jasonfurman.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

A lot of our instincts about oil prices are based in the distant past. The US economy has more than tripled in size since the 1970s but oil consumption has basically been flat. And we're now a net exporter of oil.

submitted 20 hours ago • 1 comment

Not top of mind today, but it's the 250th anniversary of American money. My latest @nytopinion.nytimes.com tells the story that started in Massachusetts, was almost thwarted by NYers & went through many transformations over 250 years--but still remains vulnerable. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/o...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

And in big inflation news, the CPI-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure was exactly 2.0% in May, consistent with the Fed's target. This is the first time it has been there since I started this concept during the inflationary episode.

submitted 12 days ago • 4 comments

A boring jobs report, in a good way. 139K jobs added (140K private). Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%. Hours unchanged. Only notable deviations from steady state were participation down and unusual wage growth up.

submitted 18 days ago • 2 comments

Make China great again. Or the downside of not thinking even one step ahead in a trade war. www.wsj.com/business/aut...

submitted 20 days ago • 1 comment

I'm having a hard time getting worked up about the dollar decline given: 1. It remains very strong 2. Much of the fall is reversing the earlier run-up 3. We've seen this type of move many times before (To be clear, some financial correlations & risk spreads are a bit worrying.)

submitted 24 days ago • 1 comment

Serious question: if you believe there was >25% chance that Dario Amodei was right about AI eliminating tens of millions of jobs over the next 1-5 years including half of all entry-level white collar jobs. What would government do now? What would it do if this really happened?

submitted 24 days ago • 17 comments

Agastya Sridharan finished Ec10 earlier this morning. He is going into his Sophomore year. And he shares what the Harvard foreign student ban would mean to him in US News Opinion. www.usnews.com/opinion/arti...

submitted 25 days ago • 1 comment

Second month in a row of very moderate core PCE inflation. At an annual rate: 1 month: 1.4% 3 months: 2.7% 6 months: 2.6% 12 months: 2.5% Still only a little tariff in these data.

submitted 25 days ago • 2 comments

"During my sophomore year at Harvard, I lived with two of my closest friends, a Canadian and a South African. Through them and many other international friends, I encountered new ideas, fresh perspectives — and simply had fun"

submitted 31 days ago • 1 comment

Good op-ed from @jasonfurman.bsky.social - his experience mirrors that of every person who's attended a big global university, including, I'd wager, that of many in the current US administration.

submitted 32 days ago • 1 comment

Trump’s Attack on Harvard Won’t Make America Great Again @financialtimes.com @jasonfurman.bsky.social 👏 Banning foreign students from US universities will hurt the economy and slow innovation ☑️ The writer is a professor at Harvard and former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers

submitted 32 days ago • 1 comment

I get personal about the Trump administration's latest visa moves in FT Opinion.

submitted 32 days ago • 2 comments

Trump’s attack on Harvard won’t make America great again- a personal FT oped from @jasonfurman.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/da83...

submitted 32 days ago • 1 comment

I just finished meeting with one of our amazing international students who is graduating and was reflecting on their experience here. And then open this. What a horrible, horrendous thing to do—I hope it can be stopped quickly.

submitted 32 days ago • 8 comments

Tax Deform is right.

submitted 33 days ago • 0 comments

Adding $0 trillion to current law debt still means unsustainable debt rising as a share of GDP. Adding $3 trillion to it, as the House bill as passed would do, means it rises even more. But look at this @BudgetHawks picture and ask if you believe this will only be $3T.

submitted 33 days ago • 2 comments

I'm not sure I've ever seen such a brutal looking distributional analysis from CBO. This contrasts the Medicaid and SNAP cuts for the lowest decile with the tax cuts for the top decile. www.cbo.gov/system/files...

submitted 34 days ago • 6 comments

My thoughts on the tax deform underway in the House. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/20/o...

submitted 34 days ago • 7 comments

The latest effort at tax reform, writes Jason Furman, “which I can think of only as tax deform, is a tremendously expensive effort to make the tax code less efficient, less fair and more complicated.”

submitted 35 days ago • 2 comments

My latest @nytopinion.nytimes.com evaluates the House tax plan & finds it wanting. In addition to issues w/ revenue, growth & simplicity there is distribution: it gives more to the 1m households making >$1m than it does to the 127m households making <$100K. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/20/o...

submitted 35 days ago • 5 comments

Trump’s First 100 Days. 5 Debaters. 3 Questions. @opentodebate.bsky.social 👍 1. Can Tariffs Be Part of Winning US Strategy? 2. Is Deregulation Good for Growth? 3. Could President's "Medicine" Mean Recession? @jasonfurman.bsky.social Allison Schrager Stephen Moore Mariana Mazzucato Jeff Ferry

submitted 42 days ago • 0 comments

🌎 ICYMI: Economic shifts in the US and global relations: A fireside chat with Jason Furman Rewatch the conversation with @jasonfurman.bsky.social & @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social on the shifts in the US economy with their global and local effects. #EconSky 🔗Link:

submitted 35 days ago • 0 comments

A great conversation abt the recent 🇺🇸 trade moves with former @wto.org DG Pascal Lamy @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social Henry Gao @sciencespo.bsky.social Thierry Mayer Moderated by yours truly 👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh17...

submitted 35 days ago • 0 comments

The one thing that is clear about the US-UK trade deal is that the gains to both the US & UK from the UK's increase in market access are much smaller than the US & UK losses from the large increase in U.S. tarrifs relative to 1/19/2021. Plus other agreements likely harder.

submitted 46 days ago • 2 comments

Productivity growth for Q1 came out: -0.8% at an annual rate. Don't think of that as technological regress but as the residual to what was either a large temporary demand shift or demand mismeasurement. Overall productivity is just where CBO expected it to be be pre-pandemic.

submitted 47 days ago • 1 comment

I think this quote from @jasonfurman.bsky.social does a good job of explaining why the Fed will remain on hold for at least a few months: “The best thing for the Fed over the next few months is to be behind the curve, because the alternative is to risk being ahead of the wrong curve”

submitted 48 days ago • 11 comments