coljac.bsky.social
Data scientist, PoliQ. Astrophysicist, Swinburne University.
#auspol, data, gliding.
18 posts
56 followers
33 following
Regular Contributor
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Is it a binary copy of the original font, or a clone? Because fonts can't be copyrighted. Only the 'software' can - the look and feel is fair game.
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There's also the fact that if the polls are reported honestly, they have significant error, so there should be outliers regularly. For this reason, the polls are always weighted over time, so we'll need a couple more strong polls before we and the model start to "believe" it.
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No, although we have done some MRP, I only trust it with access to lots of polling data (of course with the individual responses). We're going the other route, a Bayesian framework propagating the poll results down to a lower level and back to the seats and parliament (with uncertainties).
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Yeah, I wasnt clear. That image is out projection. The dashed line is 2022.
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Redbridge has the Greens primary in Wills at 25% even accounting for the redistribution. I don't see it either statistically or on the ground. (See for instance www.instagram.com/p/DDNeY4IT1B...)
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Deaking for comparison - Libs looking safe, not ahead as strongly though.
Thanks to @samvaughan.bsky.social for the good work here!
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It's hard to blame Biden. Given the upcoming debauchery of the presidency, why not? What principle would he be upholding that isn't about to be burned and trampled?
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Radio astronomy is rapidly becoming a legitimate science. Keep pushing!