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andybeger.bsky.social
Data/political scientist. Pro-democracy, pro-NATO, pro-US.
150 posts 170 followers 307 following
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‘This is the looting of America’: Trump and Co’s extraordinary conflicts of interest in his second term www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

It's totally unsustainable in terms of democratic legitimacy. We need to have uncomfortable conversations about this, & to start talking loudly & regularly about major institutional reform of our electoral & legislative institutions: 🧵👇 bsky.app/profile/mcop...

Breaking @propublica.org: Bukele of El Salvador has become one of Trump’s favorite authoritarians, and Trump touts him as a foe of MS-13. But a US investigation has found evidence he has colluded with the gang, even paying it for votes. www.propublica.org/article/buke...

Great writeup of how outrageously inappropriate Trump's Fort Brag speech was. Those soldiers cheering while in uniform at what basically was a political rally are completely out of line, and so is the chain of command that enabled this. www.military.com/daily-news/2...

BREAKING NEWS: a clearly physically impaired Trump struggles to ascend Air Force One big stairs! What are they hiding about the President’s health?

Excellent NYT graphic. In the space of about 3 months, tariffs on China: -- doubled; -- went up ≈ 2.5X from there; -- roughly doubled again; -- went up ≈ 40% from there; -- and now have dropped ≈ 80% from the peak -- but are still 3X what they were in February. www.nytimes.com/article/trum...

New in PN: Trump's brain is gone "Trump’s competence has always left a lot to be desired, but recent interviews show a president who’s no longer capable of even the veneer of mental acuity. Meanwhile, his party behaves like courtiers to a mad king."

If we know where they were sent, but it isn’t to detention: exile. If we know where they are & it’s in detention: extraordinary rendition. If we don’t know where they are, but we know someone’s holding them: kidnapping. Otherwise, if we don’t know where they are: disappearance.

Larry David gets to subtweet Bill Maher in the pages of the NY Times. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/21/o...

This is a fascinating insight from @reuters.com about North Korea’s very significant materiel support to Russia’s war against #Ukraine - as well as insights into targetable vulnerabilities in the Russian strategic logistic system. www.reuters.com/graphics/UKR...

Mr. Abrego Garcia was illegally abducted by the Trump Admin and, by their own admission, wrongly deported to El Salvador. He shouldn’t have to spend another second away from his family. I'm flying to El Salvador tomorrow morning to check on his condition and discuss his return.

Via @michael-thomas.bsky.social - the 2-year upward trend in manufacturing construction spending in the U.S. has reversed and is starting to decline.

I get the desire to explain what the Trump administration is doing through rational political science, I really do. But such an approach misses a fundamental truth. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/there-are-...

Hello! The US housing market has gotten very expensive, but I still dream of one day owning a home in a walkable neighborhood. In that spirit, I'm offering my consulting services. If you support the Trump tariffs, I can help you find US suppliers. Let me show you some examples. 🧵

Trump 2025 is crashing the economy like no one since Trump 2017. How on Earth it's possible that business thinks Republicans are good for them is beyond me. From github.com/jhelvy/chart...

Latvia has done more to honor the 4 US soldiers who tragically died in a training accident than President Trump, who apparently would rather go golfing. abcnews.go.com/Internationa...

🧵 I've been reviewing many of the past year's US & European military & intelligence assessments of how long it would take Russia to rebuild its military capability and the timeline on which any threat to NATO could unfold. A brief thread below which summarises these assessments.

Fact-checking these pathological liars is exhausting, but important to note that this claim - that US sanctions mean zero trade with Russia, so no tariffs needed - is completely false. By USTR’s own count American imported $3bn of Russian goods last year. ustr.gov/countries-re...

Those trying to understand the tariffs as economic policy are dangerously naive. No, the tariffs are a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief. 1/ A 🧵 to explain his plan and how we fight back.

The usual excellent read from @phillipspobrien.bsky.social . One message is that the ground war is pretty well stalemated since drones make it impossible to build up the logistical support needed to sustain any infantry breakthrough. Big question is whether Europe can unite enough to fill in for USA

On Witkoff: “With little previous background in international diplomacy, he betrays no concerns about Putin’s trustworthiness or the validity of his claims. He appears to be more Putin’s envoy to Trump than the other way round.”

THREAD: Key questions today for every reporter and Congressman looking into #Signalgate: 1. How can anyone (aka Trump) trust Mike Waltz going forward since he's so dumb as to add a reporter to such a highly secretive group chat?

For the AM crowd: danieldrezner.substack.com/p/american-f...

Insightful column by @kevinmkruse.bsky.social on the SignalGate scandal. "Less attention has been made to the equally horrifying fact that, in private, these people seem immensely stupid." and all the unacceptable implications flowing from that... campaign-trails.ghost.io/signal-marke...

The NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER added the EDITOR OF THE ATLANTIC to a PRINCIPALS COMMITTEE TEXT CHAIN set up for the DEFENSE SECRETARY about PLANNED MILITARY STRIKES. Here's a thread of involved parties talking about the need for secure communications (when Dems are involved):

I can’t compete with this

Very informative and somewhat optimistic thread on the situation in Ukraine. 👇

🔎 Which aspects of democracy most commonly improve during democratization? 19 countries were democratizing in 2024, using to the ERT Methodology. The figure shows the NR of countries improving on the top 20 indicators, from the start of each country’s democratization episode to 2024. #polisky 🧵1(4)

Did you know that all the fine artisanal memes from my stats lectures are available in the course repo? Reuse and remixing freely encouraged github.com/rmcelreath/s...