ballotbox.scot
Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights.
Donate; http://liberapay.com/ballotboxscot
1,270 posts
8,255 followers
3 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
comment in response to
post
Anyway, a lesson learned for me again: you simply cannot argue with people so strongly partisan they've got their party identity in their handle.
comment in response to
post
Oh, you ran an exit poll for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse did you? It gave you more accurate data than what Norstat or Survation have found? Please do send it my way, I'd be thrilled to see it.
comment in response to
post
Yes, according to reputable national polling it does. As outlined in the thread and the analysis piece you took your screenshot from, it's likely that on average as many 2021 SNP as Labour voters now back Reform, and given how in line with polling the swings here were, I don't see it differing much.
comment in response to
post
Facts are indeed facts and there is nothing more exasperating than tiresome party hacks screaming and howling against those they don't like. It's stupid when SNP folk deny there are any SNP -> Reform movers, and it's equally stupid to pretend that's a bigger bloc than Labour -> Reform.
comment in response to
post
There were also 9,175 fewer valid votes cast at this election compared to 2021; equivalent to 25.3% of all votes cast in 2021. In addition there are four years of voter movement through moving in and out of the constituency, reaching voting age, and, alas, human mortality.
comment in response to
post
Sir, are you having a laugh? You used one of my charts in your previous response to this gentleman, and prior to that you've offered nothing more than anecdata. You can't use my work when it suits and dismiss it when it doesn't, especially when I'm rooting it in data from national polling.
comment in response to
post
(I would add, as I've already seen one critical remark, this isn't a criticism of the Herald: it's quite common and indeed important that papers present conflicting perspectives. I just think, in this case, it's very funny what those perspectives are!)
comment in response to
post
Turnout was actually relatively high in by-election terms; indeed, the turnout for this by-election wasn't even 1% lower than the turnout in this seat for the full election in 2011!
comment in response to
post
It is rather on the nose THIS is on the front page of the same paper I'm quoted saying THAT in..! A real life example of how different my work as an (as I am now described...) "elections expert" is from punditry. I'm here to inform, not to put myself in the orbit of drama or try to set a narrative!
comment in response to
post
I am making highly discerning use of the arcane concept known as "opinion polls" and specifically "tables" which show how many people in the sample voted SNP in 2021/2024 but are now saying they'd vote Reform. I thought that was rather obvious from the thread.
comment in response to
post
An argument well worth having, in my mentions, in response to Scottish politics.
comment in response to
post
Right come on lads gies peace
comment in response to
post
Similar I think to 2016 when a coincidental matchup in SNP list vote decrease and Green increase nationally was taken as evidence of tactical voting for the latter, when actually under the hood a -8% SNP vs +1% Green spoke to direct SNP to Conservative shifting in the North East
comment in response to
post
I'm not sure if this is just additional input or if the suggestion is it contradicts the content of this thread but to be clear, it doesn't.
comment in response to
post
It's a slightly wonky system aye, but I value the independent nature of the platform
You can just set it to a manual renewal and it won't automatically take any more cash off you; a clever further trick is to set your donation as "per year", so it doesn't ask for another e.g. fiver for a while!
comment in response to
post
Addendum: That explains why the Holyrood constituency vote chart on the BBS website looks like this, with very little impact on SNP following Reform's rise but huge damage to Labour. The SNP already lost that support, Labour are losing it afresh. ballotbox.scot/scottish-par...
comment in response to
post
Conclusions?
1. Reform are drawing most of their support from long-standing Pro-Union voters;
2. BUT they are clearly picking up some of the "anti-system" voters that were SNP in 2021;
3. HOWEVER SNP already lost most of those voters in 2024 leaving Labour most vulnerable to further Reform growth
comment in response to
post
If HLS mirrored national distributions (which it won't, but for argument's sake), Reform's 7088 votes would come from (vs SP21 Constituency / vs GE24):
SNP ~ 1296 / 305
Labour ~ 1270 / 2032
Conservative ~ 2922 / 1143
Lib Dem ~ 203 / 432
Reform UK ~ N/A / 2515
Other/Non-Voters ~ 1397 / 661
comment in response to
post
Source of Reform votes (vs SP21 Constituency / vs GE24):
SNP ~ 18.3% / 4.3%
Labour ~ 17.9% / 28.7%
Conservative ~ 41.2% / 16.1%
Lib Dem ~ 2.9% / 6.1%
Reform UK ~ N/A / 35.5%
Others/Non-Voters ~ 19.7% / 9.3%
Near equality between SNP and Labour in 2021 terms, but huge imbalance versus 2024.
comment in response to
post
Correction: Labour are 8559 which is 31.6% (still -2%, rounding innit), which is a reminder that us Central Belters could really do with enunciating better, especially when it's guaranteed impatient party activists won't let us hear the whole number before they cheer, rude
comment in response to
post
Labour constituency vote on a national swing like this: 19.6%
Labour constituency vote in most recent poll: 19%
SNP constituency vote on a national swing like this: 30.9%
SNP constituency vote in most recent poll: 33%
Reform much further off but for top two, result consistent with national polls.
comment in response to
post
A sort of balance of caveats here as well: a 2.1% Labour majority, with 3.6% for Pro-Independence parties who won't stand for the constituency in 2026, which will help the SNP. At the same time, don't expect as high a Reform share outside the white heat of a by-election, which will help Labour.
comment in response to
post
Wash your quote tweet out with soap, sir
comment in response to
post
Yes; funnily enough, it's circa 10%! For example last week's Norstat was 8% Yes to No and 15% No to Yes. I can't recall exact figures or where but there was some academic chat about how in the aftermath of Brexit, some Yes-Leave voters snapped to No-Leave, and some No-Remain to Yes-Remain.
comment in response to
post
Given the profile of this by-election I will again remind everyone that "lean" does not mean "this party WILL win", it means "this party is very slightly favoured to win". Human brains do like to interpret e.g. "eh, call it a 56% chance of winning?" as "well you said they were going to win!"
comment in response to
post
Our politicians, on both sides of the pond, take to social media to scream about "the woke", to demand children are "protected" from "gender ideology". They cast LGBT people - especially but not solely trans people - as some kind of societal threat. This is what happens as a result. Monstrous.
comment in response to
post
Like most political nerds I have, of course, seen all of Parks and Rec and so I'm shocked by the death of the actor I knew as Ken Hotate, but as a gay man I am incandescent with rage to know that people like me are still - still - being murdered in supposed "liberal democracies".
comment in response to
post
More information on goings on in D&G here - it's not quite South Ayrshire in that it doesn't seem to be as personally vitriolic but it's wild times out there: www.itv.com/news/border/...
comment in response to
post
Went out for dinner and two further councillors have chucked it. Of the seven who all departed today, the four Galloway based ones have formed a new grouping called "Novantae" (real throwback there) whilst the other three are the D&G Independent Group. What's in the waters in the south west?