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marketscalpel.bsky.social
Sector/Industry Rotation | Macro | Corporate Finance | Strategy
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Very heavy volume Thu comfortably exceeding Mar multi-witching with block trade volume doubling from already elevated levels earlier in the wk setting a new all time record. It ain't what you know, it's who you know; you really want to play with those rules?

submitted 11 hours ago • 0 comments

$ZN / Ponzis - Pattern is complex/hard to analyse but some chance the final mini leg of the tortured overlapping rally from May is about to complete, with px also approaching ST resistance testing the high from last wk:

submitted 11 hours ago • 0 comments

$CL / Energy - yep, but pragmatically as a rule you always wanna be intervening in the direction of mkts and this move was in fact on the cards cyclically and pattern wise, now likely maybe 2/3rd thru the C leg of an ABC in time but arriving at a possible price objective rn:

submitted 11 hours ago • 0 comments

$DAX - Better short cycle definition than in US mkts, with the recently dominant 1.5wk pattern due to bottom probably today, and bulls looking for support at the early Jun lows to hold:

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Energy - So one day on and all Energy subsectors now in the top 10 as news breaks of escalating Mid East war drums. This administration is so fkin crony capitalist/insider trading crooked it makes me want to puke

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Fairly heavy volume Tue incl block trades, concentrated in Energy esp E&P/Equip & Svcs (and Utils esp Electricity). Energy looks nr the top of a flag like pattern; this could be M&A frontrunning

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

subsector leaderboard fyi:

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Housing Complex/Bubblers - yep, downtrend line decisively broken with Bubblers now wkly top ranked subsector, and some chance we are fairly early in the C leg of an ABC corrective

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

$DX Dollar Idx - Making another run at that downtrend line rn, with the action heavily overlapping thru the last wks of May. I think we're in a sideways holding pattern, suspect the downtrend breaks and likely a whipsaw, but one that generates quite a bit of excitement!

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

US Internals - marginal new US momo 52wk highs Mon confirmed in the Nasdaq Comp, which along with fresh cumulative breadth/AD Line momo highs means the mkt is again technically in gear higher, with USD/Ponzis in a range. Zzzzzzzz fer now

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

$UKA FTSE All Share Idx - Less sterling sensitive broad mkt for a change outperforming big caps, now within a whisker of the early Mar ATH. A breakout may or may not happen ST, but am convinced this is the final leg of a major ascending wedge developing since GFC. End is neigh imv!

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Fed o/n RRP (bot win) vs S&P 500 inverted - 2 mnths on and got a somewhat atypically large $150bn build into May month end, seemingly substantially ploughed back equities last wk. in which case the surprise is gains weren't more spectacular!

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

subsector leaderboard fyi:

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

@support.bsky.team Any chance you can put the copy post url function back in the ... menu?

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Software - yep, but breaking out of an SRS flag Apr/May in Jun setting a 16m SRS high fri testing the Jan '24 ATH, with px probing above the Dec ATH, but obv soft on the recent rally and rel volume tentative on the current leg. Expecting a whipsaw:

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Low volume melt-up continues

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

Housing Complex/Bubblers - yep Bubblers setting a 3.5yr SRS low low confirmed by an obv momo low. Looks terrible in many ways but now a - so far minor - trendline break of the downtrend for the decline from the Q4 px ATH, and perhaps potential for rel and maybe even abs gains esp if Ponzis perform

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

USD crosses fyi:

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

$TSLA - yep, and for the avoidance of doubt let's zoom in to appreciate the ABC trendline break came Wed in advance of the billionaires' bunfight. You love to see it!

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

$ZN / Ponzis - yep, disaster Ponzi headlines abound but the 10yr hit a 4wk high Tue, and tho the advance off the midmonth lows appears a complex hard to analyse corrective affair, at 1 higher degree almost certainly forms part of a wider flag thu the Apr low. Sideways for a while...

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

subsector leaderboard fyi:

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Am travelling and my stuff has just crashed for the 2nd time this morning, but another weak volume day Tue with large cap making all the running. Question is whether the mkt can limp thru to the summer doldrums autopilot or heads south ST (still my expectation)

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

DJ Ind Machinery - Testing the LT SRS uptrend line off the dotcom era value capitulation low:

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Industrials ranking to industry group level (1wk sort) - rel weakness broadening internally in key cyclicals, with Ind Machinery setting a 3yr SRS low Mon, along with Transports led by Del Svcs and Containers & Pkg all at >52wk SRS lows:

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments