isentrope.bsky.social
He/him/his | politics, news and memes mostly
136 posts
96 followers
156 following
Discussion Master
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Given the LUC that candidates get can be like 1/3 the cost of a superPAC, $15M probably doesn't stretch too far considering all the other candidates are just running anti-Cuomo ads right now.
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There is probably a good deal of self-selection going on, with liberals/left wingers paying more attention to this compared to conservatives who only see headlines from Fox calling it a warzone or something.
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The protest counties would’ve been disproportionately blue and the difference in D vote share that the authors claim was BLM-related was only 1.2-1.8 points, way too small to reliably exclude other factors.
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The numbers he's citing seem to be seasonally adjusted already too.
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But with that emergency appeals panel in the DC Circuit this month...
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But these are multiparty democracies where new parties spring into existence and can rail against the “establishment”. There’s a premium on the party brand that wouldn’t exist in the U.S. context.
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Figuring this out must've given you some bad flashbacks to LSAT logic games haha
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Wasn't that the argument they relied on heavily in the NC redistricting cases too?
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I thought they stated there was but it was non-justiciable? I remember a case before Gil v. Whitford/Rucho v. Common Cause where even Scalia concedes that it's unconstitutional.
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Seems like the thinking for firms that signed deals was that their clients were mostly transactional-heavy and would be agnostic to this move, and also that they'd get their peer firms to sign deals together. Both of those assumptions seemed to have fallen through.
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It's not about whether you feel bad about this, it's getting everyone else to see you show your ass right now about this.
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Try what? You aren't making any sense trying to justify this vile attack.
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Huh? Where did you say any of that and who is "they"?
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Which of the victims of this terror attack is a Nazi? Was it the Holocaust survivor? How about the children? How are they even remotely related to Israel other than being Jewish?
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It's incredible how you've managed to use left-coded rhetoric to argue for a deeply regressive idea.
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This makes absolutely no sense to anyone with even an iota of understanding of how Congress works, which you presumably should as someone running for Congress.
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Yeah a large part of it was basically this. The writing should've been on the wall when the LDP in Japan lost its majority coalition and the ANC was reduced to a minority in ZA for the first time since the end of Apartheid.
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All outperform "some" STEM counterparts seems to be doing a lot of work there.
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She likely has already made up her mind and it's up to the person she supports to choose when to release the endorsement.
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This will likely get Byrd bathed in the Senate so with enough pressure, the Rs will be less inclined to invoke the nuclear option of overruling the parliamentarian to pass it.
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What does Hogg do to help the DNC exactly? The DNC isn't the DTrip or DSCC, it's mostly there to raise money for the convention, do message testing/polling (that candidates are free to ignore), and to provide additional money to the aforementioned committees.
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It singlehandedly brought back adding a tiny bit of milk or cream to bolognese sauce.
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Once that norm is broken, do you suppose Hogg's $30M will hold a candle to the incumbent donor class's money if they chose to help fund an organization a different vice chair or even the chair himself sets up to interfere with or counter Hogg's spend?
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Anti-SSM activists literally ran Barack Obama's voice clip opposing SSM in radio ads to get California to successfully vote down gay marriage in 2008. This snippet of the 2008 party platform isn't that far off from Trump term 1 on immigration either:
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It's something about how the people here are so smugly and confidently incorrect that gets me sometimes. It's still nicer than Twitter but that's a low bar when it's still hard to have good political conversations.
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Again, what is this referring to? The DNC doesn't have local chapters (the state parties are distinct as we saw in IA 2020) and is organizationally separate from the DSCC and DCCC that actually do get involved in primaries. I shared the FEC link for their spending, where is the candidate money?
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SCOTUS has affirmed Purcell as far back as 145 days from a primary election and the state legislature will probably have to be given a shot or two at drawing a map before SC WI draws one, assuming the litigation is successful.
www.democracydocket.com/analysis/the...
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What's the timing on the WI case looking like? Would Crawford have to recuse since she doesn't take office until July? And since SCOTUS has invoked Purcell on something like 6 months before a GE, do you need to get the maps in place before April if you prevail?
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Nothing is stopping incumbents from being challenged, the issue is that Hogg wants to remain as vice chair of an organization that's not supposed to take sides in congressional primaries.
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Cool, so how does Hogg remaining a vice chair throw a wrench into this arrangement? The DNC isn't preventing him from using his organization to primary MoCs, they just don't want him to be a vice chair if he's doing that.
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This isn't really a message for a midterm. Voters know you don't control the levers of power - they're looking primarily for someone who acts as a check on what they perceive to be outrageous conduct by the incumbent party.
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The DNC's spending is public on the FEC website. Where are they directly funding rich people in congressional Democratic primaries? This is the page for the analogous 2021-22 cycle:
www.fec.gov/data/committ...
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He has no business being vice chair if he’s comparing what the DSCC/DCCC/DLGA do with what the DNC does.
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That would be more persuasive if the DNC were stopping him (somehow) from running primary challenges through his organization at all. They’re just saying he needs to step down as vice chair to do it.
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Hogg can primary old Democrats through his organization without being vice chair, DNC leadership isn’t supposed to get this involved in congressional primaries.
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Not even the defense is making that argument in this suppression motion, it's about the legality of searching the backpack which turns on how far away it was from Mangione when he was searched and whether he was handcuffed.
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Again, you don’t need a warrant to seize a backpack incident to an arrest backed up by probable cause. If you’re asserting they planted evidence on him, that’s a separate issue but I don’t understand how a warrant would’ve prevented the police from doing that?
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Police were able to search his backpack without a warrant as long as it was on his person and they could articulate probable cause for his arrest.
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The thing about rural voters is that Trump will probably get a subsidy passed by years-end to make them whole again in the NDAA. Last time he started a trade war, he said China paid for subsidy relief.
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A lot fewer polls this time but this is what RCP has for the current cycle
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How is she doing the averages at 100 days? This is what it looked like in 2018 and I don't think a simple average yields a GCB of under 4:
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Biden didn't nominate his first judge until April 19, 2021 though IDK if it was because they needed to figure out power sharing in the judiciary committee
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
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When this first came out, people speculated that the idea was to force suppliers to recoup their losses by raising prices on smaller chains by using Albertsons' buying power as leverage. Realistically, if it's 10%, a lot of suppliers may just be able to eat it until they renegotiate.
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Duck boots were popular for a hot second and it was a horrible trend.
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Suggests an employer's market then?
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The state is too rural and has the second lowest college attainment. As a result, the white vote breaks like 85/10 R like most rural white voters do in the South.
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The worst case was Sylvester Turner since that was the second death in the same seat in the span of just 6 months.
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Meanwhile you have Democrats like Nydia Velasquez who have been the top Democrat for the small business committee for 26 years and people like Maxine Waters who has been chair or ranking member of the influential HFSC since 2013. None of these people would stick around if they didn't have a gavel.
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The way to get them to retire is to impose a 3 consecutive term limit on being the top Democrat in a committee like the Republicans. The biggest reason why Republicans have more turnover than Democrats is that dinosaurs retire once they go back to the backbench.
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TBH I don't think I've ever seen a law review article title that wasn't dull.