Profile avatar
mikedonnelly.bsky.social
Chief Economist at a tech company Priors: IRS, IHS Global Insight, DRI, WEFA, Wall Street (J&W Seligman) Former PCBE President (Philly NABE) #EconTwitterIRL 2023 & 2024 Views my own, not my employers’
306 posts 127 followers 91 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
Posts 20 Comments 30

President Trump: “You can stop wars with tariffs.” April 2, 2025 So why didn't we try to tariff Iran first? www.whitehouse.gov/videos/presi...

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Here is what we just destroyed in Iran. IYKYK

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Did not age well, we just bombed Iran

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Fed isn't cutting rates, but they are easing up in other ways. QT has gotten less severe

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

New Fed SEP just dropped. 2025: GDP forecast weaker unemployment higher inflation, total and core higher rate path, unchanged 2026 same as above except one less rate cut www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

Not like the war in Ukraine is showing the world the ability to produce batteries is critical to national defense, oh wait…

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

Tariff Revenue as a % of Imported Goods, Trump loves tariffs. Obama a slight uptick? Biden much better than I realized, tried to bring them down

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

Losing the plot

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

Feels like Barron applied and didn't get in

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

Tariffs are going up and up. Tariffs are like a tsunami crossing the ocean—markets reacted to the alert, but now it’s quiet. Impact won’t hit consumer data until August, and GDP not until 3Q release on Oct 30. Buckle up.

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

1AM ? c'mon

submitted 36 days ago • 0 comments

April 23 was the new tariff day. Annualized tariffs jumped from $130B to $235B in May. +80%, with ~$100B to be passed through. Supercore retail is ~$4T, so 2.5% m/m if fully passed on at retail more to maintain margins. (Big m/m, CPI just 0.2% m/m in April)

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

JFC - the people sending the pizzas are not just telling judges they know where they live. They are using the name of a a family member of a Judge who was murdered.

submitted 41 days ago • 50 comments

Data showing no tariff impact? Data often is mid-month or perhaps up to the 3rd week of the month. Revisions get the rest later. When did the "new" tariff collection happen? April 23rd. Have to wait until June - July when the May data is released

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

Seriously delinquent balances (90+ days) for student loans jumped 7.7% in Q1 based on FRBNY data. Delinquencies will likely continue to increase now that repayment terms have resumed after a 5yr pause. #econsky #studentloans #debt

submitted 41 days ago • 3 comments

Goldman: “We expect the US’s effective tariff rate to increase by about 13pp this year to its highest level since the 1930s. … higher tariffs will likely raise equipment costs and discourage investment, lowering the capital stock and GDP in the long run.”

submitted 41 days ago • 1 comment

Oh

submitted 41 days ago • 32 comments

ADAS (FSD) Best to Worst A) Cameras, Radar, LIDAR GM, Lexus, Chinese EVs, Waymo, Volvo B) Cameras & LIDAR BMW, Audi, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Polestar C) Cameras & Radar Ford, Tesla (2021 & earlier), VW, Stellantis, Jaguar D) Camera only Tesla (2022-current)

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

The Pope running for US President in 2028 vs Trump or Vance would be the funniest thing ever. Every founding father would be screaming. @peark.es

submitted 45 days ago • 0 comments

China's GDP is 5.3% y/y only 3 countries in the world are growing faster, yet prices are contracting. One of those two can't be true. Bank of China just told us which number is real.

submitted 48 days ago • 0 comments