Profile avatar
ballotbox.scot
Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights. Donate; http://liberapay.com/ballotboxscot
1,263 posts 8,244 followers 3 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
Posts 21 Comments 29

Some more Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse analysis from me in today's Herald. Afraid I'm banging the same drum I have been since result was announced: actually quite a boring result that simply confirms current polling. www.heraldscotland.com/news/2522178...

submitted 11 hours ago • 5 comments

By-Election Result analysis: Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Everyone wanted this by-election to be a dramatic turning point for the 2026 election. Under the hood though, all we got was confirmation current polling is pretty much accurate.

submitted 1 day ago • 5 comments

By-Election Result analysis: Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Everyone wanted this by-election to be a dramatic turning point for the 2026 election. Under the hood though, all we got was confirmation current polling is pretty much accurate.

submitted 1 day ago • 5 comments

🧵 Where do Reform votes come from? Following Reform's chunky share in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, it's worth looking at where those votes come from. We're not getting much polling in Scotland lately, but we can check the most recent Survation and Norstat (2nd - 5th and 27th - 30th of May)...

submitted 1 day ago • 9 comments

Not to brag, but you're not going to find a juicier and more in-depth look at Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse results than what I'm working on (racing to finish before evening plans but no promises); if you value my work and can afford it, you can support me here: en.liberapay.com/BallotBoxScot/

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

🧵 Where do Reform votes come from? Following Reform's chunky share in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, it's worth looking at where those votes come from. We're not getting much polling in Scotland lately, but we can check the most recent Survation and Norstat (2nd - 5th and 27th - 30th of May)...

submitted 1 day ago • 9 comments

I'm so tired. As if this prick, who voted against my right to (one day, hopefully) have a relationship recognised as equal to a straight couple's, is suddenly pretending to care about homophobia. Just utterly monstrous behaviour by this evil party once again. Sickening.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Labour will certainly be pleased to win this one, but that's a pretty close result; if you run these as uniform swings versus 2021, it only secures a total of 8 Labour constituency MSPs versus 51 for the SNP. As I've said before, this was must-win for Labour, but margin matters, and it's not huge!

submitted 2 days ago • 10 comments

Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse (Scottish Parliament) by-election: Lab: 8539 (31.5%, -2) SNP: 7957 (29.4%, -16.8) RUK: 7088 (26.2%, new) Con: 1621 (6%, -11.5) Grn: 695 (2.6%, new) LD: 533 (2%, -0.8) SSP: 278 (1%, new) Family: 219 (0.8%, new) Ind: 109 (0.4%, new) UKIP: 50 (0.2%, new)

submitted 2 days ago • 8 comments

Comment, not a prediction: turnout of 44.2% is relatively high for a by-election, and you'd *typically* expect that to be a positive sign for the SNP. They do best amongst younger and less affluent voters, who are least likely to turn out, so higher turnout generally means more of their voters.

submitted 2 days ago • 5 comments

Hearing from one source "close between SNP and Labour", and another journalist says "close between SNP and Reform", so if anyone's got "close between Labour and Reform" we can complete the set of "at this point nobody has any clue" predictions.

submitted 2 days ago • 5 comments

You can find a spot of analysis from the respected Ballot Box Scotland website on the Daily Record's live feed: www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politic...

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

Polls now closed in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. Don't expect anything until at least 1am-ish, though South Lanarkshire has historically been our speedy count council. In the meantime, why not watch the world's two biggest yet most pathetic egotists tear strips out of one another?

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

Another useful reminder voters don't all move in neat ways you may assume; for similar, see how local election transfer patterns for even the most one-sided party (Conservative) split 8:1 for Same Side:Opposing Side parties in 2022. Voters, surprisingly non-monolithic! ballotbox.scot/le22-party-p...

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

It's the big Scottish Parliament by-election day for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. The tragic death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie has been followed by a more bitter and intense campaign than expected, with Reform rising and Labour's chances slipping accordingly. ballotbox.scot/preview-hls/

submitted 3 days ago • 8 comments

It's the big Scottish Parliament by-election day for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. The tragic death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie has been followed by a more bitter and intense campaign than expected, with Reform rising and Labour's chances slipping accordingly. ballotbox.scot/preview-hls/

submitted 3 days ago • 8 comments

Just a couple of days to go until the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election! Things have changed rapidly since the start of the campaign, and I would now view this as leaning towards the SNP given the Reform surge will eat away more at the Labour vote. ballotbox.scot/preview-hls/

submitted 5 days ago • 5 comments

This is extremely traumatic and it's in the US not the UK, but it's important: these are the kind of attitudes being re-normalised in a period of resurgent fascism and rampant queerphobia. In this case they have proven deadly. There are people in this country, in our politics, feeding this fire too.

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

Poll Analysis: Norstat 27th - 30th of May 2025 Holyrood seats projection: SNP ~ 59 Labour ~ 20 Reform UK ~ 16 Conservative ~ 15 Green ~ 10 Lib Dem ~ 9 Independence: Yes ~ 54% No ~ 46%

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

"It's my birthday so I'm not going to do any BBS stuff except that auto-scheduled poll analysis piece I finished yesterday... Oh, actually, I've got a while before I go out for a cycle..." What is going on in Dumfries and Galloway? Why have Conservatives lost 6 councillors, all bar one in Galloway?

submitted 6 days ago • 6 comments

Sadly we'll be off to East Renfrewshire later this year for a by-election following the death of Labour councillor Betty Cunningham. One of the councillors for Barrhead, Liboside and Uplawmoor, she was first elected back in 1999 for the prior Barrhead East ward.

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments