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explaintrade.com
Author of Why Politicians Lie About Trade | Trade and Negotiations Explainer. Forever D&D DM. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Born. πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί Raised. πŸ‡¨πŸ‡­ Based. Media and training: explaintrade.com Consultancy network: auroramacro.com Speaking representation: cwgspeakers.com
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TikTACO.

We live in the dumbest timeline.

Tragically, and unless the courts take urgent action, I fear there may be a significant delay before Elon Musk can officially join Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

David Sacks sitting halfway between Trump and Elon like a confused puppy in a custody battle, except neither is beckoning him all that hard.

Pop quiz! Is this the market saying it thinks: a) Tesla's value was significantly reliant on Elon skimming governments contracts by being Trump's bestie? b) The Trump administration will use the machinery of government to enact personal vengeance? c) Both? Whatever the market says, I say "lmao".

Thinking about this, for no reason whatsoever.

Simone Biles and I spoke at the same conference last week, and I just hope she finds the strength not to brag about that on LinkedIn.

I'm enjoying TACO memes as much as the next guy, but as @pkrugman.bsky.social alludes to here, I'm not wild about the political incentives it's creating for Trump NOT to back down. Trump chickening out on tariffs is funny, but it's also almost always what's best for the global economy.

Like Matthew Goodwin I've been doing some modelling and MY projections say that Britain will be majority non-white by 2149. Notes: I define 'white' as "carbonara is your favourite pasta sauce" and adjust for Tyranid Hive Fleet Leviathan stripping planet earth to a lifeless husk in 2137.

I would treat geoeconomics by way of TikTok anecdote with a lot of caution. China rolled back retaliatory tariffs - its beef tariffs are close to where they were before. Most likely the reason she's seeing more Aussie beef is that the Australia-China FTA reduced that tariff to 0% last year.

Another way to look at this is that SBU agents had to spend 18 months doing insanely dangerous Mission Impossible behind enemy lines tradecraft because Western governments won't authorise them using long-range missiles for fear of hurting Vlad's feelings.

In the same 24 hour period Russia broke its own record by blindly hurling 472 Shahed drones at Ukrainian cities for no tactical purpose beyond terror and pain, and Ukraine executed a carefully planned infiltration strike decimating Russian strategic aviation. Draw your own conclusions.

Will eat crow and admit I never anticipated Ukraine outperforming them so dramatically in the Russian military's core competency: blowing up Russian aircraft.