edzitron.com
British, But In Las Vegas and NYC
ezitron.76 Sig
Newsletter - wheresyoured.at
https://linktr.ee/betteroffline - podcast w/ iheartradio
Columnist at Business Insider - https://www.businessinsider.com/author/ed-zitron
CEO at EZPR.com - Award-Winning Tech PR
19,999 posts
154,814 followers
2,665 following
Getting Started
Active Commenter
comment in response to
post
It is a political open goal to go after these companies. They’re unsympathetic, disconnected from humanity, their leaders are charmless and bland pseudo-people with a flimsy attachment to reality and nothing to lose. Run them into the ground - people love technology, but they hate the tech industry.
comment in response to
post
I realised it wasn’t particularly good at explaining what the episode was lol
comment in response to
post
Sounds very difficult and I’m sorry you’re going through it. I’m so curious about the “it’s too expensive” part though
comment in response to
post
I’d have said 2025 last year, it could be 6 months, could be 18 months. There really is nothing after this, so they have big incentives to keep fucking this chicken
comment in response to
post
Stuff
comment in response to
post
Can you be really specific here about what “the micro transistor” of this situation is?
comment in response to
post
Will fluff like this post die
comment in response to
post
With Microsoft they combine the revenue from selling compute on Azure, copilot (incl GitHub copilot), and also selling access to models through Azure.
comment in response to
post
honk on my loaf weirdo
comment in response to
post
Better than coming across as full of shit. Admit you were wrong!
comment in response to
post
“Evolving fast and getting better” how
comment in response to
post
Honestly, no. I have a few gut instincts here, and I think the losses might be more like 4x. I also believe OpenAI’s burn rate could be much higher, same with Anthropic. We also have NO idea how bad the losses are at hyperscalers as they hide opex really well.
comment in response to
post
Yep i already quoted that article to you, and you were specifically talking 2009 and before, so please provide plentiful articles you were discussing? They should be pretty easy to find based on what you said.
comment in response to
post
Just wondering when i can hope to read the “plenty of historical articles” you were talking about here
bsky.app/profile/edwi...
comment in response to
post
You said something very different above?
comment in response to
post
Can you give me anymore detail here
comment in response to
post
I can find one article that says they'll "never make a significant profit" but I believe you are talking your ass here. There were concerns about its ability to grow its mobile revenue leading up to IPO. They turned profitable a year after sandberg joined
comment in response to
post
The way they lost money was by trying to do something really stupid - shipping stuff at a massive loss - but the core idea of eCommerce still made sense. LLMs do not make sense in many of the use cases they're being shoved into even before the onerous costs. Weak argument
comment in response to
post
What is "the sector" here exactly
comment in response to
post
I think they'll be way less discussed and they will end up being as important as they are now, which is to say they're like a $20-25bn industry
comment in response to
post
Yep! It's real bad
comment in response to
post
*I'm am
comment in response to
post
hello they're, i am sean o'kane
comment in response to
post
also what are you considering AI assisted?
comment in response to
post
I've been wondering why nobody wants to touch the economics of AI companies, and I think the reason is because when you actually write down the amounts they're spending and the much smaller amounts they're making it begins to make you feel a little crazy
comment in response to
post
Tech massively overhired in 2021 and 2022, cut a lot in 2023 and 2024, and still needs to cut more because revenue growth is NOT coming from AI. Nevertheless they can conveniently say "oh boy, AI is automating stuff" knowing the tech/biz media won't argue lol
www.techtarget.com/whatis/featu...
comment in response to
post
"They'll keep pushing this as they're replacing workers with AI!" no they're not! That isn't happening. They're laying people off because they sunsetted Section 174 of the tax code that let tech companies immediately deduct 100% of R&D if it "helped improve products."
qz.com/tech-layoffs...
comment in response to
post
i don't have any faith in them i am just looking at the practicalities here
comment in response to
post
Ed Eddington
comment in response to
post
yeah but for that to work it would actually have to be good which it is not
comment in response to
post
Just did an episode on this sorry. What labor is it replacing? By labor I mean "an actual human being" not "a task"
bsky.app/profile/edzi...
comment in response to
post
lol
comment in response to
post
i think we already had that before ChatGPT. Colleges never really put much effort into helping make people better writers or communicators. It was inevitable someone did exactly this
comment in response to
post
yeah there are people who like github copilot
comment in response to
post
Microsoft has $3bn in ARR from AI if you take away the $10bn in "revenue" (discounted!) from OpenAI paying them for compute partly using money that Microsoft gave them. Analyst estimate is that Amazon makes $5bn from AI this year. What a farce.
finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-...
comment in response to
post
i believe we see hyper-consolidation of these startups as they start to run out of money. At some point NVIDIA growth slows, and/or a hyperscaler says they're "reallocating resources away from AI expenses" or something. OpenAI faces financial trouble. Anthropic gets absorbed. Etc etc
comment in response to
post
If Github Copilot - one of the most well-liked and most conspicuous generative AI products, one of the few real *products* - only makes $500m a year, then there really is no massive growth story here. Even if that was profit. Which it isn't. It's horribly unprofitable.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
comment in response to
post
Even if you truly believe that this stuff is amazing and life changing because you are the most credulous person alive, the revenues are absolute dogshit, have always been absolute dogshit, and are only dwarfed by how dogshit they are by how expensive this stuff is to run. A joke of an industry.
comment in response to
post
except that revenue is predominantly from openai's discounted azure spend
comment in response to
post
yep www.wheresyoured.at/rotcombubble/
comment in response to
post
yeah they quoted ARR in the quoted post tho
comment in response to
post
They will ride this grift as long as possible, and it'll be a series of miniature implosions, with a few "acquisitions"
comment in response to
post
Weird that you're doing a quote post of this for some reason instead of asking me
comment in response to
post
That was my intent