chrisjparker.bsky.social
Senior Analyst @thecccuk.bsky.social - UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. "that uk hydrologist guy who knows about extremes"
Hydrologist and climate scientist. Opinions are my own.
143 posts
3,205 followers
341 following
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New infrastructure should be climate resilient from the Inception. HS2 and Sizewell are reasonable examples for flood risk. There are embedded processes that are starting to address this but they are often superficial and don't go far enough. Certainly more needs to be done.
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evidence suggests it does little to manage large floods in big catchments. We need a combination of engineered and natural solutions thinking holistically at catchment scales. Unfortunately flooding is extremely complex - every catchment and every flood event is different with no simple solutions.
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There is a strict requirement that government funded flood schemes must not increase risks elsewhere. This is generally done by making space for water and providing large storage areas. Yes, natural flood management and upland reforestation is important to provide resilience but
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Natural England produce a Fire Severity Index (FSI) but this needs to be promoted more widely across the media.
FSI models potential fire severity *should they occur*, and rises widely across England to *exceptional* levels by next Monday.
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A pdf of the paper is now available here: cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/...
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So sorry Zack. I really value your excellent and insightful work.
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And shattered the monthly record by 3.7°C!
bsky.app/profile/mika...
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Mika, do you know what the March monthly record is?
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@selmaguerreiro.bsky.social we really need to finish writing that paper on record breaking extremes.
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Thanks Glen. It's indeed not a definition, but a convention following the AR6 and the 2nd Periodic Review Para 5 Dec 21/CP.27
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
"notes that it is assessed over a period of decades"
Which of course also could be >20, i.e. 30 years. We could have been more precise here.
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I appreciate that is a challenging question but the assumption shouldn't be that the models are fine for extremes until we have enough observational evidence, and associated suffering, to the contrary.
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The question should be flipped - Can you provide robust evidence that climate models can accurately simulate and project the magnitude, frequency and overall statistical distribution of present day and near term temperature and hydroclimate extremes?
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And the shift might not be linear. Try fitting GEVs to temperature stations that have experience record shattering extremes. The event is so far beyond the historical it could be considered a completely new distribution. Like the historic data is no longer valid.
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The fact that the NWP 2021, European 2022 and Russia 2012 record breaking heatwaves occurred suggests these types of extremes are more likely than model based estimates would provide. This is the critical point, it is the shifting distribution of extremes that is the primary driver of climate risk.
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I can think of many reasons (models, data methods) why we might be underestimating climate impacts and risks.
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This could result in models underestimating heat extreme for certain regions of the globe (K Kornhuber 2024). Prior to 2022 40°C day in the UK was estimated to be 1:100-300 year (McCarthy 2020) post 2022 it is now estimated to be ~1:25year.
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Which E Fischer paper?
@hayleyjfowler.bsky.social is reasonably convinced that climate models don't simulate the large scale circulation patterns we are seeing. Especially the tropical and mid-latitude connection that drove the NWP 2021 and 2022 European heatwaves.
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This apparent acceleration is also broadly consistent with our climate models, which expect a near-term acceleration in scenarios like SSP2-4.5 where aerosols emissions decline but CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions do not: www.carbonbrief.org/...
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I think we can agree to disagree on this one. I work on adaptation. No one lives in the global average temperature. It is easy to lose sight of that with too much focus on a single number. Impacts are happening at increasing frequency and we are doing very little to address the risks.
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What is the average of the last 10 years?
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Looking at the data I am still not convinced. However, this is largely a technical point. Crossing 1.5°C is inevitable and has been for some time.
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What would a similar period be like in the present day climate that is significantly warmer?
Could this be modelled as an extreme global storyline?
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...