andyharless.bsky.social
datums scientist; economist; rhapsode; urban hiker; XCH, StellaCoin, pre08 NGDP trajectory maxi; pair of ragged claws scuttling across the floors of silent seas
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In general I would always want to go with the poet’s usage, especially for someone with the stature of Yeats, who may be said to have had a license to mispronounce. Then you can get, for example, the near alliteration of “turning” (pronounced with an Irish accent) and “gyre” in The Second Coming.
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Lewis Carroll explicitly said his verb “gyre” used a hard G. Apparently it’s not 100% cleat if Yeats followed the same usage (and technically it’s not the same word), but the case where it was mistranscribed by a stenographer as “guyer” seems like pretty strong evidence.
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On researching this further, I'm increasingly convinced that "hard" is the better answer. (See this Thread.) www.threads.com/@adharless/p...
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The campaign was effective to the extent that it relied on effects that were specific to battleground states (advertising, canvassing, etc.), but non-battleground-specific aspects of the campaign (e.g., national earned media, podcasts—or lack thereof, etc.) may have been ineffective.
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Of course that's looking at AI in isolation from other things that are going on at the same time, such as trade wars, which might have the opposite effect on the employment-inflation relationship, If I were betting on the real-world outcome of all that's going on, my bet would be neutral or negative
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If I had to guess I'd say the most likely candidate is the first & that it will result in AI having a positive net effect on employment, by the same mechanism that happened in the late 1990s: when productivity accelerates, wages take a long time to catch up, allowing the Fed to run the economy hot.
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If you want to argue an aggregate employment effect one way or the other, you need to argue AI will do one of the following:
- change the employment-inflation relationship
- cause central banks to misjudge
- change central banks' balance of risks
- constrain monetary policy
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In the simplest model, where central banks don't make any mistakes, interest rates remain well above zero, and AI has no effect on the relationship between employment and inflation, the net aggregate effect of AI on employment will be precisely zero regardless of what its direct effect is.
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Also, I forgot Willie Nelson.
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But honestly I think Russia has done more harm to Russia than any of these other countries. I think Russia should be the clear winner in the "Russia's number 1 enemy" contest. (For the past 4 months I would say a similar thing about the US.)
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But in a country like the US that has comparatively more capital and less labor than the average country, wouldn't you expect the Heckscher-Ohlin effect from a reduction in trade to shift the distribution of income from capital to labor?
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You have GDP plotted on a linear scale. From this graph it’s hard to tell how much the growth rate has increased. Without context, my conclusion would be that the passage of time is the driving variable here, and liberalism coincided with a reduction in poverty just because they’re both recent.
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Tea for One
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Five Hundred Thousand Years B.C.
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Guy and Doll
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Ocean’s Five-and-a-Half
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The 2 Seasons
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Bob and Carol
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Butterfield 4
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The 1.5 Faces of Eve
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The Hunt for Red May
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Raisins of Wrath
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Beige Submarine
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Unicycle Thieves?