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explaintrade.com
Author of Why Politicians Lie About Trade | Trade and Negotiations Explainer. Forever D&D DM. 🇺🇦 Born. 🇦🇺 Raised. 🇨🇭 Based. Media and training: explaintrade.com Consultancy network: auroramacro.com Speaking representation: cwgspeakers.com
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Posts 8 Comments 42

I'm enjoying TACO memes as much as the next guy, but as @pkrugman.bsky.social alludes to here, I'm not wild about the political incentives it's creating for Trump NOT to back down. Trump chickening out on tariffs is funny, but it's also almost always what's best for the global economy.

submitted 16 hours ago • 6 comments

Like Matthew Goodwin I've been doing some modelling and MY projections say that Britain will be majority non-white by 2149. Notes: I define 'white' as "carbonara is your favourite pasta sauce" and adjust for Tyranid Hive Fleet Leviathan stripping planet earth to a lifeless husk in 2137.

submitted 17 hours ago • 21 comments

I would treat geoeconomics by way of TikTok anecdote with a lot of caution. China rolled back retaliatory tariffs - its beef tariffs are close to where they were before. Most likely the reason she's seeing more Aussie beef is that the Australia-China FTA reduced that tariff to 0% last year.

submitted 1 day ago • 6 comments

Another way to look at this is that SBU agents had to spend 18 months doing insanely dangerous Mission Impossible behind enemy lines tradecraft because Western governments won't authorise them using long-range missiles for fear of hurting Vlad's feelings.

submitted 2 days ago • 17 comments

In the same 24 hour period Russia broke its own record by blindly hurling 472 Shahed drones at Ukrainian cities for no tactical purpose beyond terror and pain, and Ukraine executed a carefully planned infiltration strike decimating Russian strategic aviation. Draw your own conclusions.

submitted 2 days ago • 10 comments

Will eat crow and admit I never anticipated Ukraine outperforming them so dramatically in the Russian military's core competency: blowing up Russian aircraft.

submitted 3 days ago • 6 comments

In addition to the personal cosplay CoD fetish of the officers involved - I suspect the actual reason is that Trump promised everyone these deportations would be of violent gangbangers, and gearing up like they're going to war helps sell that illusion when arresting local mums at school drop off.

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments

Why on earth wouldn't they? The tariffs the UK is significantly impacted by, and which the UK-US deal promises to reduce or eliminate were implemented under Section 232 and not the IEEPA. They are not impacted by the recent rulings and the UK needs them gone whatever happens with the court cases.

submitted 5 days ago • 4 comments