jamiebarks101.bsky.social
59 posts
7 followers
6 following
Discussion Master
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Would it be effective for the Ukrainians to move their machine guns forward?
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Ha, well I am about to start your second novel, and I'm sure it'll be as fun to read as the first ,)
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Ya that was indeed what I was wondering. Crazy thought
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Crazy thought: Do you think it might even be possible that Putin got played, by Trump? The US certainly now has every justification to help Ukraine see this out
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Does he have the political support at home to be confident/effective in his diplomacy? It was a sketchy start this week!
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I think the only way to stop Farage is for the mainstream parties, journalists and commentators to address what is making the voters so angry
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Crushing a political party can only be done through the ballot box, or self implosion like the Scottish Independents, anything else will create serious, irreversible schism, we have to trust the process. Germany and UK need to address their voters’ problems not tear down political parties
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I read this excellent article later on the day that Ukraine signed the 'mineral deal' with the US. But now I wonder, does this deal in anyway change your analysis? It does seem to favor Ukraine well enough, maybe surprisingly?
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Sabotage makes less sense, when Spain and Portugal are among the least materially supportive to Ukraine, why annoy them? What's to gain?
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Oh dear, fallen off orbit too or just tumbling ‘in place’? Any risk to other satellites? Ie. Kessler syndrome?
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If only!
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Crimea is the very LAST territory Ukraine should ever give up
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Absolute idiots! Leaving the door wide wide open for Russia and China to dominate the entire continent. Is it stupidity, or treachery?
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My God this is a shocking conclusion. No doubt you are right, but wouldn't this outcome be totally satisfying for the enemies of the West? The transition period would make Europe extremely vulnerable...and to get through it, EU+ would need to make fast and aggressive decisions, not EU's usual MO!
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Enjoy your time off. I shall be enjoying watching motorcycle racing in the warm SoCal sunshine, and thinking about how to save the World somehow. Slava Ukraine!
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I agree, i think the courts have to be very very sure to sanction a political leader in an open democracy, deserved or not...it is guaranteed trouble. One only has to see what repeated efforts to prosecute Trump has achieved
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Don't worry, those of us that follow you know what you mean ,)
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Well, there are some upsides...
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I wouldn't be surprised if this works in Russia's favor, cos the US administration have no clue what the 'root causes' are, and if they try to guess, Ukraine will be f****d
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I do wonder if Russia has done this same calculation and decides to 'accept' the ceasefire, thereby looking good enough to satisfy/bamboozle 47 and simultaneously undermine the Ukrainian game...and then find a pretext to break the ceasefire. Probably after rearming and repositioning. Simple out?
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I’m not sure this is the cause of the problem, there is literally no dirt that anyone could smear on Trump that would change his supporters’ minds about him, we have seen everything and heard everything and still they love him
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It would be interesting to see if a single member of this sick administration has the courage or morals to resign over this. I won’t be holding my breath mind you
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We are so poorly placed for this moment, the EU couldn’t organize a sandwich in a bread shop, the UK is not what she used to be, and the rest of the world is squeezed between china or tariffs. How the living hell are we going to manage ourselves? Russia must be pissing themselves with laughter
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My blood is boiling! Even here in California I am surrounded by his voters who almost certainly think he’s doing the right thing, this is what they voted for after all. Poor old Ukrainians must be despairing
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Oof it feels like Ukraine has everything to fear right now...we all do. I for one appreciate your positivity in your posts, but my heart is in my guts and my guts are in my shoes right now. What an effing mess
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I'm surprised Poland is declining, I thought they were well up for a fight
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But I don’t see why Britain can’t lead now, the EU is not a defense organization by any means (thank God cos they would be basically useless) and will never be. NATO is truly multinational and proof that disparate nations can organize a decent defense structure independent of trade blocks
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This is so so depressing, there is nothing left to believe in anymore, we are fumphed
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I completely agree, that bridge needs to drop immediately to change the picture drastically
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Having lived through US elections of the last few years, we must stop talking about the extremist right as if they are the problem in isolation...liberalism & reasonableness have run out of things to say, we make no cogent argument anymore...now we simply resort to fury & insults at the 'fascists'
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What a waste on money, yet another insult to the hard-pressed Iranian people
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Along with some of their juicy new equipment
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Yikes, imagine if that thing had arrived on target??
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Analyst, do you have any idea why HTS continues to allow Russia access to these two bases in Syria? Are they waiting for someone to make a better offer? Or is some external actor pressuring the Syrians? Turkey perhaps?
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I’m in the construction industry in California…we only just recently got over the last crippling supply shortages, crazy labor shortages, wild cost-of-construction inflation. This is sickening, pointless
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We should organize a sweepstake!
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That all seems a little optimistic to me, but we live in hope, what a show it will be when it happens
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They must be bloody desperate eh? Or maybe they expect a Russian collapse and they want to be there first to klepto all the goodies, just like how the local mafia became oligarchs at the collapse of CCCP?
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Great news, one more Russian finger broken off at the knuckle
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I don't fully understand what China gets out of this, backing a horse who's legs are falling off in front of their eyes...unless Russia has more to play? Unless Russia is not actually on the verge of economic or military collapse?
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Worth noting I have one of your novels to read on the plane ,)
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About to board a flight home from the Philippines, hoping today is the day Russia decides to behave…
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To help me understand, can I turn your question around? How would things be if Ukraine DIDN’T have these aircraft?
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Personally I really don’t see any possibility of a counterattack into Crimea, or a counterattack by UA of anywhere really, but I do see a scenario where UA can cut off all logistics routes into and out of Crimea, dismantle all the bridges etc, and smoke the filthy invaders out. Kinda like Kherson…?
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Yesss! It’s like plucking the bad guys fingers off the ledge one by one…
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Thank you Analyst. Thinking aloud, if the bridge was down permanently that puts much more pressure on the ferries and new train lines through Zapo, leaving UA to pressurize those vulnerable systems more and more? Suffocate the Russians out of Crimea? I feel like Crimea is the key to all of this no?
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…Is it simply too well defended? Or maybe it have the Americans told them not to?
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I have a question, if you don’t mind. Related, in the sense of humiliating Putin and using this moment of advantage to really really hurt Russia: why is the Kurch Bridge still standing? It seems like such a low-hanging fruit that could do massive strategic damage to Putin’s entire plan and goals…
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Meaning that negotiations about land and demilitarized zones is really slightly off point, the west need to make sure that Ukraine’s political and security sovereignty is maintained intact, more importantly than securing territory or borders…thoughts on that
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Did you see Anders Puck’s video on this topic last week? He makes the very interesting point that ultimately, Russia isn’t after the land or the resources, but is after political control and an overall weakening of the Ukrainian state?