feudalism being the late sclerotic stage no is tempted to romanticize usually
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Subsistence/agrarian/feudal mode 5K years since urbanized societies, proto capitalism/mercantilist/mass market mode 500 years at most
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No one with the reckless troubled teenager view? Shame
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In a way, it worked if you consider Lega the current effective far-right, Salvini's popularity contracted once he became a minister and not just a social media influencer. Of course, FdI's reformation into mainstream center right is very much up for debate, so big assumption.
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The charge is on distributors or any similar wholesalers that purchase a foreign production to resell in the US? Streaming platforms for the most part these days I’m guessing.
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In the medium term we could observe a distinct set of rules that applies to this third group if it keeps happening, Waning Markets, Sinking or Destabilizing Markets maybe we can call them.
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Historically it starts there, human instinct I guess, nothing breaks barriers and focuses the mind like being under security threat.
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Absolutely, but a lot of it is very conservative institutional money looking for stable trustworthy yield, and the small chunk that goes into venture would build appetite for local venture eventually. Deep massive credit market is step one, the foundation for continental strong capital markets.
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table massive investment capital, to go to US markets.
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I trust Europe much more, why am I being offered US treasuries and equities in every single app, brokerage. Because some politicians in the Netherlands or Austria have brain worms and prejudicially think that borrowing collectively with the Italians or Greek is going to mean ruin. Leaving on the
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in US credit markets, and equity markets at the scale they are is crazy and self sabotaging.
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Europe does that relatively, the curve never get as skewed as they are elsewhere. Needs massive investment, borrow as EU collectively the world is desperate for an alternative to US treasuries and invest like there is no tomorrow. Also institutional money, pensions funds and the rest, being parked
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The idea that Europeans just don’t have it is a lazy meme, they did it before and more than anyone else inside each country, various reconstructions, urbanization waves, post war eras. Needs to be continental.
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Exactly, some of that yolo frontier spirit, empty that bank account on your new Swedish move. People need to feel like they can do that and be ok, start a business, get a job that pays well and so on.
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Europe, the geography for it is there, nowhere else metros are clustered like they are in Europe. People need the incentive to chase opportunity around Europe pretty much, there is a lot of that since low cost airlines, needs a post war type scale.
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Historically family formation is the big one, biggest consumption window, so demographics matters a lot, and the picture there is not great. But there are things that approximate that, higher mobility is the one I am more hopeful for. The infrastructure for it is being planned and built around
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And can’t afford not trying, doubling down on the current model too risky. Seems to be slowly turning into consensus in Germany but who knows.
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o flat growth. Private savings as insurance against lack of growth. So a different model is needed I think, higher incomes and so on, and the EU structurally can.
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China will probably not leave much space for competition there, they can’t afford it. The EU’s consumption as percentage of gdp is around 50% vs US’s 70% roughly, a good chunk of that goes into private savings, higher in the EU, low in relative terms in the US. I think this is due to years
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True, so then the question is: is trade war war?
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Unprecedented blanket tariffs with annexed retaliatory measures including foreign boycotts maybe edge it
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Pointedly precise, at least this is what I perceive from the Vance angle, the most hostile I think so this matters. There are other flavours and variations probably.
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Maybe if you (allocate capital to) build it, they will come? It can also be that Germany on the front foot on this generates the kind of political will for a rational EU-wide immigration policy. Not looking good otherwise.
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That and the Carbone guy, Middle Easterners and North Africans are to Europe what Italian were to America a century ago.
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There is no humanism where one doesn't think globally
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My guess is that level of variance starts showing up when we cross a certain number of daily users. At least there is a higher chance of that I think than X reverting to what used to be.
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In both directions, Trump scolded the Irish prime minister about it the other day. Pfizer tried and failed 10 years ago to relocate there through a dummy merger, maybe this time they'll try harder. Not sure about defence for example, depends how far the buy European stuff goes.
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Wish more kept this in mind. There’s never going to be a groundswell of rich people willing to fund a progressive media & propaganda ecosystem b/c our agenda isn’t about cutting their taxes & de-regulating all their businesses.
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More self imposed hardship, Florida and Arizona edition
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And will never end well
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They’re arguing for low trust barbarism for some f’up reason. Maybe I shouldn’t go there but that low trust no empathy for the other is that South African shit, and it leads straight to apartheid hell but he’s ok with it because he plans to be the mother of all boots on all our necks, just depraved.
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The "commercial sector" must be a South African thing, instead of private sector