johnsides.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University - https://johnsides.org/
Publisher of Good Authority - https://goodauthority.org/
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399 following
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If Trump can get people to root for Duke basketball, that might be the pinnacle of negative polarization.
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What do you make of the Cutler, Hassell, and Reuning finding that independent voters are also more likely to support candidates they perceive as extreme?
Seems to complicate the notion that you need moderates to run for marginal seats to appeal to indies. But I wouldn't dismiss that notion either!
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Median tenure in Congress is currently 8 years. I'm just not sure term limits would have much effect. 72% of U.S. Representatives have served 12 years or less!
www.caseyburgat.com/p/congressio...
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It's amazing how much Trump 2.0 repeats the same mistakes of Trump 1.0.
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1) Sarah gives a master class on the factors that have weakened Congress.
2) Executive aggrandizement isn't just about the president taking power, but Congress giving it away.
3) Congressional Dems do have *tools* to push back on Trump, but few *targets*.
+ Cory Booker, tariffs, & more!
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More context: goodauthority.org/news/vaccine...
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The data are from a panel and the 2022-24 changes are similar if we isolate only those interviewed in both years
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Here is the piece: www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/o...
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Nevertheless, what seemed like a settled issue isn't settled anymore.
The takeaway: The more important difference between Democrats and Republicans isn’t whether they are men or women.
It’s how they think men and women should behave.
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What's more, there is little evidence that people are changing their *behavior*.
Women are not leaving the workforce en masse to get married, have babies, and be tradwives.
Men are increasingly doing housework and shopping.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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But of course public opinion is complex. Many people, including in the GOP, also endorse men having traditionally feminine traits, like being caring. And they disapprove of boorish masculine behaviors.
goodauthority.org/news/masculi...
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Is this because (1) people's minds are changing or (2) people now feel comfortable saying what they've always thought?
We think it's #1. Other gender attitudes aren't changing, just ones about traditional gender roles. If it were #2 we'd see lots of different attitudes change.
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Republicans have become more likely to agree that “what it means to be a man has changed and I don’t think that has been good for society.”
About 75% of both GOP men and women say this.
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Republican men and women are also increasingly likely to say that society is too "soft and feminine," according to @prripoll.bsky.social data.
The increase is particularly large among GOP women.
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That's fair
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goodauthority.org/news/the-pro...
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Short answer is we don't know but hopefully with more and better data, we'll have a sense of how much changes in turnout vs. changes in vote choice contributed to the 2020-24 shifts. Catalist has sometimes include such an analysis in their post-election "What Happened" reports.
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Kudos to @jedkolko.bsky.social, Emily Badger, and Alicia Parlapiano for doing a lot of heavy-lifting in the data analysis.