natalievotes.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

New domestic military branch just dropped

submitted 3 hours ago • 7 comments

You know what could have predicted this? A survival analysis, which is absolutely a tool that exists within normal political science scholarship. The limitations on such a research design are data and time.

submitted 4 hours ago • 0 comments

Damn, I miss the reprieve felt after the evening news on Fridays

submitted 5 hours ago • 0 comments

“Independence day is canceled because of fear of secret police raids” is really a level of on the nose political symbolism you just can’t make up.

submitted 14 hours ago • 59 comments

Idk how to tell seniors that their annual prescription drugs cost more than $6k/yr, but.........

submitted 5 hours ago • 0 comments

[stares in project 2025]

submitted 5 hours ago • 19 comments

I genuinely think Nate Silver believes that Joe Biden shut down the schools in 2020. And if you told him the problem with that line of thinking he’d of course say he didn’t believe it but then immediately go back to believing it, there’s alot of people like that.

submitted 5 hours ago • 11 comments

All the more reason to make sure every primary race (not just congress!) has a challenger. Even if it's a long shot, it helps the Dems see who's got the guts and the ambition for office.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

As I keep saying, I do not think people know that there is basically no legal way to immigrate here by applying.

submitted 2 days ago • 50 comments

There's a bigger story here about how competition over students, research monies, and status have made universities particularly flat footed at this moment. They have evolved to see everything in terms of strategic positioning, not broader, existential threat.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

fwiw and I know it’s not much I am a Jew who lives in New York City and while I am neither afraid of Zohran Mamdani nor his views on Israel and Palestine, I’m actually scared as hell about the horrific wave of racism, Islamophobia, and xenophobia that has been unleashed since his primary win

submitted 2 days ago • 31 comments

In the political literature this is known as donating for access. It’s very common. Campaign donations should be interpreted as strategic manifestations of political goals, not expressions of true preference.

submitted 3 days ago • 13 comments

In a shocking move, a political party is doing what political parties do!

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

this is why i am pretty confident there will not be a meaningful attempt to do an end run around mamdani. a lot of elite cuomo support seemed to be based on “well, he’s probably going to win and he’s a vindictive asshole and i don’t want to be on his bad side.”

submitted 3 days ago • 152 comments

if being a nazi is inconvenient for you tom you could try not doing that

submitted 3 days ago • 99 comments

the freakout is very specifically because many of those boxes would go to babies who are not white, and you have to understand American culture (including mainstream media) through that lens. white people will unhesitatingly screw over their own kids if it means also screwing over the nonwhite kids

submitted 3 days ago • 31 comments

stop running away from trans people and fight back

submitted 4 days ago • 23 comments

There’s just so much: the victory of a new political talent, the loss of an old tyrant, the possibilities of alliance & positive strategizing, the hope for a more just future, the cracking of the last generation’s stranglehold on power. Also the joy and force of Tish James! Listen to her voice!

submitted 4 days ago • 27 comments

Cuomo spent the whole campaign trashing the Democratic Party while Mamdani never shied away from being a Democrat. For both centrists and leftists it's an important lesson: if you want to win a party primary you should outwardly like the party.

submitted 4 days ago • 68 comments

what’s funny is that if pro-cuomo centrist democrats were less myopic they might see that mamdani was running the kind of campaign that could help rebuild the party brand — accessible with an outsider persona and a focus on “kitchen table” issues.

submitted 4 days ago • 211 comments

I’d like to thank the international brotherhood of sex pests for making this Cuomo L possible

submitted 4 days ago • 9 comments

Oh no I think I’m catching a case of The Hope.

submitted 4 days ago • 4 comments

“In Pasadena last week, a man stepped out of his unmarked vehicle at an intersection, unholstered his pistol and aimed it at a group of pedestrians before returning to his car… That incident left the police chief of Pasadena resigned to figure out whether it was a crime or part of a federal raid.”

submitted 4 days ago • 211 comments

Aside from the concerning police state implications, if the Guard needs help defining "the Greater LA area" ask actual Angelenos how they feel about including Riverside and San Bernardino in the LA metro area. They'll figure out the boundaries real quick!

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

I cannot say often enough that for all his narcissistic swanning about the stage "agonizing" about "his" decision, the Constitution flatly forbids Trump from attacking a sovereign country that has not attacked the US without obtaining congressional consent.

submitted 7 days ago • 53 comments

Whoa, do elites really lack sufficient control of the media/information environment of the NYC mayoral race discourse that they're worried that normal voters will subvert their preferences? Pls explain to folks out in the West.

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Awful.

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Ten years of Trump and Trumpism goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/ten-years-...

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Please keep sharing this. Ant is always in the streets & showing up for people. We gotta show up for him & demand his release. Mayor Bass office number - (213) 978-0600 Monica Rodriguez office number - (213) 473-7007 Imelda Padilla office number - (213) 473-7006

submitted 8 days ago • 2 comments

Anyway Juneteenth is pretty much over and I had a lovely day off, but this is your infrequent reminder that @ironcircuscomics.bsky.social is Black-owned and woman-owned, there are literal structural and institutional forces pushing against that every day, and your support means the world to me. ♥

submitted 9 days ago • 3 comments

The US denied a visa to a French lawmaker who is critical of Trump policies. Can you imagine how much the GOP would never shut up if the French denied a visa to one of them? www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/w...

submitted 9 days ago • 42 comments

That’s right, we’re suing the feds.

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Everyone should read this article, regardless of what they thought of campus protests, and ask how any institution can expect to retain its academic freedom if it makes a deal with this government, which is a personalist dictatorship in its conduct of national security affairs.

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

i love when rich new yorkers are like “tax me too much and ill leave.” no they won’t. new yorkers are obsessed with new york, especially wealthy new yorkers. where else can they feel like the emperor in his glittering imperial core? indianapolis? be serious

submitted 9 days ago • 126 comments

What were they actually gonna do here? Ask every brown-enough person for their papers to go to the fucking baseball game? This is the most slam-dunk, anti-American thing I can think of. You need a passport to go to a Major League Baseball game now? Malpractice not to make a huge deal out of this.

submitted 9 days ago • 212 comments

federal agents at Dodger Stadium.

submitted 9 days ago • 402 comments

Chatbots — LLMs — do not know facts and are not designed to be able to accurately answer factual questions. They are designed to find and mimic patterns of words, probabilistically. When they’re “right” it’s because correct things are often written down, so those patterns are frequent. That’s all.

submitted 9 days ago • 558 comments