gwickenden.bsky.social
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That's before you look at the impact of reducing immigration on the ratio between working aged population and those of pension age:
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
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Indeed, and even 1 of the regions in the north do better than the southeast!
Of course the other thing to note is this is infrastructure spending, so doesn't include other transport spending (like support for railways)
Although, I do agree that there's should be more spending across the UK
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Nationally, the cost to provide all the buses for free in the country works out at about £300 per tax payer (to include trains as well it's about £1,000) - note that's not extra as there's already subsidy being paid to provide public transport
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The mad statistic is that nationality if every home which pays council tax paid £500 per year that would likely be enough funding for all buses to be free for everyone (to put that in perspective the average cost of car ownership is £3,600 per year, so most could be better off)
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The first chart isn't that surprising given that the average cost of car ownership is £3,600 per year (requires extra income of £5,000 for basic rate tax payer)
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Predicted total UK population growth from 2022 to 2042 is expected to 4.6 million
Predicted >65 population growth for the same time period 4.7 million
Ratios between working age & >65 are falling (2008 it was 3.2 to 1, by 2050 it's due to be 2.0 to 1)
Without immigration it'll be worse
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15% of £42,500 (to allow for general inflation from £4,000 in 1973) would be £6,375
That same home would be worth £165,000 (using national home price inflation) so to pay the same value of interest the rate would be 3.9% (there are currently no interest rates available at less than 4%)
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20% interest on £54,000 home (allowing for inflation) is £10,800
2% interest on a £540,000 home is also £10,800
Just because the interest rate is higher doesn't mean that you are necessary paying more if the overall value has increased
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Thing is, 20% (don't think they ever got that high) of £220,000 (if house prices had matched wage increase) is £44,000, to be paying the same amount in interest for a £2 million home interest rates would have to be 2.2%
It's why comparing the percentage when the value has changed is problematic
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One thing to be aware of, initially traffic volumes will reduce, however over time they will return to where they are currently
However, don't let people confuse this with traffic levels being worse than without the charges as there would have been traffic growth anyway
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It depends, whilst population estimates have the UK population growing (2022 to 2043) by 4.6 million people, however the overall 65 population is due to grow by 4.7 million people
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In 2008 there were 3.2 people of working age for each person over 65, this has already fallen to 2.4 and by 2050 is expected to reach 1.7
Without any immigration the fall in the ratio between working aged and over 65's would be far faster
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Of course, if you (Larry) got him you'd deal with Feathers swiftly and finally, by doing what you did to most of those Christmas gifts from your true love and your Christmas Eve breakfast (of a mouse) - eating him
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Part of the issue is people not understanding some of the numbers
HS2 was based on the assumption of 2.5% growth year on year, but due to growth in the early years of over 4% by 2019 instead of having 131 passengers for every 100 in 2009 there were 171, the expected numbers for 2033
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Even when looking at the years where net migration when it increased the population over 50 years would have only needed 3.5 million more homes
As such, whilst migration is a factor in needing more homes it's not even the largest factor
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Why's that relevant?
Well, as people age, they live in smaller household sizes, between 1970 and 2020 the average household size shrunk by enough that even with a static population there would have been a need for 8 million more homes
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UK population up 13% over the last 20 years, however the working population (18-64) has risen by only 10%, the extra growth isn't from children (0-18 is up about 6%), rather those over 65 where it has risen by 35%
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TfL have some food guidance on this (and the provision of shelters):
content.tfl.gov.uk/the-planning...
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Just look at the tube to see how willing people are to change if the frequency is high, then compare that to services with an hourly frequency where connections are poorly timed (even if they aren't, a small delay can result in a much longer journey)
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Even a near empty bus with just 8 people on board will typically remove 5 cars from the road but only take up the space of 2 cars
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Population and geographic spread could both be a factor
Cornwall is the right population but runs the risk of officers not knowing all the areas
Also try merging smaller ones & it'll cause issues; Rushmore - does it go with Basingstoke or across 3 counties so it's urban area is 1 authority (not 6)
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Investment in public transport benefits everyone, even those who remain using their cars (as there are fewer vehicles on the road)
One of the barriers to people using public transport is the infrequent nature of the service (see how people are willing to change in the tube) making journeys too long
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For example linking a cycle route to a quiet residential street could create a route when currently the gap acts as a barrier, likewise better crossing provision (looking to see the potential user not only recording what is there, as people may find the provision unsafe so drive)
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A policy to aim for:
Streets for 6 year olds (access to public open space)
Neighbourhoods for 9 year olds (access to local schools)
Towns for 12 year olds (able to go anywhere)
Would not only benefit them but the whole of society
As would dealing with gaps in active travel provision
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It's not even just that though, step out into a road 9m from a car don't 30 and the driver would have only just got round to reacting, do the same with a car doing 20 and the driver had not only rejected but has got halfway through their breaking distance
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Also better links to Southern England (Reading, Basingstoke, Southampton) as via HS2 would likely (using existing journey options) be comparable via HS2 as via XC between Birmingham and Southampton, so reducing journey times being Birmingham sports up those journeys too
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The HS2 half length trains are due to have 550 seats
Whilst until recently 3/5 of the current trains have 589 seats 2/5 have 489 seats
Assuming an equal spread the average would be 549 seats
It's only been since 2022 that the trains had up to 607 seats (but for much of that time a reduced timetable)
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The other thing it does is speed up journeys currently being done by XC, as Southampton to Birmingham via Old Oak Common (using existing services) would be broadly comparable via HS2, so that journey time savings would also apply to passengers making trips from the South to those places
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Many stop the Christmas story at the arrival of the Wise Men, the next event involved a young family fleeing a tyrant out to kill their son and not able to return home for many years
Not a particularly happy thing to think about - however something to remember at this time of year
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There should come a point when cars become too expensive for the number of miles travelled, as the average cost of car ownership is over £3,600 per year, the issue is that too many only consider the fuel costs and not the total costs
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Indeed, the other thing to consider is that our busiest railway station deals with over 250,000 people a day, it probably deals with about 40,000 people between 11am and 2pm
People see large numbers and are scared, a lot of the time they just need to understand the scale
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The number of seats on trains leaving London on the full HS2 network each day would have been over 1/4 a million
Over a year it would have been over 80 million seats (or enough for everyone in the UK to go from London to somewhere else & back once a year)
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A single HS2 train has the capacity to carry 1,100 people, the existing London Manchester trains average about half that
However due to reduced journey times the number of coaches need to run the longer length trains is about the same as the current length trains
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The cost of car ownership depends on how much you use it, if you only use it to do that trip it'll cost you a lot more than £600 to do it by car
Few believe that the average cost of car ownership is £3,600 per year as the costs are spent in small amounts, without realising just how much it totals
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The issue is to explain the amount of capacity that is created takes too long for most people to listen and doesn't fit into the sound bites that are repeated by that oppose new public transport (see how many road schemes were funded by cutting HS2)
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Then of course many local trains are shorter then 6 coaches, so they can be lengthened to 6 coaches & 2 can share a platform, so that's 6 local services which are longer then they were
Only they had already been taking up space which can also be used to make other services longer
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HS2, by building new platforms would allow longer local train services in places like Manchester
King distance trains need more platform time to turn around, so 2tph per platform rather than 3tph for local services
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Not only that but you don't need to be delayed by much before you start getting money back, unlike in a car when delays use up fuel which costs money
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For now details see my written evidence to Transport Select Committee on active travel:
data.parliament.uk/writtenevide...
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Have joined up government policy, for example how can guidance suggest 2km walking distances for adults but require children as young as 8 to walk about 5km (3 miles) before they are given school transport on routes which are not assessed as being safe for use by children
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Also government should respond to the request to look at the policy for bus provision for school children which had been an action since 2009, as the 3 mile walking distance doesn't tally with what they expect adults to do (which is less than half that)
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Road design should be on the principle of:
Streets for 6 year olds (able to access local public open space)
Neighbourhoods for 9 year olds (able to get to school)
Towns for 12 year olds (able to go anywhere)
Enable children to walk/cycle places & going by car isn't their default option as an adult
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Worryingly, because of the boom in dog ownership there's now around 1 dog for every five people in the UK
It's also worth noting that the CO2 emissions from owning a dog are very high, so adding extra for owning an oversized car is on trend!
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Indeed, for example the average cost of car ownership is £3,600 or about £10 a day, it would be unlikely that many could get this much below £5 a day (unless they are doing very few miles &/or doing all their own maintenance)
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For example, whilst the UK has 144 million EU air passengers, few of those going between Scotland and Spain would consider anything other than flying due to the time taken, similarly Paris Warsaw (20 hours by rail)
If flights of those lengths were to be banned, the numbers travelling would reduce
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I suspect that there's also a difference in timelines
For example the EU is unlikely to ban all flights overnight (probably starting with the French model, say, 6 hours by rail), as such it'll take time before all flights would be impacted, giving us (say) 25 years to provide all the capacity
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Whilst TGV does extend into other nations, in 2008 the number of passengers (excluding international passengers) was 98 million (with international passengers it was 144 million)