leedrutman.bsky.social
Political scientist. Believer in democracy, whatever the hell that is.
- Substack: https://leedrutman.substack.com
- Podcast: http://politicsinquestion.com
- Senior Fellow: New America
- Co-Founder: https://www.fixourhouse.org
450 posts
9,489 followers
920 following
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Oh, I don't want Elon's endorsement -- This is my provocation for him to start a spoiler third party that makes the case for reform clear because of how vulnerable the system is to people like him.
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www.nytimes.com/2025/06/09/o...
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To represent the diversity of this country, we need more like a six-party system
leedrutman.substack.com/p/how-did-am...
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Alas, support for a party of the center is limited.
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yes, indeed it is, because no single new party would be immediately popular enough to displace the two dominant parties.
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Source: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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It's not a perfect tool (there is no perfect tool), but I think we are relying way too much on polling data and learning from the most recent election and way too little on realistic projections forward (based on historical patterns and realistic expectations)
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Agent-based modeling also lets you test how likely your expected outcome would be -- and what else would have to be true for things to go that way.
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I've been playing around a bit with agent-based models this week, and it does force you to be honest about your expectations for the future if you take into account realistic updating and strategic actions.
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Maybe. He's mad as a chainsaw.
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No sane political party should want him in their ranks. He should instead cause a crisis in the party system that finally moves us out of two-party doom loop and into reform.
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Left-leaning news influencers are now as likely to be on Bluesky as X (almost)
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The big question is: how do we break this cycle.
My view, of course: change the party system by changing how we vote. Easier said than done, of course
The full piece is well worth a read: www.weekendreading.net/p/the-re-eme...
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As @mikepod.bsky.social notes: "Voters, increasingly distrustful of institutions and clamoring for substantial change that neither party is delivering, have punished incumbent parties in nine of the past ten elections—a D-R-D-R presidential alternation pattern unseen in over a century."
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Unfortunately, these numbers for the Democrats are just oof oof oof face-plant sad.