atticushawk.bsky.social
Gestalt thinker with a conscience. My opinions are just words but they are backed by a fair degree of fact finding, analysis and real world experience.
173 posts
32 followers
22 following
Active Commenter
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Does that mean Urals at about $45?
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From what I saw, the two A-50 were already cannibalised. This would indicate that they still have 2 serviceable ones left flying. The ones they hit got hit in the Radar dome though, so that means they will never be usable again - the Russians cannot make anything that sophisticated themselves.
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My mate had one of those… half or it was chickenwire and putty thanks to the massive amounts of rust it was subject to. The earlier versions were better.
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…and on the eve of NATO talks that look like they will partially side-line Zelensky, the Ukrainians take out a large proportion of the strategic weaponry that scares NATO in the first place. Zelensky and Budanov are more than just clever, they are magicians.
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You know my thoughts on this. They haven’t changed in 2 years… Feb/March 2026 will see a turning point and the collapse will probably be swift at that point. The rot will be the oligarchs in the second tier who stand to lose everything but have no current say. An audacious few will augur change.
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I spent a decade in management in the energy industry. Shale was originally almost a ‘hail Mary’ for the Americans given how their fortunes were dominated by OPEC, and it paid off. OPEC wants its power back but was willing to balance that with US ambitions since it was profitable to do so. Not now.
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That latter bit about US shale is striking. OPEC+ getting stroppy about Trumps economic roughhousing, do you think?
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That’s not what I am advocating. Interests exist between enemies unless they are implacable. The good/bad guy view ignores this nuance. For example, Britain and France have been enemies for a thousand years but have learned to leave this outside of their interactions in pursuit of their interests.
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Just a sociopath, nothing to see here, move along.
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Agreed… Speak softly but carry a big stick is a powerful strategic stance.
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So talking with, and working with the Chinese is just a method of competing that does not involve conflict. In my experience, China also prefer this approach. Seeing them as enemies is just the old Hollywood good guy/bad guy meme and we have to stop seeing it that way.
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If we keep seeing things in terms of friends and enemies then we will never operate to our full capacity. US and China have ‘interests’ and will either work with us or against us in the pursuit of them. When two competing interests collide then you have a choice of either conflict or negotiation….
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Totally agree with this. Europe must act as if it is preparing for a siege and build up not only its military might but also its supply chains, financial reserves and international alliances.
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If you think they are going to let you have that vote, then that is why you aren’t on the streets fighting for your very survival. They act like they don’t care about the mid-terms… that should give you a clue.
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If you go deeper into the headline number you will see shrinkage everywhere except in the production of arms and its associated secondary industries. Russian energy is down, banking is down, retail is down, domestic productivity is down, international trade is down, tax receipts are way down, etc.
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It is inevitable. We just don’t know when the Russians will stop waring with its neighbours. Hopefully Ukraine will see an end to it, but I doubt that.
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Registers are maintained against every donation to a public official or business manager above £50 in UK for future analysis of potential for quid pro quo. Failure to declare is a crime. So no, it does not have to be explicit - any connection between donations and deals requires investigation.
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When Russia falls, a monument should be placed in Red Square that just lists all of the broken agreements, invasions and crimes against the people of foreign nations that resulted in the eventual downfall of the regime. It should be chiseled in granite and inaugurated by Zelensky in person.
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Lol… two words… Finland, Dickhead.
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It’s not “just a tree”. It is a deliberate act of vandalism perpetrated against a high profile beauty spot, destroying the vista for no reason other than to watch and revel in people’s reactions. Their actions are disturbing and they should be removed from society until they understand their crime.
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The trouble is, when one side is fighting total war and the other is reluctant to even fight….and its still a draw… perhaps the Russians are just losing this? When Europe decides it’s had enough and prepares for war, then the Russians might realise that they’re not going to get what they want.
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The Art of the Deal…. My arse. Zelensky and his team have shown Trump only has a few plays he regularly uses and which catch a few people out, but when you stand your ground and he can’t tie you up in legal process then he caves.
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It’s his view of any deal… the other parties are not factored in. If the rest of the world views US economics as too volatile then they will reduce trade significantly due to risk. So RoW just trades amongst themselves until USA wakes up. Meanwhile, US taxpayers get shafted until tariffs drop again.
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And what will US economic growth be? Anything less than 6.5% means there’s a recession about to hit. Anything less than 1.5% means it is almost certainly going to become a depression.
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If Russia rearms then this has the risk of being existential for Eastern Europe and highly damaging for Western Europe. The potential cost of full trade war with USA should be measured against the cost of war with Russia. Detaching from US corporate and financial svcs might be beneficial in the end.
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As per my comment on your website, a strategy needs to be devised that makes US removal of sanctions on Russia an unattractive prospect to the American economy and world influence. Perhaps something that could force a move on the dollar, or partial/complete restriction of Services trade in Europe?
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We’ll wait for the cartoon of a Ukrainian drone in space… 😆
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Europe+ is a coalition that will take time to coordinate. But nations can develop their capabilities initially on their own and then begin to integrate. Europe doesnt have time to do it any other way.
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…at this point, the US is irrelevant. Partnership in warfare is all about trust and common goals. Trump has destroyed the first and seems to differ on the second. If Europe turns to high-volume drone work then there is a bonus in that there are many commercial markets for that as well.
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The UK was a subject of disinformation aimed at the powerful few who had something to lose. It will be your turn next unless we learn to understand these matters, overcome our grievances, and operate as a clan against those that would divide us. They succeeded with UK but only because of lies.
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It needs to be remembered that NATO was already implementing drones (switchblade at a ridiculous cost per unit, etc) but, as usual, slowly and with great expense. Ukraine has taught us that they can be a £300 per shot mass produced weapon and so that’s where we need to be thinking different.
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My full reply indicates 20%+ viability chance based on known factors. Thus if the vast majority of babies with a certain condition die prior to, or immediately following childbirth then it should be possible to terminate late. No foetus has been known to be viable before 21 weeks.
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I also think that if the mother is ever at risk during the pregnancy then there can be a medical opinion regarding the choice between the life of the mother and of the foetus that might result in a late term abortion of a potentially viable foetus. The life over the potential if mother agrees.
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I don’t believe you should ever put the mother at risk where viability at the point of decision is less than 20%. The mother has absolute rights over her body until that point. In my humble opinion.
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…until the viability test is met. 20%+ means that more than 1 in 5 have been statistically proven to survive at that point in the pregnancy with whatever complications exist. This covers maternal and medical abortion limits.
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It’s a good question. I think a foetus has certain rights that are absolute after they reach 20%+ viability, and retrospective if, on survival there are complications due to external factors (mother doing drugs, violence against the mother, etc). However, I believe the woman’s rights to be absolute.
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The law is a base on which society stands. If it is inconvenient that some lawbreakers cannot be held to account you don’t rip up the law. Just because rape/etc. is a minority of cases, the law must protect them due to their innocence. In several states it does not, and so women’s rights ARE taken.
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What if it was rape? The baby was put in there by someone else without consent? Of course, there’s always immaculate conception… there was no consent there either. Maybe this isn’t actually about the foetus? Instead it is about power over women?
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If it is… and I think it is more about removing power from women, myself… then we are one step away from lawyers suing the mother, God and the Church for abuse when a baby dies, or is born defective. Can we jail the baby if it survives but kills its mother in childbirth? The next logical step?
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You were always right. Zelensky and Ukrainians will not trade land for peace, and they were never going to. Zelensky cannot, without a specific mandate due to the Ukrainian constitution, and the Ukrainian people cannot/will not give him that mandate. This, unfortunately, is a war until one fails.
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Combine harvesters are very complicated machines that break a lot… there are few people around to fix them and difficulties sourcing the parts.
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I read that there is a growing problem with tractors/mechanised farming that is also reducing the yield significantly. Every little helps :)
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Yep. And they are just the start, IMHO. The drone advances will see smaller, more difficult to detect, drone AWACS home made by Ukraine as soon as they can get the tech from Europe.
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The Spring always brings agricultural economic planning cycles into focus. Russia has 1.5% economic growth and 30% price inflation… that affects food supply planning which hits Moscow and StP hard in winter if there are issues. Russia has 6 months plus change before Muscovites start clamouring.
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There is. It includes the Swedish AWACS that started operations over Ukraine two days ago.
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Signs of a build up for war?
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Not only not holidaying there, but also turning down opportunities to provide my expertise there. The USA is currently one of the last places I want to travel and I’m definitely not on their ethnic/religious/lgbtq/etc shitlist - why anyone non-caucasian Christian conservative would go is baffling.
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Charged statement. I was saying a similar thing to a friend of mine in Kiev a couple of weeks ago. When I suggested I came to see him, and bring things he needed, he was emphatic in telling me ‘No! It is too dangerous!’. They know they stand alone but with friends behind them - they will fight on.