joegodwin.bsky.social
Applied Economist, and Iraq vet (ROTM) in Birmingham, AL. Go Blazers!
86 posts
274 followers
783 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
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I wonder how much of the white collar job market weakness is just cyclical weakness vs “AI” driven structural changes.
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My wife used ChatGPT to make
coloring sheets combing photo’s of our kids and their favorite characters. It did a pretty good job and creating something they really enjoyed coloring.
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On a road trip in college, we ended up going almost all the way to Cleveland instead of Indianapolis because it was nighttime, and we missed the exit.
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That’s fair. In AL Auburn has definitely benefited from GA’s overflow and the 2nd tier schools in the state seem to be doing ok. But, enrollment does seem to be peaking.
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Hasn’t that been the trend in the South for awhile? Flagship Universities booming (SEC, ACC) while lower tier schools stagnate. Maybe the elite schools are wanting in on the action.
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One of the problems with reconciling Biden’s legacy is he ran as a moderate but governed as a progressive. Plus, the age issue makes it easier to overlook the policy failures.
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I’ve enjoyed Newsom’s podcast. Not sure if he is right to be President, but he seems to be trying to find a voice/line.
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Not ideal, but a lot better than a rump state centered around Lviv that seemed like the “best” outcome when the invasion started.
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We decided to shoot ourselves in the gut, instead of shooting ourselves in the head.
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It wasn’t an unreasonable thought, look at Mnuchin from the first term. Trump just seems hellbent on tariff.
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I listened to him on Bloomberg radio this morning, he seems completely disconnected from actual events.
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10-year seems to be holding that 4 handle. Crisis the market, and they don’t even get to save on interest payments.
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So weaker dollar.
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The FB crowd is cheering for this. People have become too accustomed to once-in-a-lifetime crises working out.
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WSJ-type Republicans seem very up for grabs in 2026, and my guess is they are one of the GOP’s better “will actually show up for the midterm” constituencies. This could get ugly for them.
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Factory jobs are honest work. Moving to factory jobs aren’t so much the problem it’s moving down the value chain and working in factory jobs that that couldn’t exist here before because US labor was to productive/ expensive on average to allow it to exist.
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WSJ Republicans are up for grab in 2026.
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I wonder if right-wingers really buying into the idea that AI is going to kill knowledge jobs is part of the reason.
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Dems need to become the anti-tariff, this stuff isn’t going to cut it.
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The tariffs are so badly thought out and supported it almost feels like they are designed so Trump can touch the hot stove and learn for himself. Might be wishful thinking but it might imply a higher strike price on the put option.
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Hopefully the neo-Brandeis move over to MAGA.
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Plus, Trump has been on the political stage for a long time now. The WHCD where Obama roasted him was 14 years ago. Trump fatigue is going to become a very real thing as his second term drags on.
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Feels like Trump is losing The Big Mo.
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It’s just an understandable story. Everyone has multiple family group chats now. Even great-grandparents are included now in away they weren’t 10-15 years ago.
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This seems like a good thing to pick a fight over for Senate Dems. Some holds on intelligence and DOD appointments would seem like a reasonable move, at least as a way to force some hearings.
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Multi-year NIL contracts might bring back some stability. Even if top players move on, schools would get a transfer like fee.
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Dems need to run to the center. AOC might have the ability to keep the left on board while she does it, but I think that is going to be a challenge for any candidate.
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This is my position. This is quickly becoming Trumps economy, no need to change the story.
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If Apple is struggling to get AI implemented on its phones, it is hard for me to see the AI-induced white-collar job apocalypse happening in the near term.
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Does anyone know what tarrifs have actually gone into place. There been so many announcements, delays and re-announcements it’s hard keep up with. The uncertainty isn’t good, but has anyone had ti start paying higher duties yet.
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I do wonder if Dems owning the 200k-500k cohort hurts the economy if that group starts to pull back on spending because of political vibes. That group powers a lot of discretionary consumption.
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I worry that Milei’s experience in Argentina will allow the administration to rationalize sticking with unpopular/bad policies longer than many are expecting.
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The decline starting in 2015 or so isn’t great either.
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I feel like this is a staple in the 2-6 year old demographic.
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The tide needs to go out to figure out who is swimming naked.
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People are going to love the more expensive goods and higher interest rates that come along with getting rid of the trade deficit.
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Y
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Biden discredited some of the more left wing policies, and it feels like Trump is starting to do the same on the Right. Moderate Neoliberalism might be back in 2026/28.
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It’s going to be everyone’s problem. When it bites consumers through interest rates and dinning out it won’t be popular here.
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Hopefully Europe will step up and help Ukraine hold the line, and hopefully at some point the US regains its senses.