jjhelin.bsky.social
Journalist, Fact checker @ http://HS.fi
Ukraine War Analysis with Black Bird Group
Political History at the University of Helsinki
📞 +358413106215
✉️ [email protected]
36 posts
6,273 followers
184 following
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Klo 17 alkaen faktantarkistajat kokoontuivat läpivalaisemaan faktantarkistuksen tilaa Suomessa. Puhujina Faktabaarin @mikkovsalo.bsky.social, @pipsahavula.bsky.social ja @joonasporsti.bsky.social sekä @afpfactcheck.bsky.social Anna Hollingsworth ja Black Bird Groupin @jjhelin.bsky.social. 3/5
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I'll try to do better with cross-posting in the future. Might still re-post the thread just for future-proofing.
I'm currently working on a writeup about the goals of the Kursk operation and what it achieved, and if it managed to fulfil any of it's goals.
I'll remember to post that here as well.
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I was meant to post it here too but creating the graphics and writing the text on Substack took 12 hours and now I have forgot.
I must rectify this tomorrow.
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Infantry can likely make it accross but heavy equipment is going to have a worse time.
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This is in reference to the Ukrainian forces in Kazachya Loknaya and those on the eastern outskirts of Sudzha.
Those forces are separated from Sudzha and Ukraine by the Loknaya and Psel rivers.
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Oh, is that why it's called a curfew?
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"The official said all US military equipment not currently in Ukraine would be paused, including weapons in transit on aircraft and ships or waiting in transit areas in Poland."
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You know what they say:
"Barely functional is still functional".
It incidentally seems to be both my and the Trump administration's motto for 2025.
Only one of us seems to be succeeding.
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And if I never stop I'll never have a hangover
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There's a reason I turned to drinking on friday.
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Basically a zoom call.
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Arab News also made a conscious choice here.
www.arabnews.com/node/2587806...
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Despite posting less, we here at @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social continue to monitor the Russian invasion of Ukraine daily.
We also want to thank Antti & Jenny Wihurin Rahasto for their generous grant makes our lives much easier.
12/12
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Ukraine once again finds itself in the threat of encirclement in salients that have been emerging for weeks.
In the past Ukraine has been lucky, catastrophes have been averted.
But one should not continuously rely on luck.
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However, should Russia advance enough to force a withdrawal from these salients, the prevailing December weather and Russian drone-observation makes the evacuation of remaining heavy equipment over wet fields a daunting task
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The threat to the main logistical routes in both Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka is going to be a challenge to Ukrainians.
Light troops can be supplied by drones, and infantry can withdraw over the fields, although it's dangerous.
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This effectively cuts the town of Velyka Novosilka off from the villages of Vremivka and Neskuchne, and the rest of the Ukrainian-controlled territories.
The town will need to be supplied by makeshift means over the river.
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The Russians cut the northern supply road at the village of Novyi Komar and are closing in on the last remaining road into the city west of Vremivka.
They have also recently struck the bridges over the Mokri Yaly River.
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To the southwest of Kurakhove, another pocket is forming around Velyka Novosilka.
Here the Russians have advanced to the west of the Mokri Yaly River, and east of the town, closing in on its supply routes.
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Ukrainian channels are already talking about Russian drone strikes and the ever-elusive "fire control" over the main road.
Whatever the case, The Ukrainian forces in the Kurakhove salient are now in clear danger of encirclement.
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The salient is boxed in by the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly rivers with only one major route and one bridge leading to Kurakhove.
Russians are closing in on this road both from the north and the south near Ulakly and Dachne respectively.
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The most difficult situation has emerged around the Kurakhove salient. Russians are advancing both on the northern and southern flanks.
The Ukrainian situation here is especially dangerous because of the limited logistical routes.
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General situation:
Although the Russian pace of advance slowed in December they've continued their advance in southern Donetsk.
Pictured in darker red is the situation at the beginning of December, light red is Russian advances.
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Clarification; this 40k number has NOT come from the French government. It came from analysis by a think tank. bsky.app/profile/shas...