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🔴The Founding Myth of Morgan McSweeney Why reports of Keir Starmer's chief adviser's supposed campaigning genius do not appear to match up with the facts www.adambienkov.co.uk/p/the-foundi...

More than half of people who voted Labour in July say they are considering switching to the Lib Dems or the Greens at the next general election, according to new @thinksinsight.bsky.social shared with PolHome These voters appear easier to win back than those considering Reform, the poll found

It’s not like Labour hasn’t been warned that this might happen. www.politicshome.com/news/article...

In short, Starmer has taken a massive hit among Labour voters, for no gain elsewhere, while boosting Farage's popularity, including doubling his ceiling among Labour voters. I.e., the political scientists were right, Morgan McSweeney was horrendously wrong.

What an insane position to have gotten himself into www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Still, I'm sure the galaxy brains in No10 will be along in a minute to tell us all this is part of the plan.

When 14 bishops, senior rabbis and imams sign a letter demanding a change in the government's tone then maybe there is something wrong with Keir Starmer's political strategy

Today's newsletter: more from me about Downing Street's curious pride in its resemblance to a failed Labour government and why I think that is revealing:

“Some are beginning to worry that the silence isn’t serving to hide the moves of a master strategist, but is instead masking the absence of a plan – and validating the fears of a Reform-obsessed government making policy via focus group.” www.theneweuropean.co.uk/james-ball-w...

Deep breath. Be honest. If this list had been titled "In just 10 months, the Tories..." you would have been spitting at the screen with outrage. How are Labour any different? If you still support them - why? It's a very simple question.

A few ways to read this - the EU using its greater power to wring out every concession and: - an SPS deal, even with long term access to UK fishing grounds, has bigger benefits for UK consumers than EU ones - EU students' *spending* in Britain is many times bigger than the loss of international fees

Terrific column by @robertshrimsley.bsky.social: www.ft.com/content/3daf...

Where @stephenkb.bsky.social @financialtimes.com nails the yawning gap between Labour’s immigration policy and its promise to deliver growth and repair public services. The politics of delusion. on.ft.com/4kcdVPT Migration cuts are a luxury the UK cannot afford

This

The EU-UK pre-summit negotiations are getting spicy ahead of Monday summit — EU member states digging in on mobility and fish, UK trying (and failing) to lobby capitals over Commisson’s head. Some trenchant briefings to me @andybounds.bsky.social and @georgewparker.bsky.social on.ft.com/4jVUMSF

Well done @itvnews.bsky.social on pointing out the soaring rise in immigration “since we completed Brexit” - a key factor. This should be pointed out to Farage (who championed Brexit) in every interview

A comprehensive comms success.

Labour's immigration announcement today is a reflection of the paucity of honest debate by BOTH political parties over the last decade on this issue. Labour has never made a counter-argument, or been honest about economic cost of immigration curbs, so it's stuck making Tory/Reform arguments 1/n

The penny will only drop when the pounds dribble away.

The danger for the government is that it fails to control the things voters worry about - small boats and asylum hotels - while curbing the kinds of immigration that are popular and beneficial like scientists and care workers. my piece for @theobserveruk.bsky.social observer.co.uk/news/politic...

The "Let's train our own" gang never advance a plan that involves training a domestic workforce *first* before evicting the foreign workers currently employed in those key jobs. The sequencing is always upside down. And that tells you everything about the ugliness of what they are really saying.

Care work is a migration route that is desperately needed, has helped at least stem the sector's recruitment crisis, has a knock-on effect on A&E/ambulance wait times, and isn't particularly unpopular voters. yeah let's hammer it

Any politician who wants to ban migration for care homes should be forced to wait 9 hours for the toilet. I imagine pandering to anti-immigration groups would then feel as painful and illogical as it does to disabled and older people left without care workers. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Left: Yvette Cooper, "We will be closing the care worker visa as well" Right: House of Commons Library, "131,000 vacancies for care workers"

Jonn is as usual correct! If you want to address the concern that Britain is broken best not to break it any further!

Eighty years ago, enemies laid down their arms. Since then, we, Europeans, have built something extraordinary: a Union of peace, democracy, and solidarity. An anchor of stability. Our Union was born as a peace project, and it remains one today.

a “landmark” deal that will add £4.8 billion to the economy, around one fifth of one per cent. A new customs union with the EU would boost the economy by 2.2 per cent, more than 20 times what Britain has gained from the long sought-after Indian agreement. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...

ÂŁ4.8 billion - how much UK will gain annually with new trade deal with India ÂŁ140 billion - how much UK loses out annually by being outside the EU Single Market

Well so much for that “Brexit benefit”. Really didn’t last long.

Since 2008 average wealth has almost tripled. But median wealth has fallen, because nearly 90% of people have gotten poorer. While the richest 1% have taken more than 95% of the new money. You work and work and work, and they take more and more and more.

As I've said before, everything about current British politics can be summed up by 'the (electoral) beatings will continue until morale improves'.

Labour’s “Farage is right, don’t vote for him” strategy, which was so successful on Thursday, looks set to continue.

Mark Carney, "The lessons of Brexit are beginning to be applied to the US" "When you break trading relationships you end up with slower growth"

The key chart right now: Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers. This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.

We can’t even *convict* foreign criminals. Nor homegrown ones. Because - and I know ministers like to pretend this isn’t true, but we will keep saying it - the criminal justice system is in absolute meltdown. So maybe address that before making little league tables of which foreign is the baddest.

Nationalisation of utilities would save the UK billions, according to new report. @left-foot-forward.bsky.social leftfootforward.org/2025/04/reve...