mcjamesz.bsky.social
I got lost somewhere along the way.
🏳️🌈 I-ADHD, Depression, Anxiety. Nerdy.
🇬🇧🏴 Manchester.
Interested in data analysis, politics, maps, dogs, strategic games, history.
591 posts
326 followers
438 following
Active Commenter
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There's not a great polling archive easily accessible for most popular PM candidate unfortunately. We're in uncharted territory as far as the UK is concerned, the last time a party broke the duopoly was the 1920s, & the lowest voteshare for a seat majority ever is Labour's 2024 33.7%.
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Mamdani won a Democratic party city mayor primary, with ranked voting, in New York, whilst being a prominent elected official in the city's legislature.
That's very different to establishing a new party in the entire UK without a voter & party base to start from.
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It's what you expect to happen using first past the post.
If there's any plurality getting 8+% more of the vote than its nearest challenger, it's expected to get a clear majority in a FPTP election. It's how the electoral system works by design.
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The quickest way to accrue a base for a new party is to identify it with a real, known quantity to voters.
Without Corbyn, it's just another breakaway group unable to identify why it's a better bet than (say) the established Green party or dissenters in Labour. The Change UK problem.
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I'd guess the Greens wouldn't be jumping over themselves to get him. Half their seats are rural Tory facing seats; getting Corbyn would really cement their socialist credentials & repel a lot of those oblivious protest voters.
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Cutting Britain's emissions is not the same as making a significant impact on climate change.
Britain can't stop the comparative major increase in Chinese, Indian & others emissions. The fact that we've halved emissions is great, but everyone has to be aboard this train for it to be meaningful.
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X, Facebook & GB News have given them the tools to radicalise more than ever, & they've succeeded - on themselves as well. They're drinking their own powdered squash. They're unable to comprehend that there's a much bigger cohort not in their self contained information ecosystem.
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I think the 2021 Tory scum comment broke through, a lot of people believe she's actively hostile to them.
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Not a representative sample, included no major cities, no Scotland or Wales, only 4 councils in the North.
But still the national vote projection from those results was Reform 30%, Lib Dem 17%, Green 11%.
Not sure why you think a 163 seat gain should have more attention than a 677 seat gain.
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I'm sorry, but 13 council by elections are not a representative sample in any way. Are you trolling or do you really not understand that?
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That's not a poll mate.
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Why do you think the media coverage should be in proportion to their representation in parliament?
Reform got 14% of the vote, Lib Dems 12%, Greens 6%.
Reform are polling 29%, Lib Dems 15%, Greens 11%.
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I know it's a tangent, but why 77pc? Are there Telegraph readers who don't understand the % symbol? Is it meant to draw people into reading it as they're not quite sure if pc is % and they'll just clarify...
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It's an oversimplification of net change, that does seem untrustworthy.
Yougov have 3% of Lib Dems from 2024 voting Con & 5% of Cons voting Lib Dem. Ie Net 0.8% of the overall vote, excluding loss to non-voting. So about 3/4 of a blue man moves to orange.
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I don't know whose figures they're using, but a quick check of Yougov's May crosstabs shows it's not close to their data.
LibDem 2024:
= 80%
->Lab 6%
->Ref 5
->Con 4
->Gre 3
Lab 2024:
=60%
->LD 15%
->Ref 10
->Gr 9
->Con 4
->SNP 1
->PC 1
(Data excludes nonvoters)
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Is the drift to Reform amongst people of working age primarily individuals switching Lab->Ref, or is there a lot more movement between parties & non-voters?
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Hunt's NI cuts have completely snookered Labour into engineering their own oblivion anyway.
And is it a win if they've already surrendered the ground to Reform?
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That's one of his basic tactics, accuse the other side of doing what you're doing. His cult members eat it up.
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In March, Yougov ran a tactical voting poll; the Reform v Labour two way battle was Current Conservatives (then 22%) vote 50% Ref, 24% Con & 10% Lab. Con do pick up 33% Lib/ 22% Lab votes in Con v Ref.
Short story, if it looks like it's Ref v Lab most places, I think the floor is nearer 10%.
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I've worked this out before: for a sample size ~2400, SNP 2% nationally is equivalent to 13-38% in Scotland.
So it does tell you the SNP aren't hitting 40%, but not much else.
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Maybe they're meta-ing this, & they see it as a way of prompting Starmer's resignation & replacement, as the only way of changing direction, after this disastrous mess of a week failed to prompt a significant rebellion?
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I'm sure those Doge firings had no impact.
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The casual arrogant dismissal of "working class people" by many of the people you're surrounded by, I can see that being a stubborn motivator.
Unable to see bigotry, because he's too distracted by the casual dismissal of bigotry as working class.
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That font is disgusting.
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If it needs Greens andor Plaid, (Gaza) Independents, SDLP & Alliance are also considerations. Assuming Sinn Fein don't decide to attend parliament to stop the Reform/Tory/DUP/UUP numbers adding up.
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Polls are moving to a 2 way battle for government with a lot of fracturing. Reform ~30%, with everyone but Labour below 20% means Reform are close to majority territory. Lib Dems, Tories & SNP in the 30-90 range, & Greens, PC & Ind ~6-8.
Things can change, but it doesn't look 4+way anymore.
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You can't run a campaign based on how bad your oppo is in government if you've been in power for 5 years, & things are barely better.
If you're in government, you run on your record, unless you have the charisma of Boris Johnson (to create an end of politics schism).
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No, some politicians do that eg Kier Starmer. Some politicians try to change what other people think eg Nigel Farage. In the past we had a lot more that would do the latter.
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People weigh up the arguments they hear. If Reform, Tories & Labour are all telling them the immigration is wrong, then it's not surprising they believe it.
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The Conservatives are already facing oblivion. Boris Johnson still has attraction for many Reform voters, & Tories remaining voters like him more than current options. There are people that despise him, but they've already gone elsewhere. He is a good communicator, when Tories & Labour have none.
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Requiring Nigel Farage to wear trousers.
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It's normal to weight polls by past votes to get a representative sample. The question is about how people voted in 2014, not about their vote now.
Do you think they're using incorrect data? For instance, a UKwide poll should weight Brexit vote ~51:49 in favour of Remain now, due to mortality.
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Yes, you've got a trade deal with the country that first Brexited the world, & has been desperate for a trade deal with USA since 2016. All it took was promising not to force us to eat chlorinated chicken & hormone stuffed cows.
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You missed #FBPE #followbackfriday & many offshoots? Those movements were to try & raise the visibility of your account by promised mutual follows. Every Friday would be a bombard of tweets sending out lists of @s, if you didn't block the hashtag. I blocked the hashtag, & got no followers.
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While most Reform voters say they would 100% vote despite never having voted before, your 80 year old Conservative voter isn't sure if they'll vote, but they've voted Tory in every election since 1964. If you take their answers at face value you have a nowcast, if you adjust you have a forecast.
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People polled often say they will vote more often than the general population in similar cohorts does, & people saying don't know about their voting intention may be being bashful. Nowcasters don't adjust for these known phenomenon; Forecasters do.
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India bigger than Pakistan, so Pakistan give 20% of country to India, be forced to have no allies, & clear Karachi to be given to Trump ltd to turn into a resort?
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As a data visualisation, I really don't like this. Can you do it as 5 stacked bars with colouring for each of 0 to 10?
It's really hard to determine what proportion is either side of any number, & then compare that with the other classes with this visualisation.
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Recent polls have 18-30% of Tory 2024 voters voting Reform, & 8-12% of Labour 2024 voters voting Reform. The 2024 vote was about 10:7, Labour:Conservative.
So Reform's new vote has ~3 Tory voters for each 2 Labour voters. (Between 7:4 & 5:4).
Reform is polling double+ its 2024 result.
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Reform are polling double+ the 2024 vote.
If most Labour constituencies are to be lost to Reform, at election a Lab/Ref voter is worth double.
Labour are still fighting the last election, enticing the swing voter & relying on the left to vote to get the Tories out. Only they're the "Tories" now.
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I'm guessing American = from USA, given the recently deceased pope was from Argentina?
Does this mean USA gets reduced aggressive expansion, extra diplomatic reputation & cheaper advisors?
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Omg that's grim.
Find out now do habitually rate Reform higher than others - due to methodology that uses self-assessed likelihood to vote & excludes squeezed don't knows. They're firmly nowcasting, not forecasting.
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Is Liz Truss still a Tory?
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Who is saying this? I mean is there a demographic this prevails in? Where does it come from? Why is it the UK government is deemed to be behind this? How are they supposed to do this? How wide spread is this conspiracy, is it just London? Does The Day Today have a new series?
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You’re all such Bluesky dweebs reading the MSM… the thing which, as an aside, that keeps popping up unprompted in entirely unrelated conversations is…. Keir Starmer’s plan to dim the sun.
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www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...